These examples aren't actually true. Hunter came up late and excelled out of the pen his first year. Then, a down season as a starter. Then, a superstar. Framber similarly, was excellent in his limited call up year, then bad his first full season, and then consistently excellent. These were their age 23/24 seasons. Spaghetti has had two bad seasons and may or may not have found something this year. Walk rate is still awful and I suspect there will be real regression in the ERA. I'm hoping for the best, but it's hard to count on him being an example of wait two years for guys to figure it out. The beauty of the previous Astros pitching staff in their heyday was there was not really the learning curve. LMJ, Luis Garcia, Urquidy, Javier, those guys came up and were mostly fully formed as pitchers. They were productive from jump. I don't know if it's a unique set of pitchers, or the minor league development, or the pitching coaches, but we used to be able to bring them up and get production right away.
That is good, Astros really need some sign of hope. Houston’s crew of young position players are getting up to some meaningful thresholds for plate appearances and the results are very discouraging. Cam Smith is at 182 pa this season with a 75 wRC+ and 675 pa for his career and is at 90 wRC+. He is still young so there is hope he can develop but at almost 700 MLB pa he might just be a really good defensive OF with a well below average bat. That is a terrible outcome considering what his ceiling was when Houston traded for him. The aircraft carrier might just be a skiff. Brice Matthews is at 174 big league pa with a 76 wRC+. That’s not a definitive sample but it’s big enough to draw the conclusion that he is extremely likely to always strike out a lot. He might just be a boom or bust bench player. Zach Dezenzo has accumulated 208 MLB pa, and he’s looking like he might just be a league average corner bench bat. Zach Cole needs a bigger sample. At this point he and Loperfido might be the two young OF who have the best chance of being quality everyday players.
I wish Cam could get some developmental time at AAA, but not a lot of evidence our AAA crew would help him much He does have one of the biggest gaps between his Avg and his expected Avg in MLB, so some positive regression should be coming
Red Sox top prospect is a SS who should be ready soon I went through both leagues and very few contenders have a need there. Milwaukee could use an upgrade, but they ain’t paying for a guy for this year and next with Made sitting in their system. Same with Boston with Arias The best fit is actually the Dodgers with the ability to move Betts around some, and their system is loaded with OF
If Crane is going to replace Dana Brown, I'd pick Matt Kleine from the Brewers. He actually interned for the Astros in 2007. Does player valuation (but also has advanced scouting experience) which I think is the background Houston needs.
I had to go to the stats to see if some command disaster befell him, but it was just one bad outing. He hasn't had issues with walks overall.
There’s 47 games left before the all star break. Houston probably needs to go 27-20 at worst (putting them at 47-51 overall) to be in striking distance of the division lead and warrant holding off on selling and potentially even buying. They’ve gotten a lot of help from other teams in the AL being terrible. A 6+ game winning streak probabiy rights the ship. It’s damn sad that a streak like that is so statistically unlikely.
It’s not one size fits all. It’s a league of adjustments as well. Imai has stuff. Imai has control/command issues. Imai’s stuff (if commanded correctly) is good enough to get MLB hitters out. No pitcher excels without command. If arms/shoulders/elbows are sound/intact… would be silly for the Astros to sell low on pitchers with stuff.
27-20 seems like a daunting task for this squad, I don't see it but I would be stoked if they could do it. This feels like a throw away season at best and a train wreck at worst. For the second year in a row, we are the most injured team in MLB (based on WAR) and the Orioles for the second straight year are number 2..........WHY!! While I can't blame Joe for everything, him using Hunter for 100 pitches in game one shows me he has no clue on how to deal with his pitching staff, that is 100% on him
Yes I agree. And honestly I'd rather them go 10-37 than 25-22. The worst outcome would be they give enough hope for Crane to demand they buy at the deadline without having a real statistical likelihood of making the playoffs. Barring a massive 2nd half breakout from Burrows, Arrighetti, Smith, and at least one other young OF, this franchise is very very likely not going to compete until at least 2029. They need to trade Brown, Pena, Paredes, Lambert, Meyers, all their rental players, and Walker if they can find a taker.
Here's the thing: a 15-win difference over a 47-game period gives the impression that the MLB players are much more valuable. Going 10-37 may keep Crane from buying, but it also dramatically reduces his ability to sell.
Yes this most likely would be true. I guess I should have clarified that I’d rather them go 10-37 than 25-22, so long as either way their tradable assets perform well. The guys I listed as trade candidates could all perform really well and Houston could still lose a bunch of games.
10-37 is well below replacement level. The Astros are 20-32 now. To have performed at a 10-37 pace for the start of the season, the Astros would be 12-40. That's enough WAR lost that callups would have had to likely play at a negative WAR value if all of Alvarez, Walker, Brown, Pena, Paredes, Smith, Lambert, Arrighetti, King, and Okert had all been injured the entire season to date. I just can't see how many if any trade candidates can produce well while going 10-37.
I don't think it's anywhere near outside the realm of possibility that their callups and other non-tradable assets could perform at negative war over the next ~40 games. I also think it's possible the team's w/l record could underperform their WAR over that span. Like I said, you are right in that if Houston goes 10-37 over that stretch that is is very likely that at least some of their tradable assets will see their value decline. But really as long as Brown, Pena, and Paredes perform well the rest don't have much trade value to begin with.
Yes, it is in the realm of possibility that callups would produce enough negative WAR for that record with all those guys being out. It is possible that the team could underperform this WAR over that span. I'd say this second option would be a larger factor in wins. That said, the likelihood that Brown, Pena, and Paredes are performing well, while some form of callups producing large amounts of negative WAR and underperformance with the Astros going 10-37 is very, very low. Also, I would not rule out other guys as not having much value. Give me a 25-22 record any day as callups and underperformance likely taps out at about - 8 wins or so. The 7 extra WAR over 47 games looks like about 21 extra WAR for a season.
I just feel like 25-22 would make Crane think they have a shot and compel Dana Brown to do something stupid like trade Kevin Alvarez for a Sandy Alcantara rental. I either want them coming into mid July really hot and with a clear path the make the playoffs (and with everyone on the roster except Correa healthy) or I want it to be hopeless beyond doubt.
