It depends on how you define “contender”. The roster I outlined above (with Houston backfilling their roster with 2-3 good free agents) is unlikely to be a WS contender, but I would peg them for 82-88 wins and better than 50/50 to make the playoffs. Against the backdrop of having a stacked farm system I think it’s a good place to be. Houston is pretty confined by the fact that they have 4 expensive aging players on big contracts all with no-trade clauses. That makes it really difficult to justify tanking. Serving 2 masters of trying to compete while rebuilding is almost never a good idea, but I think in this particular situation it makes sense. If Houston trades Walker just to shed his contract, how will they fill 1B next season? If it’s by going out and signing another FA (like Josh Bell) to a similar contract, I don’t think that juice is worth the squeeze. Like I said, if Houston is willing to pay down his contract, and Walker wants out, and another team offers legit prospects for him, I’m all for it. I just don’t see that happening.
The rotation you've laid out is not going to get close to .500. Spaghetti has an xERA close to 5. He's going to come crashing down sooner or later, I fear. King is a mid-3s ERA guy, so fine, but not an ace. Burrows, Teng, Imai? There's also still no length out of that rotation so we run into the same issues we've got currently with burning the bullpen out. The lineup is also still shallow. It's basically this year, without Hunter or Lambert in the rotation and without Pena and Paredes in the lineup. I'm not advocating for dumping salary just to do it, but there are many 2027 free agents who might still be good in 2028 and beyond. Bohm, Mountcastle are options at 1B. Or maybe you address holes you've got at SS, or the OF, or SP, or RP, and give Dezenzo a shot at 1B.
A couple of things. 1) Arrighetti is one of those pitchers who's expected numbers are always going yo be worse than his real ones. Its just a fact and its because he doesn't have a big fastball. Its a limitation of the current metrics and expectations they use. Its very similar to hitters like Altuve and Paredes not having a bunch if red on Savant, but being good in real life. 2) You make a great point about length. Sometimes a bunch of 3.50 ERA starters who go 6 innings are better than a bunch of 2.50 ERA starters who only go 4. I don't trade Brown unless the team is actively trying to not win unyil hevis a FA and that goes for any TOR who can average 6 IP/GS at a good level of performance. Blanco, Wesneski, Burrows, etc are great to round out a rotation but you gotta have a horse. But FTR I think the rotation mentioned is better than .500. Probably an 85 win rotation in my mind.
Bohm and Mountcastle are very likely to be worse than Walker. There’s a lot of season left to get a better feel for how Imai, Burrows, Arrighetti, Teng, and Pecko will project next season. All of them could change dramatically. I don’t want the Astros to have Blanco, Wesneski, or Walter higher than 7th or 8th on their SP depth chart going into next spring. I really don’t think we actually have that big of a difference of opinion. I am all in favor of trading Walker if they can get value back, I just don’t think an acceptable offer will be there.
You trust that lineup with Altuve slumping, Smith sucking, Correa getting hurt again and AAAA players like Matthews/Cole/Diaz/Shewmake? Plus trusting 3 guys coming off of TJ or serious shoulder injuries is a receipe for disaster IMHO.
The real problems are, the OF sucks and Brown refuses to send Smith down. The rest of the OF is young and has potential, but are just as likely to be avg to below avg players as they are to be above avg MLB players. Pena and Correa are injury prone, which is why I wouldn't be opposed to trading Pena. Altuve is rapidly declining and is becoming more injury prone, which is to be expected. The pitching staff that has carried this team for many yrs is now injured mostly because of Espada's poor usage. Speaking of Espada that's another big issue and Dana should be fired for hiring Espada as manager if Crane didn't make that call. The minors after 3 yrs of Dana hs 3 possible top 100 guys and only 1 star level player IMHO. (Alvarez) To fix this there needs to be different leadership at the top that will make the hard decisions on the training staff, how much Altuve plays/should they trade Pena etc... If it was me I would try to trade for a hugh end young controllable starter and a young W. Abreu type OF. If I had to let go of a few guys in the lineup like Pena/Walker/Cam/Diaz to make this happen I would do this in a heartbeat. If at the deadline a team came calling for Lambert/King it would cost them a promising young OF.
And when Correa gets hurt again Parades plays 3B and Dezenzo plays 1B. Gotta make a couple of trades to add a high end young controllable SP and an OF.
The Astros have the assets to make this trade happen? Dana Brown did trade for Burrows last offseason. This is the type of pitcher other teams make available.
Trade Pena to a team that needs a SS for a good young SP. Add some sweetner to the trade like Burrows or Lam Put Cam in a deal with Parades Sure they do, Pena/Cam for a top pitching prospect seems like a deal that could get done. Parades/King could probably get you another top pitching prospect or 2.
The team is already awful at developing offense so then you'll have a team full of likely-injured pitchers and no offense at all. But in terms of the first example, Burrows is the type of guy it sounds like you're trading for. Outside of elite superstars, most pitchers take time to become good. Hunter Brown sucked his first year. Framber sucked for a couple of years, if I remember right. As did Arrighetti. If you give up on pitchers after their first couple of months or even years, you'll just be constantly buying high / selling low.
I understand this, if I'm making the trades I'm suggesting I'm getting elite young pitching prospects back even if it takes a yr or two for them to develop. Elite pitching has always been at the heart of the Stros success.
I agree that elite pitching has been the heart of the Astros' success, but I don't think any of their guys were elite pitching *prospects*. The Astros' genius was in developing those guys rather than getting superstar prospects. The two they tried (Aiken, Appel) were disasters.
Problem with a Pena trade is almost every contender either has a good SS or a top SS prospect who is banging on the door. It would be tough to get a couple of teams bidding up Pena, even as good as he can be and with his playoff pedigree
I'm with ya on Santa Pecko is walking everything he sees right now, so yes, he would fit in, but maybe let's get him to throw some strikes in the minors first
