Yes. Lost after 26. He was talking about a fall off from 26 to 27 so thought the context was clear. I ususally spell it out b/c you can see it listed as 26 free agent (as in- free agent after the 26 season) or 27 free agent (as in, free agent before the 27 season). **** gets confusing!
I expect you should shut your mouth and enjoy Ullola winning a cy young and Blubaugh being an all star
IF they trade Paredes and or Pena I would fully expect them to get big league pieces back that they like- ala the Kyle Tucker deal. Alvarez will be 30 so I wouldn't worry too much about him aging. Walker- yeah- I'm not sure we don't move off of him, but him Altuve and Hader should be a little to possibly a lot worse. However, Cam Smith should be much better if he's the dude I (and Dana) think he is going to be. Melton, Dezenzo, or Matthews could hit as an above average player. We have a farm system and FA time between now and then to develop, sign and trade, and we should have money to do all of those things if Crane spends to the max. I really see 27 being as good or better than 26 with 2028 potentially stepping off a cliff if they don't do a really good job of developing, but with enough talent in the org still in 28 that if they do a good job developing 4 or 5 guys to replace: Walker, Paredes, Pena, Javier & Garcia that they will be just fine. Keep in mind- they don't have to develop 1 for 1 replacements internally for them (that would be best but not necessary) as that's 80 or 90 million coming off the books (20 for Walker and 20 for Javier) my guess is 15-20 for Paredes and Pena each, and 6M or so for Garcia. So, you could sign a star level free agent (we won't but you could) plus a couple average type guys for whatever you don't develop between here and there. If not I'd trade everything not named Altuve and Correa (1 year of Yordon, Yainer, Brown, Hader should net you something like 6 top 100 type propsects plus some other pretty good dudes) and hope that the rebuild isn't particularly painful (which it shouldn't be). Either way I'm not worried about that.
I will give you this- you certainly have your own mind when it comes to prospects. I hear you talking up guys that I think suck all the time and poo poo'ing guys that I think are pretty good regularly.
I think it will be close. I don't expect everyone hurt to rebound completely. I also expect some things to go wrong that are unexpected, and the Astros are just too thin to patch them up. Might still win the division. The Astros saving grace has been the AL just doesn't have any great teams at the moment.
They need to Sign/Develop/Trade for a couple of aces and they will remain dominant. The lineup should be a very good lineup even if Altuve ages. Gotta get Altuve out of the top of the lineup though.
I think the AAA roster will be better/deeper than the last 2-3 years because of the light deadline and deep big league roster, which should potentially mitigate unexpected injuries/disintegrations. Matthews, Melton, Dezenzo, Leon, Corona, Whitcomb, and Price are all slated to be in AAA with another year of experience, and they’ll have some actual prospects (Barber, Cole, Palma) to fill out depth instead of mining the minor league free agent market for AAAA guys like Short and Guillorme and Hudson (although I suspect they’ll still need to bring in a AAAA SS if they don’t resign somebody like Edwin Diaz). And I think the same is true on the pitching side. Ullola, Fleury, Pecko, Gordon, and Dombroski are all a year older/closer and should make for better insurance than the last 2 seasons.
Just like with the Tucker trade, a trade of Paredes or Pena would likely decrease the number of expected 2027 wins even if it is a great trade. I do agree that there’s a lot that can/will change in the next 18 months, and that’s especially true with a roster that doesn’t have a lot of certainty; their good players are either old, injury-prone, or nearing free agency, and their best prospects all carry pretty significant bust risk. We might circle back to this post in a year and laugh, as Smith claims his MVP trophy, Dezenzo and Melton and Matthews all are polishing up 3+ win seasons, and the topic of Alvarez is more about his hall of fame trajectory than his decline.
That happens. One can look at this season as a great example of things that go right while a lot of things go wrong. Players don't typically get younger, though.
