As good of a pitching prospect as Tolle is , I think you have to go wide if you move pena . Also it plays into our larger strategy... Are we simply punting to next year or are we tearing down ? Either way , I like Tolle , but it would be easy to imagine he pitches great for us but then gets hurt in a year or two . Even if the value is fair , no 1 for 1 with pena
So who are we picking next year with our top 3 pick (Assuming the baseball gods won't screw us with the lottery)
Way too early to know, probably an underslot HS infielder. Dylan Seward, Chase Fuller, Carter Hadnot are guys on the radar.
I actually believe that if Brown and Hader hadn't gotten hurt this team would be above .500. The trickle down from having a rotation stabilizer and an elite closer would have prevented so many of the losses that were the result of a spent bullpen, which is most of them.
It is time to fold up the tent. Crane needs to decide if he is keeping Brown for the foreseeable future. He should hire someone like Mike Rizzo or another recently active GM to do a deep dive on the Astros system and Dana Brown. With that information he should decide whether he wants to go with Brown for next season. Assuming the answer is yes, he should have Brown dispatch his scouts, and get Dana more involved in scouting the prospects of other organizations. They should trade Alvarez while he is playing very well and have a very high value. Start the process of trading everyone other than Altuve to accumulate as much minor league talent as possible. Play Matthews and Cole every game - decide if they like Blubaugh as a high leverage reliever or starter and put him there and keep him there. Alvarez/Brown/Pena - should get you a monster return. Paredes should get you a pretty good return, but he can play out the rest of the season if and be moved this Winter if he struggles up to the break. Try to move Hader this Winter unless he does really well on the return and is open to being moved. Move Abreu, Meyers for lower level minor leaguers. Tell Brown to dump Walker ASAP to clear the money, use some of the money to improve scouting for the 2026-2027 drafts. Finish in the bottom 3 of the league in the standings to increase your bonus pool and put a lot of emphasis on the draft and minor league system the next 12 months. Guys like Arrighetti, Blubaugh, Pecko, Matthews, Cole, Dezenzo and Loperfido can play every day and see if you get one of two real contributors out of that group.
I just don’t see Hader or Alvarez agreeing to a trade. Seems like everywhere I read people act like those two guys will readily waive their no-trade. I know these guys hate losing but Yordan and especially Hader seem like they would hate being traded. To me you let Dana trade Pena and the lesser pieces. I’d hire a former GM as a consultant to get a 2nd pair of eyes on all those. Shop Hunter and if both Dana and the GM agree it’s an overwhelming return then fine, otherwise let the new GM shop Hunter this offseason. Keep all the expensive guys. Sign FA to 1-2 year deals to backfill whoever was traded to feign contention while Yordan, Altuve, and Correa are still around thru 2028. Meanwhile with the high draft picks from 2025-2027 and 2026 trade deadline haul, a new window should be set to open in 2029. It’ll cost Crane some money to try to serve both masters but it can be done. Obvs picking the right new Gm is huge.
I like all of this except trading Yordan. I think you must make 1 last effort to get Altuve and Correa another ring. If it's not 2027, then that must be 2028 and I do not see any scenario where there's a better than 50% chance Yordan's trade return leads to more wins than Yordan himself. In fact, I extend Yordan 3 yrs up to $120M (hoping for $90m) and make him the face of the team as Correa and Altuve age out. But that's just me. I am content to watch Yordan even on a 100 loss team. (Good thing) I prefer watching Altuve get 3000 hits, Correa make a HOF run ( wishful I know) and Yordan become the 2nd Astro with 400+ HR on a losing team than watch a 90 win team with a 20% chance to win the World Series without those guys.
Where are they going to get enough pitching to compete for a ring in the next year or two? They would need everyone to come back healthy and productive when instead guys either havent gotten healthy or have come back a shell of their former selves. They would also need to hit on trades or signings which Brown has a mixed at best track record with. I guess it's possible but everything would need to go right when almost nothing has gone right with the org over the past couple of years.
The thing that makes pitching so risky is the same thing that always leaves room for optimism: you never know when a guy will pop up as a ToR SP. Keuchel, Framber, and Morton were nobodies until the busted out. There’s also the potential to trade for established guys (like Cole, Greinke, and JV) once you know your lineup is in place. Who knows if an Ethan Pecko or a Bryce Mayer will end up being one of the 20 best pitchers in the league for 3-4 seasons. It’s unlikely, but getting those unlikely successes is a big part of how the Astros got over the top from 2017-2022.
