I think you can take all the talk Dana brown makes and shove it. I think you can look at history and make a prediction. If the astros are close near the trade deadline , or really at any point ... They will trade for pitching . And Dana brown has said one true thing in all his years as the GM here , he loves the fastball . Movement , location , along with velocity are all factors. Dana said , yusei had one of the top fastballs in baseball When we traded for him in 2024 he had (with some rounding ) Top 25 percent fastball velo And top 10 percent extension . Generally he gets his pitching value on off speed pitches , but of course you can enable your breaking ball with the fastball . Anyways . I think we will always move on pitching we like. Frankly , if we are losing then we might make an even bigger move (in an exchange). We brought in a lot of new pitchers this off-season. Idk what the average team changeover rate on pitching looks like , I imagine it also can be dictated by rebuilding/contending direction . Regardless. I very much like the stuff of the guys we brought on , not all of them have found their stride , some may not . But framber is gone , brown is down and Ive got doubts about him long term. You need to bring in top pitching talent . This will have to be a case like kikuchi or burrows where you are buying on stuff and hoping you can improve the outcome over the long term. I think it will be a quiet deadline if we are buyers . We don't have the capital to make a big splash Best we can do is trade from our OF and a AAAA pitcher like blubaugh to upgrade the pen. If we are sellers it could be huge with brown and hader(who won't have tons of value unless it's part of a package or we cover cost) and abreu . Pena I think would be an off-season trade . Cristian vasquez and Christian Walker are having great seasons . Paredes has more value to us generally because of park factor and , he looks average at best on defense now . I'm so ready to move on from diaz . But think his value is minimal I don't know enough baseball around the league to know who we could target / covet. You figure pitchers nearing FA on teams like Miami and KC will be up for grabs . Nl central is bunched up . Stl and pit have some pitching talent im interested in . Our best package assuming we aren't moving walker is made up of Meyers /blubaugh / another young outfielder among Zach c and D / brice / cam . With Brice and cam and cole probably worth a chunk more than dezenzo . Then you have the whole lockout question coming up . Long post , but I think we will be conservative, partially driven by the market. If we are not good and there are less sellers in the market we could really set ourselves up well for the next couple of years with the right moves . I think walker is the biggest wildcard . He'd be a significant upgrade for SDP , MIL , CLE , TBR , CHC , and if it came to it SEA . With his track record , you think he's still going to be good next year . He's still a stud defender 1b. But , we won't move walker unless we are significantly out of it and not thinking of contending in 27.
Current top 5 LHH OF targets: Wilyer Abreu BOS Trevor Larnach MIN Pavin Smith ARI JJ Bleday CIN Troy Johnston COL So far it’s shaping up to be slim pickings.
Astros get: OF Zyhir Hope SS Emil Morales OF Charles Davalan 2B/OF Kellon Lindsey P Cam Leiter Dodgers get: SS Jeremy Pena SP Peter Lambert Astros get: SS Adrian Santana 1B/OF Taitn Gray SS Cooper Flemming Rays get: CF Jake Meyers RP Bryan Abreu 2 trades to dramatically improve Houston’s farm system. Houston then trades Smith, Pecko, Ullola, and Mayer to Boston for Wilyer Abreu and Garrett Whitlock to keep their current roster competitive.
Too many pitchers going out and not enough pitchers coming back. Need way more than 2 pitchers (and we are giving up 5), unless this next draft class is pretty much all pitchers.
Ullola and Mayer are not going to factor into this season. Between the draft, the arms they already have, and their ability to go out and get Lambert/Teng types, they don’t have an issue. They lack top tier position player talent and the priority needs to be building a wave of talent to open a new window starting ~2028.
Snake- this is the bizarro **** you like: Imagine a world where Houston is at 500 and tied for 1st in the West at the break. Detroit is eleventy billion games below and out of the race like they are now. How much would Houston ask for from Detroit in order to trade Skubal for Hunter Brown (assume healthy Hunter Brown). Is there any way it makes sense for both clubs?
I personally don’t think Skubal is that much better than Brown to warrant that trade at all. But if I did do a trade like that I would say: Astros get: SP Tarik Skubal SS Bryce Rainer SS Jordan Yost Tigers get: SP Hunter Brown Part of that is that trading Skubal takes the QO off of him so nobody is getting a draft pick for him. I think that’s a bad deal for both sides but I wouldn’t really complain about it as an Astros fan.
Hadn’t thought about the QO aspect but I assign WAY less value to that than most. Detroit has to move him if they don’t get back in the race. I’d probably rather buy HB if I were them than prospects. Their window should be open for the next couple years.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/05/craig-breslow-discusses-trade-deadline.html Astros get: OF Justin Gonzales P Marcus Phillips IF Caleb Durbin P Hayden Mullins Red Sox get: 3B Isaac Paredes Gonzales would be Houston’s 3rd best prospect. Durbin is a high contact super utility player with a 2 win season on his resume. He lacks bat speed but even factoring that in he’s had bad batted ball luck this season. He can mix and match with Shewmake and Allen to fill in at 3B while Correa is out. Phillips probably becomes Houston’s best pitching prospect and Mullins is a solid upper level pitching prospect. Boston gets a guy built for the Monster. I doubt Boston would do this deal but if they want to get in front of the market and make an impact trade this early this is a deal I’d offer them. Dramatically improves Houston’s farm and with the way Paredes is hitting it’s not a huge downgrade to the big league lineup. It also frees up some money that can be reallocated at the deadline.