The dynamic has changed since he got hurt and they traded for Correa. I suspect they would still welcome an extension, but the terms would probably have to be pretty team friendly. Something like $70M/5yrs with some significant bonuses or a vesting 6th year sounds like it might work, but only if Paredes is really happy in Houston and is prioritizing securing his bag over a potentially much bigger payday. He will still be in his 20's if he reaches free agency so he's got a pretty high monetary ceiling if he does that as a guy putting up an 800+ OPS with adequate 3B defense. I've made this comment several times over the last few months, but Houston's position player depth gives them a lot of flexibility to follow where the market leads them. I suspect Dana Brown's order of operations this offseason will be: Discuss team-friendly extensions with Pena, Brown, Abreu, and Paredes. Survey the trade value of his players: Walker: if a team will take on 90%+ of his contract and give up an Org top 10 prospect, do it. Paredes: look for a deal similar to the Tucker trade. Paredes is not as good as Tucker but has an extra year of control. Pena: look for a deal slightly lesser to the Juan Soto trade from Washington: 2 MLB Top 50 prospects plus 1-2 MLB Top 100 prospects. Pena also has 2 years of control remaining. Meyers: if a team is willing to give up a prospect that would fit in Houston's org top 5, do it. Abreu: if a team is willing to give up 2 prospects that would fit in Houston's org top 10, do it. check the value of Urias, Sanchez, and Dubon. All 3 are valuable but if another team values them much higher, they can be replaced. Add a #2 SP. The trade market could be focused on Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Mackenzie Gore, Pablo Lopez, and Drew Rasmussen and the cost could center around some combo of Matthews, Melton, and Ullola. The free agent market features Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Zac Gallen, Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Merrill Kelly, German Marquez, Max Scherzer, Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez, and Brandon Woodruff; there's a lot of variance in value in that list, and Houston would likely have to clear payroll in order to sign most of those guys. Determine other needs: Is Salazar ready to be the backup C? If not, they'll need to go get somebody. I personally am high on Salazar and think he will be a good backup and refreshingly good on defense compared to Diaz and Caratini. What is the health/effectiveness of the starting pitching depth behind Hunter Brown (Arrighetti, Walter, Wesneski, Blanco, Garcia, Javier, McCullers)? If Javier doesn't shine the rest of this season and into the playoffs, Houston probably needs 2 SP this offseason instead of just one. They might also be heavily in the market for veterans willing to take a minor league deal for a good chance of eventually being added to the roster. Houston is compromised by having 4 40 man roster spots locked up by players who probably won't pitch before August 2026, if not until 2027. What is the health/effectiveness of the bullpen behind Hader and Abreu (King, Okert, Ort, Sousa)? I think they'll probably need to add a 7th inning guy, but the cost for that should just fit into the budget, whether it comes from the payroll via free agency or from the farm via trade. Way too early 2026 opening day roster prediction: SS Pena 1B Paredes DH Alvarez SS Correa LF Altuve RF Sanchez C Diaz 2B Urias CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Salazar, Dezenzo, Smith Rotation: Brown, Alcantara, Kelly, Javier, Garcia, Alexander Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, King, Ort, Okert, McCullers, France IL: Arrighetti, Walter, Wesneski, Blanco DFA/Traded: Walker, Melton, Leon, Rooney, Hernandez, McCormick, Murray, Sousa, Trammell Free Agents: Valdez, De Los Santos, Kimbrel, Rodgers, Caratini Optioned: Blubaugh, Ullola, Gordon, Fleury, VanWey, Santa, Corona, Whitcomb, Cole, Matthews
I am anxious to see who gets thinned out. I have spent the best part of the last year expecting extensions of Paredes and Pena. I still think Pena is almost certain but Paredes has me concerned. I prefer him at third over Correa but am unsure how to resolve the log jam there. I think one of them needs to move to second, just not sure which one.
Thank you for not trading Ullola. Arrighetti missing basically all of 25 and 26 is beyond depressing to me.