I just have very little faith that the current FO and player development group have the ability to accomplish what we could do on the past in the examples you mention. Look at Burrows - if anything, he’s gotten worse as a pitcher since joining Houston. For every success this FO has had in identifying and developing pitching talent, there have been 3x or 4x as many disasters.
I think it’s too early to tell. They’ve seemed to have done well with Teng and Lambert. Arrighetti has looked great. They busted with Weiss and Imai, and Burrows has been a mixed bag. I think if the rotation on opening day had been Brown, Arrighetti, Burrows, Lambert, and Teng then everybody would be a lot more positive (although there would be plenty of talk about the wasted $60M on McCullers, Javier, and Imai). They’ve just guessed wrong and taken too long to sort through the options, and were hamstrung by bad contracts and injuries.
Pena and Paredes can bring back multiple prospect/pre-arb TOR candidates. If Brown is the scout many think he is, he can find several additional rotation candidates as well in deals for Walker, Meyers, Diaz, Okert and Abreu. Off the top of my head maybe River Ryan of the Dodgers could be included in a package w/ one of their top 50 OFs (3 in top 38) for Pena. Maybe Boston sends a guy like Anthony Eyanson in a package for Paredes? Add them to Brown + whoever is healthy and good from Blanco, Wesneski, Walter, Arrighetti, Lambert, Burrows, Pecko, Forcucci, Mayer, Ullola, Tredwell, Hicks, and Teng I am not in favor of trading TOR pitchers in their walk year like position players or bullpen arms. Just enjoy their final year and get the comp pick. To me that looks like enough depth to find enough effective and healthy starts.
Start by deciding if you want to trade Hunter, Trade everybody but Alvarez and that includes Altuve. Keep the the pitching you like and trade the other pitching. I don't believe in overreacting to the pitching being hurt. If I was Crane, I would trade Pena plus for a good young controllable SP like Tolle. Keep Hunter and sign one higher end SP in FA. Also keep Arrighetti. Next years rotation would look like this Hunter, Arrighetti, FA, Tolle, Burrows What I wouldn't do is let Dana or Espada.ake these decisions.
Trading Altuve is like trading Craig Biggio when he has 2999 hits. It would be almost as stupid as selling the Astros for $1.99. O.K. hyperbole but I made my point. For better or worse, Altuve is an Astro for 3+ more seasons. However, you CAN sit him on the bench more often and DH him with Yordan playing more LF to help keep him from wearing down. No way you COULD trade Altuve even if you wanted to though because he has 100% no trade and I see no scenario where he agrees to a trade.
When Meyers is ready to come off the I.L. I think Cam may ( temporarily) be the odd man out. Both Cole and Dezenzo can play RF, are outplaying Cam right now, and with both Jake and Matthews on the roster playing time in CF will all but disappear. The interesting question is Nick Allen. Shewmake has taken his role so when Pena returns, do you keep 2 utility infielders when you have a backup catcher without a bat? I like Allen as a plus defender backing up 2b, SS, and 3b but not with Shewmake already on the team.
To me it makes a lot of sense to send Smith down. Gives them a better look at Cole/Matthews/Dezenzo and gains another year of control over Smith while he works on correcting his launch angle and keeping his approach consistent. Whitcomb is not playing at all so he is clearly going to be sent down. This is what Id like to see: SS Pena DH Alvarez 3B Paredes 1B Walker RF Cole 2B Altuve CF Meyers LF Matthews C Vazquez Bench: UT Shewmake, C Salazar, IF/PR Allen, OF/1B Dezenzo
There should be no sacred cows that get in the way of building a winning team. I realize Altuve isn't going anywhere, but if I was in charge I would try to move him.
There is way too much sky is falling regarding our pitching staff. It is extremely pessimistic to think Brown won’t come back and be the Ace he has been the last couple of years, Arrighetti has been way better than advertised, Lambert may be one of those diamonds in the rough, Burrows has very good stuff and projects to be a solid MOR starter. Like you said we have guys in the minors that could break out like Pecko. Hopefully, Pena will bring back some good pitching prospects as well, if we decide to trade him. If we can’t string together some series wins before the deadline, we are probably out of it this year, but burning down the house and going into another 5 year re-build is a ridiculous overreaction.
