[War] Trump surrenders to Iran in a humiliating defeat

They have concepts of a ceasefire.

 

Yeah, the Netaynhu version. Just keep firing away and call it self-defense.

The war in Gaza never really ended and the wars in Lebanon will continue, as he he's bombs away like in Gaza killing 8 civilians for every target, displacing millions, and leaving piles or rubble.

 

well, ease fire is close the cease fire

 

Guys, honest question to both sides, do you guys feel Trump had any choice about going to war in Iran? Would a different president decide not to go to war

last year during the 12 day bombardments, it was isreal initially, but did little to no damage to the unground facilities, so america stepped in.

Right now, if Trump was not the president, do you think isreal have enough leverage over america to 'force' an american war on Iran? Not sure what leverage AIPAC have over different candidates but damn its strong through for both sides.

Isreal's presence, influence and control over america both politically and culturally has been increasing, infact over the world for that matter. would a different president have a different outcome?

Honest question here, not to defend trump or knock on him, just curious on american's views regarding AIPAC's influence on american foreign affairs.

 

**** Greenwald. Not an ally.

 

You don’t think his decision is influenced by aipac and bibi?

would another president withstand the Jewish pressure?

 

Bibi has been pitching a Bomb Iran campaign to US Presidents for his entire political career. Only one POTUS bit.

 

3 months of saying we are very close to making a deal...

 

I think any other president would not have started this war. Sure, Israel has some influence on our Middle East policy, but I think Trump had some personal reasons to elect this war. And other people conceivably in that seat would not have the personality disorders that drove Trump to make this big bet.

First, way back when the JCPOA was negotiated, he criticized it to boost his own political position in opposition to whatever Obama did, and then he tore up the agreement, not because it was a bad deal but just to repudiate Obama and undermine his legacy. Then after clawing his way back into office in the aftermath of a stymied and ineffective first term, he decided he needed to leave an indelible mark on this country. He's a huge narcissist who is also facing end of life and thinking about his legacy. How do you leave a legacy that is irreversible by future presidents -- move fast and break things. He did it in Venezuela and in his mind it was a great success. He tore down the East Wing and now we have no choice but to build something in the hole. If he could capture that magic in Iran with one last big bet he thought he would come to be regarded as one of the greats.

 

reminiscent of Trump 1.0 claiming that Mexico will pay for the border wall !

 

[The Atlantic] Why Trump Keeps Getting Rolled in Negotiations

The president will try to spin any Iran deal he makes, but he’s ill-equipped to gain real concessions.
By David A. Graham

Donald Trump’s reputation and political career were built on his dealmaking prowess, yet the president keeps demonstrating that he is a terrible negotiator.

Repeatedly over the past nine years, Trump has gotten rolled by counterparts during high-stakes exchanges. North Korea, Russia, Russia again, China, and China again have gotten the better of the United States. Trump has had to slink back to Washington without much to show except empty talk about friendship with whatever dictator has just run circles around him. He’s had some success in brokering agreements when acting as a third party (though not nearly as much as he pretends) but much less luck when his own government is a participant. The one glaring exception came when he was effectively negotiating with himself, getting his own administration to set up a $1.8 billion slush fund for his political allies.

The newest example of Trump’s artlessness is Iran. Let’s review the past few days: Trump posted on Saturday that he was close to striking a deal with Tehran that would end the war he started earlier this year and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As the outlines of the agreement began to emerge, it looked both incomplete and bad: Trump had postponed discussing the hardest issues—matters, such as nuclear weapons, that led him to go to war—in exchange for opening the strait, which was open before Trump started the war. Hawkish Trump allies promptly criticized the deal, and despite histrionic pushback from Trump aides, the president had begun backing off claims of an imminent agreement by Sunday. “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama,” he posted. “Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet.” Yesterday, in a sign that a deal might not be near at all, the U.S. military conducted what it called “self-defense strikes” against Iranian targets—directly contradicting the administration’s previous claims about having wiped out any threats to the United States in Iran.

The situation demonstrates a few reasons that Trump is such a bad negotiator. My colleagues Tom Nichols and Robert Kagan have all written illuminating articles on the specific failures inherent or likely in any deal with Iran. But the incident also shows the structural problems with the president’s approach.

First, Trump is unprepared. Some effective presidents (Dwight Eisenhower, George H. W. Bush) came to the White House with a history of deep engagement in public affairs and foreign relations, which made them ready to handle sensitive foreign negotiations. Others brought a formidable work ethic and a ruthless intellect (Barack Obama, Bill Clinton). Both types surround themselves with smart advisers whose input they take seriously. Trump is 0 for 3 on these conditions, which is one reason he wrote off the risk of Iran closing the strait in the first place: He both surrounds himself with less qualified aides than past presidents did and refuses to heed their counsel. The same failure of preparation extends to the frontline negotiators. Even after many of its top officials were killed in the war, Iran has maintained a hard-nosed corps of diplomats who have long been involved in foreign policy. Trump, by contrast, has dispatched a real-estate pal and his nepo-baby son-in-law. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, perhaps the best informed of Trump’s aides, has been largely invisible.

Second, as the roller-coaster weekend demonstrates, Trump is mercurial. Keeping one’s bottom line ambiguous in a negotiation is canny, but Trump doesn’t appear to have any bottom line in his own mind. He has cycled through different rationales for the war, including regime change and stopping Iran’s nuclear program, but hasn’t landed on one. Lacking a goal in the war means he also lacks a goal in the peace talks. Iran may be able to use that to its advantage, but even if its leaders are eager to make a deal, they will be understandably reluctant to agree to anything that requires a leap of faith, because Trump may change his mind at any moment, as appeared to happen amid Republican backlash in recent days.

Third, Trump is desperate for a deal, and everyone knows it. His misjudgments have led him to corporate bankruptcies and cheap sales in business, and he’s in a similar situation now. Every conflict between an autocracy and a democracy (however fragile this one may be) is asymmetric: Trump has to be concerned about public opinion, whereas Iran’s leaders have shown not only that they are indifferent to the suffering of their people; they are willing to massacre them by the thousands. But as the war drags on with no positive resolution in sight, and the U.S. economy looks shakier, Trump has become visibly more frantic to reach a peace agreement. (The president also seemed eager to have something to show for his weekend, because he skipped his eldest son’s wedding, ostensibly to work.) Iran, sensing Trump’s need for a deal, has maintained a hard line.

All of these factors combine to mean that Trump is ill-equipped to win any negotiation, much less one that is the result of his own blundering into war. Trump is likely to muddle through, as he has so many times in his career, and reach some sort of agreement with Iran. He will surely say that it’s a great triumph, but reality will be harder to ignore than it was when Trump’s failures merely hurt his own bank accounts.

One of the ironies of The Art of the Deal, the book that made Trump’s reputation as a clever businessman, is that Trump himself didn’t write it. His ghostwriter, Tony Schwartz, has said that he cobbled the volume together after sitting at Trump’s elbow while he conducted his daily business. Unfortunately, it’s probably too late for Trump to hire a real professional to handle negotiations with Iran.


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Rocket River

 

Don’t forget, Congress could stop this tomorrow. It’s entirely on the party that controls the government, not just the President.

 

If there were just 5 members of the republican party that had a set of balls they would stop it.

 

They care more about having access to insider trading than they do helping the American people.

 

I'm so sick of Trump and his warmongering. Any excuse to avoid working on an affordable healthcare plan.