Did another deep dive into the 5 year outlook. I also went back and looked at previous years to see how closely Houston has followed the projections I've laid out. Neither exercise was pretty. Prior to 2023, I pegged Houston for 97 wins in 2025 and 96 in 2026. 2025 fell short due to essentially losing a net of 10 wins from Tucker (traded) and Alvarez (hurt). The SP also fell short due to injuries. In late 2022, 2026 only had 2 guaranteed contracts on the books (McCullers and Yordan); since then they've added 6 more significant guaranteed contracts (Walker, Altuve, Correa, Javier, Imai, and Hader), and they all could potentially end this season underwater. This team currently projects for 88 wins by my measure, with that holding steady at 88-89 wins thru 2029 before going up to ~93 wins in 2030 as all the contracts come off the books; that assumes average outcomes around continued spending, developing prospects, signing free agents, and making trades. Here's the breakdown: 2026: C: Diaz, Vazquez; 2.8 fwar, $5.5M IF: Walker, Altuve, Pena, Correa, Paredes, Allen; 13.1 fwar, $86.7M (AAV) OF: Smith, Alvarez, Meyers, Loperfido, Matthews, others; 9.3 fwar, $25.2M SP: Brown, Burrows, Javier, Imai, McCullers, Weiss, others; 10.8 fwar, $56.8M RP: Hader, Abreu, Okert, King, De Los Santos, others; 3.8 fwar, $31.1M MLB Top 30 Prospects ready: 2B/OF Brice Matthews, P Ethan Pecko, P AJ Blubaugh, OF Zach Cole, P Miguel Ullola, P James Hicks, P Alimber Santa, P Jose Fleury, P Hudson Leach Projections: 40 fWAR, $205.3M payroll (26 man AAV), 83-94 wins Summary: The Astros start this season firmly in projected fringe playoff contender territory. Their roster has more upside than downside but this team desperately needs rebounds from several key players who disappointed last year (Diaz, Walker, Altuve, Correa, Alvarez, Javier). If Houston doesn't start the season 14-18 or better, my guess is they will be deadline sellers for the first time since 2014. The farm system will graduate substantial pitching depth which should keep the bullpen and back of the rotation fortified, but aside from Matthews and Cole, there's no boost to the lineup coming. The Astros' weak outfield and lack of established Tor SP behind Hunter Brown could be their undoing. Barring a very slow start, I expect Houston to buy at the deadline and sneak into the playoffs. 2027: Free Agent losses: McCullers, Okert, Abreu, De Los Santos, Vazquez, Imai (player option) MLB.com Top 30 Prospects ready: C Walker Janek, P Bryce Mayer, OF Lucas Spence, OF Joseph Sullivan, P Jackson Nezuh, P Alonzo Tredwell, C/1B Will Bush, P Parker Smith, P Ramsey David Arbitration Class: Diaz, Paredes, Pena, Meyers, Allen, Brown, Wesneski, Sousa, Pearson Projections: 39 fWAR, $207M payroll, 82-94 wins Summary: The good news is they have a relatively low impact free agent class, with Imai and Abreu being the main losses, and Abreu can likely be replaced by the farm system. The main risk here is continued decline from Walker, Correa, Alvarez, and Altuve along with a lack of elite prospects developing. There's not a ton of payroll flexibility with $95M likely committed to the 5 infielders plus $60M committed to 4 pitchers (Imai, Javier, Hader, Brown). If Cam Smith (or another young OF) doesn't develop into a star, Houston's outfield will project as an achilles. The rotation will have a lot of upside as Blanco and Wesneski return and the farm could produce several quality arms, but as things stand it is Brown and the nobody's. 2026 will dictate how accurate this 2027 projection is; if they miss the playoffs this season, I expect a partial rebuild (starting with Pena and Brown being traded). For now I expect Houston to be fringe playoff contenders but not legit WS contenders. Crane is pretty committed to winning and their options are limited with big money and no-trade clauses given to Altuve, Yordan, Correa, and Hader. 