Long Story Short: Rockets will not have cap space soon. Any added vets / MLE-type salaries that remain on the books in 2028-29 and 2029-30 probably need to fit under roughly $29–30 million in combined salary, assuming the Rockets want to stay around the 1st apron for flexibility. Revised projection below, taking this article into account for Amen and Tari. I added: SRP 39 on a 4-year minimum-style second-round deal beginning 2026-27. 2027 Nets pick estimated #3 2027 Phoenix pick estimated #10 2028 draft pick #22 on a 4-year rookie-scale deal beginning 2028-29. 2029 Phoenix pick estimated #10 2029 Dallas pick estimated #18 Minimum placeholders as needed so each year stays at 14 roster spots. Reed 17% salary cap extension Reference: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/houston-rockets/yearly for existing contracts.
Fred VanVleet has a $25 million player option for next season. The Athletic reported that the 32-year-old could decline it and “negotiate a new deal with Houston to provide some short-term cap flexibility in exchange for a few additional years of security.” To do so, VanVleet would probably need an offer with a total value somewhere around $50 million over three years, with the last perhaps a player option. holy sh*t, this love affair with FVV has got to stop…he is one of the worst starting PG’s in the NBA and has always been unreliable health-wise Do not expect Amen Thompson to get a max contract extension. Such a contract would pay him a quarter of the salary cap over the next few seasons, but the impressive guard/forward still faces enough questions about his shot and eventual offensive profile. That, combined with the Rocket' precedent of getting relatively team-friendly extensions (see Şengün, Alperen, above) should keep him in the ballpark of 20-23% of the salary cap. Amen on a max extension is franchise ruining, and not even Stone could be that dumb
I would not extend FVV and did not include that part as I don't expect it. I'd bite the bullet and let his contract play out next year and save that space for the younger guys as they get extended. That said, the team needs a guard that can shoot threes, play defense, organize an offense, and be a steady ballhandler.
Right now, bringing everyone back this way would mean we pay a big luxury tax bill for a team that has close to zero chance of winning a playoff series. That simply isn't going to happen. Not because Tilman is particularly cheap. Almost no owner/GM would walk into a season knowing they are ~6th at best in their conference while paying the tax. So the "base case" scenario is not really useful to think about. There will be huge changes to the cap sheet one way or another -- either pushing chips in and re-centering the cap sheet around a supermax star and paying a tax bill, or taking a strategic step back and getting a lot cheaper next season as part of that.
Appreciate the thought and work that went into this OP. My thoughts: Amen is probably my favorite player on the team - and I wouldn't come anywhere near that deal for him. He hurts our offense nearly as much as he helps our defense. He's difficult to build around because you essentially have to find a center who can space the floor in order to make an offense work. You just can't spend that much on a guy who can't shoot in the modern NBA. I really don't think he should get much more than Jabari did, and I don't think Tari should get as much as Jabari did. I'd try to sign and trade Tari with somebody before I'd pay him a deal that starts at 20 million a year. He's just too often injured and then, when he was healthy, he had that prolonged slump. I can't do it.
Good post. How does Dorian's contract go away? Edit: Team option before his player option? Edit Edit: Never mind, I am a casual lol
Awesome job @Joe Joe - very easy to follow! Reed's salary is a little rich for my liking but let's hope he shows out next year and earns it FVV has the $25M in hand already, so you are effectively adding two years at $12.5M/year (basically the MLE). The cap gymnastics are also helpful in getting avoiding onerous tax restrictions in future years. If FVV is at $16M this year, you'd be able to use the taxpayer MLE, keep Tari (under $20M/yr), and stay under the first apron this year.
For general knowledge to anyone that wants this info, he's non-guaranteed after 2 years. There are some options after 2 years, but ultimately, the Rockets can cut him next offseason if they want, without having to pay it, regardless of whether options are picked up or not.
