Is the difference between us and Detroit really the #1 pick?

We are just speculating on a 23 year old player with some of the greatest athleticism to ever grace a basketball court. He also improved his handle and FT% considerably in one off-season. The Pg experiment lasted all of about 10 games. Dribbling the ball up and handing it to Durant and Sengun, which he was instructed to do, is not playing Pg.

I will not underestimate a guy with that work ethic and that athleticism from improving in every area on the floor as he gets closer to his prime. I think he would be closer already with good coaching and a decent offensive rotation. It’s ok that others have a different opinion. I see a future 25-30 pt scorer with 8 assists in the right system and coaching. Add to that all-nba defense and you have a superstar by most anybody’s definition.

Saying that Amen is not a potential lead initiator (call it pg, point forward) because he didn’t prove it this year is a false narrative being trumpeted by guys that said he would fail as a pg before the season started. They then pretended to act like that was the position he was put in to aggrandize their supposed superior basketball knowledge, which is contrary to what actually happened on the court.

 

I'm jealous of that team not having to face a single healthy roster en route to the finals. Every other year when they actually played healthy teams they collapsed as heavy favorites, everyone here would be calling for Mazzulla's head.

Cade is def head and shoulders above any young player we have on our roster, but I do agree I have my doubts about JB Bickerstaff. He is def improved from when he was the Rockets/Cavs coach though.

 

I hope you're right! It's still a long way to go to get there. I will be happy if he manages to become a clear, consensus top 10 player, which I think he can do. I agree with your reasoning for being bullish on him improving, I'm just not as optimistic on him going the entire distance to superstar/MVP contender status. I guess our difference is you're thinking he'll increase his averages by around 10 and 3 respectively, whereas I think more like 5 and 2 is more realistic. But real improvement for sure, as long as he stays healthy (knock on wood).

 

I'd counter that with Cade's efficiency being more than acceptable because he can actually lead his team to wins and playoff success. Amen can't even lead his team to a competent offense, so the experiment gets rapidly ended in favour of *checks notes* turnover over prone "point KD." Seems legit this premise of yours I'm also not sure how much "giving the keys" changes a man who can't shoot outside of about 10 ft (see aforementioned visual aids) into one who can?

 

I don't think you can force them to do it. Neither of them can dribble at starting point guard level and I doubt that they'll just learn it. We need a real point guard. They'll both massively improve playing with one.

 

The biggest problem with Amen isn't him increasing his scoring by 10 points, it's him increasing his percentages by amounts that have rarely ever been achieved. Using his shot chart on statmuse, literally the only place on the court he exceed league average is directly under the basket, and he exceeds it by 5%. THe problem is as soon as you move even a couple of feet away from that spot he instantly drops massively. Here's some picture examples as to why this ridiculous notion that he's a surefire future superstar are MASSIVELY misplaced. We're not talking someone who needs to increase a couple of percentage points, we're talking somebody who is pretty terrible from most of the floor. We're talking a historically trash shooter, his "high percentages" and "true shooting percentage" are smoke and mirrors brought about entirely by him hitting shots if he's right beneath the basket. Well ****ing duh, he's supposedly the most athletic guy in the league right? Of course he can score when he's so close any blind person could put it in. People are right though, he's definitely "generational" as in generationally bad fundamentals.

 

Cade is a 3 level scorer. The Rockets currently have one of those guys on the roster.

Amen and Sengun are 1 level scorers.

Durant and Jabari are 2 level scorers. I could buy Durant being a 2 1/2 level scorer.

 

He was actually pretty good from 3-10ft this season (48.6%). Those aren't necessarily all layups, although some of them are layup-ish shots; some are even short-range jump shots. I think he can improve both his scoring volume and efficiency if he increases the number of those shots he takes while getting just a little better (>50%) on them. The other big thing he can use, even if he never becomes a real 3P threat, would be to draw more free throws. He showed real signs of improvement in that area this season.

I believe he will bust his ass and while I don't think he will increase his scoring volume or efficiency by massive amounts, I think he can improve in both areas. And I don't think it would take much for him to be in the 10-15 range leaguewide as far as overall value, considering his defense/rebounding/playmaking. I think 21 or maybe 22 points and 7 assists gets him there, if the efficiency also improves just a little bit.

Getting into the top 10 will be harder, but maybe doable depending on the amount of improvement. To get to that level, I think he needs to at least be a Draymond Green, "You kinda-sorta have to guard him" level shooter. I think he can also do that, but I'll admit it's a bit more of a reach to imagine.

 

Dude look at the charts. That genuinely suggests to you that this is a talented offensive player who could be a top 10 player in the league? He makes Igoudala look like Michael Jordan or. Seriously though. Find me one top 10 player in the last 10 years (so somewhat relevant to this era) with a shot chart where almost every spot on the floor is way below league average?

 

When was the last time the Rockets discovered a Daniss Jenkins, some undrafted guy that plays heavy clutch minutes.

