Chron: Who's It Gonna Be?

gucci888 · Jun 25, 2006

Who's it gonna be?
Holding this year's eighth pick, the Rockets have their eyes on a number of players. They just hope one of them is available

By JONATHAN FEIGEN
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

After all the hours of tape study that have rendered eyes puffy and bloodshot, after the workouts and interviews that have brought dozens of prospects from Tyrus Thomas to Shelden Williams to Toyota Center, after meeting upon meeting with so many more scheduled, the Rockets still are not sure.

By now, days before Wednesday's NBA draft, the Rockets usually have a pretty good idea of who's going when, at least in the top tier. This season they are juggling at least a half-dozen scenarios.

By now, they almost always can predict the No. 1 selection. But this summer, a player who might go first also might be around when the Rockets pick at No. 8.

And by now, they usually can predict whom they will choose, barring stunning selections in front of them. On Saturday, after holding their final meeting with a top player, Brandon Roy, the Rockets could only guess.

"I've been doing this a long time," said Rockets general manager Carroll Dawson, who has spent more than three decades in the NBA heading into his final draft. "It's never been like this before. Never."

The Rockets have been trying to trade up. But amid all the uncertainty, it's possible one of the presumed top picks — Andrea Bargnani, Thomas or even Roy — could slide to them at No. 8 or that the Rockets could move back and still take one of their targeted players.

The pool of players to consider ranges from Bargnani, often projected to be selected first, to the collection of rangy shooting guards/small forwards that includes Ronnie Brewer, Rodney Carney and Thabo Sefolosha. The Rockets could consider the shooting of J.J. Redick, the versatility of Randy Foye, the point-guard skills of Marcus Williams or power forward Shelden Williams. Even small forward Rudy Gay could be around at No. 8.

But options can be radically changed based on the players taken with the first seven picks.

"The guys that are picking don't know who they're picking," Dawson said. "All we can do is try to figure out who is going in the top seven and see what is left at eight. The only person in this world who could know who they're picking right now is (Toronto Raptors GM) Bryan Colangelo, and he doesn't know."

Many of the considerations, however, never change.

Fit vs. talent
The obvious question teams face is the choice between a player who fits a need and a player who doesn't but might be considered the better prospect. The Rockets have just one shooting guard under contract, Luther Head, and he is undersized for the position.

Brewer or Carney could bring size and quickness. Redick, with relatively good size if not length, offers an outstanding quick-release shot and range. But if a Gay or Bargnani fails to go in the top seven, the Rockets would face a choice not just between players but priorities.

"The ideal way is if you draft for need," Dawson said. "That doesn't always happen. If you're picking one or two or three, you can draft for need. But he's got to be there. If he's not, you can't take somebody that's inferior to other people in the draft just because you need them.

"You'd like to draft for need, but you take the best player."

With that in mind, the Rockets have had to evaluate players who might not fit their needs. Bargnani, Thomas and Shelden Williams play power forward, where the Rockets have the most players under contract (Juwan Howard, Stromile Swift and Chuck Hayes). Still, the Rockets have looked hard at each.

"Just recently we've had guys added to the pool," Rockets vice president Dennis Lindsey said. "Normally, we have a smaller pool at this stage. A lot of it is because we have uncertainty at one. The guy who could be one literally could be there at eight."

Now vs. later
With Tracy McGrady going into his 10th NBA season and Yao Ming his fifth, the Rockets could understandably consider their window of opportunity for a title relatively limited. They likely would not want a player unable to offer significant contributions before McGrady's 13th season.

"It has a lot to do with where your team is," Dawson said "Everybody forgets and looks at us as a 34-win team. When we're healthy, we don't think you are. If we were more of a real 34-win team, we would look more long-term.

"The window you're focusing on is the next four years, but anybody you draft, you want him to help you win in the next year if (you're picking in) the top 10. Maybe the guy we get in round two can help us in a year or two."

Dawson said it would be difficult to draft a long-term project unless he had far greater potential than other players available, a disparity unlikely in the top 10, especially in a draft that no longer includes high schoolers.

"If they're equal or close to equal, you want the guy who helps you win faster," Rockets assistant GM Daryl Morey said.

Staying put vs. dealing
In a draft fostering so many differing opinions, several teams could be ready to choose a player who would be available in a later slot.

Dawson said he could move back in the draft right now if he chose, but he has tried much harder to move up and said he would be willing to do so immediately, as opposed to waiting to see how the initial picks play out Wednesday.

"I've had like 20 calls to move back," Dawson said. "I made all the calls to move up. I haven't gotten any takers. It's easier to move from late teens to early teens than from where we are to the top five."

The Rockets are unlikely to move back before the first seven picks are made. But if none of the presumed top picks slide, the Rockets might have to weigh trading down.

"I wouldn't take that chance unless you had a lead-pipe cinch (the player you want) would still be there," Dawson said.

"The other factor is that there are other guys in your pool you would be willing to take if it doesn't work out," Lindsey said. "If the drop-off is so bad after your top guy, you wouldn't do it."

Risk vs. reward
Choosing eighth, the Rockets would like to limit risk. But the next Dwyane Wade or Amare Stoudemire — taken fifth in 2003 and ninth in 2002, respectively — is not likely to be sitting at No. 8 this year.

"To me, there's a spectrum," Morey said. "Even if you were in a more risk-seeking situation, you're still weighing risk versus return. I would liken it to financial markets. Even if you were looking to make it big, you wouldn't invest in Internet stocks. If all else is equal, you want less risk.

"In Boston, we were somewhat risk-seeking because we needed a guy to pair with Paul (Pierce). We didn't have two star-plus players like Yao and Tracy. Paul was a star-plus player. But still, we took less-risky bets, like Delonte West, because the risky bets were not as good reward-return. It wasn't worth the risk.

"You hope (in the top 10) to get the high-end guy and less risk."

If all that doesn't narrow it down, that's why the lights have been on in Toyota Center. But even if the Rockets are unable to say whom they will choose Wednesday, they can at least dream about whom they might.
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http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/3999563.html

alexcapone · Jun 25, 2006

lock it up

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=114233

R=$ · Jun 25, 2006

In addition in NBA Notes in the CHRON.

*Lucus III set to play on Summmer Roster.
*Hollis Price on Summer Roster.
*Portland Trade Rumor with Miles shot down by Feigan.

If I had to bet I believe we will stay in the 8th postion (Brewer)

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