To me, I just would not want the Astros to make a stupid trade. That said, being hopeless beyond doubt (i.e., 10-37) likely is worse than a Kevin Alvarez for a Sandy Alcantara rental.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...ros-future-paths-trade-rebuild-yordan-alvarez Interesting read on the path forward for the Astros. There are good arguments for/against all 3 options. Stand pat like the late 00s Phillies, soft rebuild like the Cubs a few years ago, or total rebuild like 2010.
The article makes a very good point about Crane's age. He probably will not stomach a full rebuild and in fact is probably pretty dead set on trying to win before he retires/dies and/or sells the team. That factor combined with the no-trade clauses and low trade value of their most prominent players (outside of Yordan) makes me believe there is almost zero chance of a "full" rebuild. That means Altuve, Alvarez, and Correa aren't going anywhere. I also have a hard time seeing Houston as strong buyers. They are sitting with a 7% chance of making the playoffs. They have a maxed out payroll and a terrible farm system. Crane would have to make a monumentally stupid decision to force Dana Brown to compete against the myriad buyers with better farms and more money. It would put Houston in a similar hole to what Drayton McLane put the Astros in the the aughts. I just don't see it. So that leaves a soft rebuild. There's a pretty wide range of what that could entail, but to me the most likely option is that the Astros trade Pena, Meyers, and their rentals for MLB-ready prospects and then prepare to rebuild the roster via free agency this offseason in anticipation of competing in 2027-2028 while the Astros still have Correa and Alvarez (and while Altuve is presumably still a viable player). For me that means taking Hunter Brown and Josh Hader off the table. It also means trading Walker is very questionable because they’d just have to replace him in the offseason. Pena, Meyers, and the rentals can probably bring back about 1/3 of a decent farm system's top 20 prospects; Pena should fetch 2 Top 75 MLB prospects, while Meyers and guys like Okert, Abreu, De Los Santos, and potentially Lambert should each bring back an interesting prospect that will slot in the org's 11-30 range. That along with the draft will boost Houston's farm into above-average territory. Building a contender from what's left would be a daunting task. The Astros would enter the offseason with questions at C, RF, CF, LF, SP, and RP, and aging but established players at 2B and SS. They'd have about $30M to spend. To me the only way it works is if Crane green lights a splurge well above the CBT and the Astros get a ton of luck. But it still probably represents the best path forward.
The Orioles also are sorta in the same rebuild or no-rebuild sitch. The Orioles hired their GM, Mike Elias, out of Luhnow's FO. The Orioles were tanking at the time. Elias had many high draft picks and drafted well, giving the Orioles a top farm team, before all of the promotions. The Orioles struggled to meet expectations after those promotions. And like the Astros the Orioles have had putrid starts to the 2025 and 2026 seasons. Much of the blame is on injuries, again like the Astros. The Orioles fan base are starting to call for Mike Elias's head. There are some obvious differences between the Astros and the Orioles. The Astros peaked for higher and longer than the Orioles. The Astros also were able to develop pitching prospects better than most, including the Orioles.
FWIW, Crane is 72 year old billionaire with access to the best healthcare money can buy and with no known history of health issues. He probably has a life expectancy well into his 80's or beyond. I'm not sure age is factoring into his decision making much at this point. That said, I think all the winning does and I doubt he's interested in a rebuild just after getting used to having lots of success. It's different when you just buy a team and can blame all the losing on a previous owner.
Agreed. They also have the surrounding MMP/Daikan area project development commencing (hotel, entertainment venue) and they need attendance/winning to make that project viable. They don’t need 17 MBA’s to put together a presentation to project what Houston does when a team tanks… they can just look at the attendance numbers from 12 years ago (Houston doesn’t get angry/spietful/emotional, they just go apathetic and will come back when the team is ready to win). I believe the Correa re-acquisition was as much for trying to boost some dormant sales as it was trying to improve the on-field product. They need faces. They also need newer homegrown faces as Houston won’t just latch on to any trade product (unless you have a JV-like run with them). They do still play in the shittiest of divisions and they’d probably still be in good shape if the injuries weren’t even worse this year (minus having to get some more bullpen help).