2028: Free Agent losses: Walker, Paredes, Pena, Meyers, Javier, Imai (player option), Pearson MLB.com Top 30 Prospects ready: OF Ethan Frey, P Ryan Forcucci, P Cole Hertzler, IF/OF Caden Powell, P Nick Potter, P Gabel Pentecost, maybe some future draft picks Arbitration class: Diaz, Allen, Loperfido, Brown, Burrows, Wesneski, Sousa, King Projections: 35 fWAR, $155M payroll, 78-95 wins (lower range if they don't spend, upper range if they spend to the CBT threshold) Summary: Things are already getting murky. Losing Pena leaves a gaping hole at SS. Staying optimistic, they control a big group of players who could be stars: Alvarez, Altuve, Correa, Diaz, Smith, Matthews, Brown, Arrighetti, Hader...and the farm could produce quality regulars by then in guys like Janek, Frey, future draft picks, etc. But it's also easy to see a pretty pessimistic outlook where the bulk of those players have succumbed to either age-related decline, injury, or prospect bust, leaving the roster with Hunter Brown and 4 underwater contracts surrounded by a bunch of nobodies. A rebuild in 2028 is possible, using Brown to headline a farm rebuild and just letting Altuve, Hader, Alvarez, and Correa play out their contracts and sign autographs. If they are poised to contend, they'll have ~$60M to play with if Crane is still willing to field max payrolls. There's just a ton of uncertainty once this roster loses 4 of it's current starting position players to free agency and everyone else has aged another 2 years. If things turn out rosy, it will very likely be a credit to Dana Brown's ability to draft and develop a few stars. For now I expect Houston to be fringe playoff contenders but not legit WS contenders. Crane is pretty committed to winning and their options are limited with big money and no-trade clauses given to Altuve, Yordan, Correa, and Hader. 2029: Free Agent losses: Diaz, Alvarez, Brown, Hader, Imai MLB.com Top 30 Prospects ready: OF Kevin Alvarez, IF Xavier Neyens, OF Anthony Huezo, C Jase Mitchell, future draft picks Arbitration class: Smith, Allen, Loperfido, Burrows, Arrighetti, Wesneski, Sousa, King Projections: 27 fWAR, $87M, 70-94 wins (lower range if they don't spend, upper range if they spend to the CBT threshold) Summary: Altuve, Correa, Smith will be there on offense, Arrighetti and Burrows will be on the pitching staff. Aside from that fringey core, there's pure uncertainty. A rebuild started in 2028 would set 2029 up as a trough, projecting to 70 wins and tanking; if prospects pan out such that another 3-4 guys have become legit stars, and/or Correa and Altuve have aged better than expected, they very well could still contend and 2029 could be a magical season where Crane goes all in to try to get Altuve another ring before he retires. If they do contend, they'll have a boatload of payroll freed up, somewhere in the $140M range. That's a lot of flexibility. There's really no point in guessing what Houston's situation will be because the roster will be 90% turned over by 2029. This is the point where we will have a true verdict on Dana Brown's GM tenure. 2030: Free Agent losses: Altuve, Allen, Wesneski, Sousa MLB.com Top 30 Prospects ready: IF Albert Fermin, OF Anthony Millan, future draft picks and international signings Arbitration class: Janek, Smith, Loperfido, Burrows, Arrighetti, King Projections: 29 fWAR, $69M, 72-99 wins (lower range if they don't spend, upper range if they spend to the CBT threshold) Summary: This will be an entirely new era of Astros' baseball, one almost certainly without Jose Altuve. Sure, there's a small chance Carlos Correa is still on the roster given his reduced team options, but most likely the roster will be unrecognizable. With no guaranteed contracts on the books, and an entire generation of prospects to develop, there's a path to throwing the window back open, but it's hard to bet on 15+ years of nearly unceasing contention, so my guess is by this point the team is under new ownership and a new front office and has undergone a rebuild. Who knows what the future holds.
In 5 years we'll have Bregman back on a team friendly deal. Correa will be on his last leg (or arm Bagwell style) but have enough juice to play half the season. Altuve will be doing his 3000 hit thing with a resurgent year and Springer will want one last hurrah before calling it quits. Espada will be out of baseball (or working with the Marlins which is pretty much the same thing) and Hinch will come back to manage while we bring back Luhnow as a special consultant to the General Manager. JV will come in half way through the season (Clemens style) for one more chance at a ring and to end his career with the team he'll go into the HOF with. Astros win their 3rd ring before the dynasty finally dies away. Oh and Tucker? He's playing in Mexico, living large on his yacht and out of baseball because nobody will pay his asking price of $100 million/year to play video games in the locker room.
