I do think the Astros are married to trying to compete in ‘27 and ‘28 because of the presence of Yordan, Altuve, Correa, and Hader. But that doesn’t mean they should be buyers at this year’s deadline. Acknowledge the lost season and trade away players to rebuild the farm system. That doesn’t require anything drastic (I think it makes sense to hang on to Hunter Brown), but shopping Pena and Paredes and all the rentals is the smart thing to do. I won’t even argue against standing pat. But trading prospects for rentals this season is throwing good value into the trash can.
If Jim Crane were interviewing me to become GM tomorrow, this is the plan I would lay out for him: 2026: let the next 5 weeks play out and keep options open. Let other teams know that any of our big league players is technically available, but players with no trade clauses, Hunter Brown, and players controlled past 2028 will carry very very high prices. Let teams know that trading prospect from the lower half of the system is essentially a non-starter. Focus on gauging value of Pena, Paredes, Meyers, Lambert, and all the rentals from the sell side and focus on ToR SP, LHH OF, and setup men from the buy side. If the team is within 3 games of the division in 7/20, buy. If they’re more than 7 games out, sell. In between, follow where the value takes you even if that means playing both sides of the market. Explore extensions with Yordan Alvarez, Spencer Arrighetti, and Cam Smith. 2027-2028: try to backfill the roster (mostly with 1-2 year free agent deals) to field competitive if non-contending teams. The goal should be to be in position to make the playoffs each year while prioritizing the farm system. That will mean Crane spending money. If those teams win 85-88 games and the farm system is in the top 5 in the league, that’s success. 2029: At this point the farm should open a new window. The goal here would be for the organizational roster to be on par with what it was in 2017 in terms of projected surplus value.
This is not a realistic goal. Correa was expected to have the most surplus value in 2017 by Fangraphs. Springer, Altuve, Bregman, McCullers were also in the Top 40. Whitley, Tucker, and Alvarez were Top 50 guys in the minors at the end of 2017. 2017 was probably the peak of surplus value for the Astros as they had the core of the World Series champs for multiple seasons, and a potential World Series championship-building farm at the time.
3 years is a very long time. The Astros went from the 5th worst team in baseball to winning the World Series in 3 years. It might not be likely, but it is possible to turn over an organizational roster in that time. If Houston drafts and trades with that goal in mind (rather than focusing on 2027-2028, it increases the odds of success. But if you want to say 2015 or 2016 should be the goal instead, I’m fine with that.
I know they're grasping for straws but I'd rather have Loperfido up than Lamont Wade. Pretty dumb to bat him 5th off the bat too..he killed a ton of rallies. Everyone else did too though.
if i remember correctly, there were only 2 rallies last night. pena on 2nd, yordan on 1st and nobody out. i can't remember the inning. 3 straight Ks between Walker, Paredes, Wade Jr. they couldn't even advance the runner to 3rd. another time with allen at 2nd, pena at 1st and 1 out. yordan and cwalk did not come through. yordan, cwalk, and paredes are the guys you want in the box with men on base. just unfortunate they couldn't come through. cwalk i'll give him a pass since he's been really good this season with RiSP. just one of those game where astros couldn't string together anything. outside of these 2 instances, astros had nothing but 2 outs single or doubles. for me to believe this team is trending the right direction, i need to see them win 10 games in a row and i need to see the offense hit grand slams this season.