Hader and Hunter's injury can be directly contributed to overuse which is on Espada. If we had them both, we would be close to 500 right now.
You can make a strong case that the Astros are already in a soft rebuild. Really surprised that the Orioles are struggling with the amount of top 100 prospects on their team. I thought they we’re about to enter their own golden era with multiple championships
No they can't. I mean, it's a nice theory, but no one has any idea if Hunter throwing 90 pitches instead of 100 would have changed anything. He pitched a 2nd start with no problems and could have very well hurt it there or in a bullpen session. As the GM pointed out, Brown was throwing full power all throughout the spring which isn't normal either - that could have been the cause as well. But it also meant he went into the season with his arm built up more than other pitchers usually do. Lots of Astros have gotten injured the last two years without being overused. No one knows if Hader or Brown were hurt because of how they were used or because they threw one pitch that screwed something up.
The Orioles and Tigers are examples of why spending several years losing isn't necessarily a great idea. You take away all the joy and interest from fans for several years and often get nothing out of it.
If Arrighetti keeping pitching like a #2 starter, and Brown comes back and pitches like a #1…. With the Mariners being mediocre, we could see the Astros make a push towards .500 and “in it” for awhile. One of Tatsuya and Burrows improving is also possible… Hader last I checked was doing well in rehab…. Could convince Crane they can get into the playoffs and surprise with health. I personally don’t see it, but who knows…. Brown is old school, he is going to put his head down, do as his owner says and keep his opinion to himself on a rebuild.
Good point. In hindsight once Houston lost Bregman and decided to trade Tucker they probably should have done more to rebuild their farm system and look toward the future. Trading Framber, Pena, and Abreu along with Tucker probabiy would have given them a top 10 farm system. They should not have rushed Cam Smith. They should not have dropped $60M on Walker. They could have used 2025 to reload then come into last offseason with a really good farm system and a lot of payroll flexibility. It’s also a good point about the Orioles, which is a good example of the fact that there is a ton of luck involved in capitalizing on a rebuild. There’s absolutely no guarantee that tanking for 3-4 years is going to result in championships.
I always said we got lucky even with number 1 picks. Correa, Bregman, McCullers, and Springer not only worked but were all-stars. We got lucky with Altuve and Yuli being a stud at first base wasn't a given. Lots of things went right above expectations. Tucker working out also wasn't a given. Let's not even talk about Alvarez. Granted Luhnow increased our odds but we were lucky.
The Luhnow Astros were also somewhat lucky in reverse in that their mega-trades (JV, Greinke) didn't really jump-start anybody else's rebuild either. There is no perfect rebuild formula that doesn't involve luck (whether health = luck can be debated, but health is everything).
If healthy the pitching will be fine. Maybe add one more arm. I'm happy with Diaz/Vazquez. So that leaves the OF. They need to trade for an OF bat and they have to hope Cam comes around.
I have this feeling that the Astros wouldn't even entertain a full rebuild until Correa and Yordan are off the books. Correa has club options starting in 2029 which I strongly feel won't be picked up and Yordan is a FA in 2029. Neither will most likely be traded and if Yordan leaves for a bigger contract than what the Astros are willing to give in 2 years then the rebuild begins. I do see Pena being moved by next year and maybe Hunter in 2028 as they won't want to leave his prize on the table nor pay him during a rebuild. There's no coincidence that only Altuve is on the books in 2029 or beyond (not counting vesting or club options). The dead money guys of LMJ and Javier will be off after the 2027 season meaning they could go for it in 2028 with some 1 year contract prove-it guys for a last hurrah. If it pans out then great but if not they may have a fire sale Summer 2028 to get what they can. This would be the only way I see Yordan getting traded before being a FA. So 2026/27 - suck, 2028 - soft push to go for it with outs. 2029-2032 - full rebuild
Pitching staff coming together. 1. Brown 2. Arrighetti 3. Teng 4. Lambert We need one of several to be around .500 at the 5th spot and we could make a run. DD
