I think Cam is going to be fine. I do however think he will be fine faster ( and longer as far as it pertains to the Astros) if he were sent to AAA for 4 weeks to work on his swing without the pressure to perform. Just say "just play. Focus on swing decisions and swing path and you are coming back up in 4 weeks regardless of results" like an MLB rehab.
Brown is really hard to assess because so much of the issues with the Astros were pre-existing, injuries or bad contracts that the owner largely wanted. Even with the draft, when he took the job - he was told by Crane to target higher upside prospects. The only Astros first round pick with a positive WAR in the last 11 years is Brice Matthews. Brown has picked #28, #28 and #21. I think Matthews will have some value in the big leagues. I don't think Janek will, but I never liked him as a big league prospect. Neyens went #21 and is striking out too much, but is doing everything else extremely well.
He really needs to be sent down to the minors. Hopefully now that some of these other outfielders are coming back, they can send him down soon.
As bad as he's been lately, in May, he has the second highest xwOBA on any healthy player on the team lol.
Overall his expected numbers for the season are pretty damn good, but it hasn't really translated to good results. Expected OPS is currently sitting at .812. Over the last 100 PA it's .863. I've always been a believer in him and still am, however it has been a bumpier ride than I hoped for. We have enough data on the season and he's still sitting at a 98th % bat speed, and 96th % sprint speed, which is a wild combination. He's also making an extremely strong case for a gold glove.
I think he seems to have the stuff to be a cornerstone. Changing positions from 3rd base to RF and then leapfrogging the minor leagues as soon as he got to Houston; well some adjustments would be expected. I’m glad the Astros have been patient with him, that should help his confidence. His stellar defensive prowess has made his early season offensive woes more bearable. And having a good showing for his last 100 AB is a huge deal.
I fully expect him to be a very functional player, it will take some time. Can we stop him from challenging pitches, though?
I just saw today that Cam Smith is sporting a 1.3 WAR on Baseball-Reference website. That is tied for 3rd for the position players on the Astros. Alvarez, Walker, and then Cam Smith (tied with Carlos Correa), with Paredes coming in 4th. Vazquez and Pena come in tied for 5th with a .9 WAR. It doesn’t feel like Cam has been all that good, but I guess his defense being near gold glove, helps catapult his bat into some very respectable numbers.