Amen is much better than JSJ. I'm using the Chronicle's number, but generally think it is in the ballpark of what Amen is worth. The problem is that to be a contender, you need guys worth a lot more than they are paid (i.e., surplus contracts) because the FO is either savvy, max contract supresses player contract, or player is on a rookie or rookie extension contract. Non-max extensions just don't typically provide much surplus value except when a team plays hardball in RFA. Stone was tough on Sengun. I thought JSJ got a deal as if he was an UFA instead of headed to RFA. Tari even with his slump still has a better career 3 PT% than JSJ despite JSJ slightly passing him this year. On average, JSJ was better when he played than Tari was last year. That said, I think the difference is minor in play per minute. JSJ will make more mostly because he's healthier and younger. I would have guessed in the $15-$20M range for Tari (using Chronicle's number of AAV $22M). I don't think Amen, JSJ, and Tari will be on surplus contracts once their extensions kick in. It is going to be hard to build around those guys except through draft once all their extensions hit if they are paid appropriately. Rockets are likely going to need to consolidate value to the short term or send value to the long term.
we need a good PG, and Fred is not it…he’s simply nowhere near good enough if we’re trying to compete, and we have no one else on the roster that can be a PG while we’re here sending love letters to Fred, the years waste away in the competitive Western Conference the guy will be 33 next year and is clearly declining, is coming off missing a whole season, and always has injury problems Why do we keep going on dates with this dude? Stone, move on to something better, please!!
He has Ime's trust, showed out last year in the playoffs, and most importantly, has a player option and thus has leverage here. The options that Stone has: Tell FVV he isn't in our future plans. He opts into his $25M player option and we are forced to make difficult decisions this offseason Re-sign Tari and go over first apron - roster moves restricted in future years Re-sign Tari and try to duck first apron by offloading salary to a team with cap space - will cost us assets. If FVV is the salary you try to offload, then you need to find a PG in the open market with only the taxpayer MLE to use Let Tari go to avoid first apron - lose a contributing wing for nothing Tell FVV he isn't in our future plans and we plan to trade him to a team looking for his vet leadership FVV accepts the deal and we are able to trade him - now you need to find a PG via MLE or in the trade itself (someone like Anfernee Simons) FVV tells the new team he does not want to join them and opts into his $25M player option - now you are back to scenario 1, but with a pissed off FVV FVV opts out of his $25M player option - now you've lost him for nothing and need to find a PG via MLE Do a broader re-tooling / rebuild and trade all your big salaries - Stone/Ime's comments suggest we are not going down this path Work with FVV to keep him around longer term but at a lower annual salary Of these, #4 makes the most sense to me and aligns with Ime/Stone's exit interviews. You are right that FVV is aging, and I am on board with prioritizing better PG depth this offseason. Guys like Ty Jerome, Tre Jones, or Bub Carrington are young and on non-contending teams with crowded backcourts.
This is the best news I’ve heard in a while. I thought we’d have to attach picks to get rid of his contract but it’s really only a 1 year deal left. Amazing.
If Reed Sheppard becomes a $35MM/yr player we won't have a cap problem because we'll be really good. I also don't see what the fuss is about FVV for $50MM for 3yrs. That's MLE money which is quite literally average player money. So, you're not committing to him as your starting PG. There are many bench players playing on a midlevel. it's also a moveable contract. I also think Tari making $20-22MM is not crazy. People have to remember the mid-level is gonna start at ~$15.5MM next year. So, other teams will take a chance on a young player for that kind of money. That's his floor. Beyond that, I wouldn't be surprised to see the rockets take on a "bad" contract to get another shooter in the rotation for some of their spare parts. There will eb some changes here. All this is based on your OP. I don't have access to the chron article.
On Reed becoming a $35M player or not, if he's paid appropriately, it won't really help that much as his salary will keep Rockets from adding help other places. Reed to me is already in the JSJ and Tari level of player after only his 2nd year. I expect he will be better than Tari and JSJ. If Reed stays around the Tari-JSJ level of player, I think the Rockets will have to depend on either Sengun or Amen becoming a solid All-NBA player (i.e., not just a random good year making 3rd team). There should also be a litle extra room for another exception signing, though maybe not full MLE. On FVV, here's $50M spread evenly below. I see a lot of money over the 1st apron in 27-28, which leads to a lot of luxury taxes as the tax rate goes up further over the luxury tax. I don't really see room for a bad contract. 28-29 and 29-30 look like one vet on a full MLE plus maybe a little wiggle room for small trades. Get unlucky with draft picks, maybe have room to use MLE twice over the next 4 years to have 2 full MLE players at a time in the 29-30 season. I expect some trades will happen, but this is mostly to look at the base scenario of keeping the young core together. Keeping the young core together basically means they have to provide almost all the team's value, as the Rockets likely only have 1 vet making the MLE in the post-Durant years. I don't think the draft picks will help much right off the bat. I think the Rockets are in a good position to make trades at the trade deadline. Unless the Rockets do something like Sengun for Giannis, I doubt there will be a good deal with Sengun this offseason (i.e., if you don't want Giannis, the deals will probably be worse).
