I wonder if those contracts coming back to bite their teams to some degree will lower the market value a little bit. I think most people consider those guys overpaid now. Teams have been a little bit more shy on handing out these kinds of big extensions dating back to last offseason. Some players got them, but some had to take significantly less (Giddey, Sharpe) or got traded/sent to free agency (like we just saw happen with White and Ayo). You also have to think about the team context wherein Sengun and Jabari both agreed to, I would suggest, slightly sub-market-value deals in order to get locked in a year sooner on long-term money. There's a hierarchy there and some establishment of precedents and organizational norms to think about. I still think a little less than the max is likely here. Sengun took, if I'm doing the math correctly, 82% of the money he could have gotten, in order to get locked in on 5 years with the 5th being a player option. I think something similar is the median outcome here for Amen.
The “Soft Reset” Trade, He’s not worth 250 million: Wizards: Amen Thompson Rockets: Kyshawn George, Bilal Coulibaly, 4 Wiz First
The Sengun situation was VERY VERY different, because of cap space and cap hold rules Sengun simply could not get close to a max contract unless he was willing to wait. The rockets gain nothing waiting with Amen so his leverage is infinitely higher.
I thought you were the efficiency guy? Surely you can't be advocating for one of the worst shooters in league history just because his "ts%" is high due to shooting almost all of his shots directly beneath the basket? I suppose if we're leaning into being the next Adelman era Rockets he's a big upgrade from our other midget center in the Chuck Wagon? Is that the plan?
I think you responded to the wrong post? I was talking about the cap hold situation because Sengun was a low draft pick, which made giving up a max completely impossible unless he waited a year.
My bad, I thought you were advocating for an Amen max with the last bit of your post referencing his leverage, my mistake.
Oh, no, i just think it's important to also look at the situation and not just player a vs player b in a vacuum, because CBA rules also impact contracts a fair bit.
Yeah that's very fair, but with the current CBA giving out big contracts compared the past also handcuffs the team more, I don't think it works in favour of Amen at all. Imagine how horrific it'd be for us if we gave Amen a max whilst Detroit got a similar (but better currently, based on results) player in his twin for 10mil or more less? And they actually HAVE a star player.
I definitely don't agree that Ausar is better than Amen, i think he's a considerably worse offensive player. He shoots worse from 2 and WAY worse from the line, he hurts your offense more than Amen (and is a worse ball handler and passer). He was better on defense this season though for sure than Amen but long term I don't think there's much of a difference. I agree that bad contracts are more damaging but what do you do then? Just trade everyone who's not a lock to be a top 10 player? I have been super against trading for those types though (guys like fox, jaylen brown, bam, etc.) i think are awful contracts and i wouldn't trade ANYTHING of value for those types. I wouldn't max Amen personally but i would not be surprised if he gets close.
Both players' only value is on the defensive end. Ausar's probably going to be the more valuable player because he WON'T get near to the max and will be played in the role they should both have. Amen's going to be an overpaid contract for no massive difference in results than Ausar - that's the problem, because we don't have an alpha player to force the team into a realistic hierarchy in contracts. I'd honestly rather let him walk in RFA than overpay him at this point.
Ausar is a worse player than Amen. Anyone who's watched both can see that. He basically played the role this year that Amen played last year and was probably worse at it. Amen is being groomed to be much more than some ancillary dunker spot dude. Which probably upsets some of his detractors who hope thats all he'll ever be.
Ya we are pretty far apart here, Amen is just way better on offense. If it's 50 for amen vs 20 for Ausar that's one thing, but if it's like 45 vs 35 i'm taking Amen 100%
All of your posts are just blatantly false. By all advanced metrics Amen has twice the impact Ausaur has, its really not close at all. There is a reason no smart basketball person is predicting Ausaur will get anything close to a max.
I'd still take Amen because I can get better value for that 20 versus finding another guy worth close to 50 with potential
No you're just missing my point. I just don't think Amen's shown enough potential on offense (whilst obviously being better than Ausar) to pay him 10s of millions more and remove our cap flexibility to acquire an ACTUAL star. Amen is 6'7 Mobley waiting to happen.
I don't think it is though, that's the point. I think Ausar's going to be paid as a defensive specialist role player, and Amen's going to be paid like Evan Mobley was paid, and be the 6'7 version with significantly less accolades.
Ya we’ll see, not the rockets get to choose which one they pay. Ausar is someone who genuinely does hurt your offense and amen does not, which is a massive difference.
Amen CAN be as defensively good as Ausar, or even better, should the team choose to use him in that role , and can also be a more useful secondary creator & more than just dunker spot guy, should the team choose to use him in that role. Ausar doesn't have that versatility which is why he gets paid less
I mean, you say that, but he only doesn't hurt the offense because he's barely involved in it outside of the dunker spot, his shot chart proves that. Like you said you wouldn't want to trade for a Fox, Brown etc type player, Fox shot 32% from deep year 4, Brown shot 38% and Amen shot 21%. They're LEAGUES beyond him as a shooter, like it's not even remotely in the same ballpark. Amen's great parked under the basket, everywhere else he's a complete non-factor on offense.