 

That burner account was on 3 levels.

 

Giannis of course, Anthony Davis' shot charts aren't quite as bad, but they aren't worlds apart. That's the vision for Amen as a top 10 player I think. He won't be as good as Giannis or Davis, but the player profile and value proposition is similar: A forward who gives you elite defense, rebounding, very good paint scoring, can hurt you a little bit moving out toward the FT line or on wide open corner threes.

What you're going to come back and say is to talk about those guys' height and overall size, and, sure. Amen will never be 6'11". But his athleticism covers some of the gap, and again, I'm not saying he'll be as good as those two guys. He's going to be kind of the lite version, and you can live with that or you can't.

Edit: Another one who at one time had about as bad of a shot chart just barely before your 10 year window was Blake Griffin (3x All-NBA second team, and also an example of a guy who was godawful at shooting and figured it out eventually.)

 

No I don't need to, look at their shot charts. Here's Giannis from year 4, same as Amen. Do you see the MASSIVE ****ing difference? It's not the same bro, you're wrong. Don't even remotely need to discuss his size. Again, give me one top 10 player with a shot chart like Amen? As I've just shown you "non shooting" Giannis, is LEAGUES beyond him. It's embarrassing you thought you had a point there, god damn man.

 

Blake Griffin year 4 shot chart. Strike 2. Next pitch?

 

And y'all genuinely have the audacity to say I'm the one who doesn't understand the game, I actually WATCHED Griffin and Giannis, I would've never even tried to claim they shot almost all of their buckets within 3ft of the basket lol.

 

That season Giannis shot the following percentages from the following distances:

0-3ft: 70.9%
3-10ft: 39.4%
10-16ft: 33.8%
16ft to 3P range: 34.2%
Three point shots: 27.2%

Amen this season shot:

0-3ft: 76.0%
3-10ft: 48.6%
10-16ft: 32.5%
16ft to 3P range: 33.3%
Three point shots: 21.6%

Aside from the three pointers, it looks pretty similar to me. Amen actually shot better percentages inside of 10 feet, in fact. (A lot of that is down to type of usage, to be fair.)

One last point on shot volume--these guys shot really badly on those midrange shots outside the FT line. Sub-40% is a BAD shot. The fact that Amen doesn't take these shots is a positive, not a negative like you seem to think it is.

I think you and I probably just need to stop arguing about this topic dude. I like your posts more often than not, but it's not enjoyable talking to you when you keep being like "God damn man you're embarrassing". Let's just agree to disagree, I post here for fun and try to avoid these types of arguments that devolve into getting angry at somebody for being wrong on the internet.

 

Look at the 2 charts and the volumes from each distance. It's not similar dude. You're wrong, sorry, but you are. Also, Amen's played as a guard all year, Giannis was a PF in year 4 and has a shot chart resembling a PF. Amen's looks very devoid of anything outside of right underneath the basket, you do see that, right? You understand that tiny little dots means he barely even had any shots from there, right? You're looking at the percentages and discounting ALL of the volume. The shot charts are NOT ****ing similar, how much self delusion do you want to hold?

 

Blake actually developed a decent shot. Took him some time but he did it. Idk about Amen

 

Look at the difference between their charts in year 4. Blake was actually shooting them, Amen doesn't, because he doesn't even have the potential. That's what @OremLK isn't understanding. Blake was a mediocre shooter (Still 27% from deep, way better than Amen) but he took the shots because the form and potential was there, he just needed to work on it. Amen doesn't take the shots. He's that limited he'd ruin any chance at team success if he did. Look how similar Blake and Giannis' shot charts look? 2 power forwards who had to improve their shots to be star level. Now look at how empty Amen's is? This is why all these Amen stans calling me out for apparently "not knowing the game" are beyond the pale - they know absolutely nothing, and that becomes clear the second you put their beliefs under real scrutiny.

 

All right, I really am going to stop arguing with you about this after this and go spend some time with my family before bed (it's almost 8 here). But I want to point out on this topic:

Amen is playing in a very different league environment from the one Blake Griffin or even Giannis or AD came up in. Midrange shots were still much more accepted back then. Those guys were all terrible at those distances. As in, sub-40%, often sub-35% depending on the shot in question. They were bad shots that nobody who isn't elite at them should be taking. None of those guys should have been taking those shots at the time, and Giannis and AD still shouldn't. The NBA understands this now, but it was still permeating through the league's collective culture a decade ago as the pace and space era was taking hold. Amen knows he shouldn't take bad shots, he's a smart player, so he rarely takes them. What you're seeing is a difference in era.

Now, I'm not claiming that Amen is as talented as Giannis or AD (mainly due to his height, and I think they might be slightly more talented as jump shooters). But I am claiming that what you're seeing in shot selection is mainly a difference in the era a player came up in, not talent level. And in fact, that Amen is smart enough not to be like Paolo Banchero is to his credit, not a knock on him as a player.