I'd like to say, "On the bright side, FVV and DFS are essentially expiring contracts," but....come on, Stone:
OK let's unpack this one. First, I don't think you need to dig deep into the advanced stats to figure out the Durant was a huge part of those 52 wins, the trad stats numbers speak for themselves. PPG, Shooting, All-NBA - hell just watching him hit 16 foot jumpshots better than two titular members of the young core (Eason and Sengun) can hit layups is enough for most people. Second, even the advanced stats support htis; Frankly I don't love using advanced stats for the Rockets because they tend to make Sengun look like a way better player than he actually is becuase he gets rebounds. According to some advanced stats he is almost as good as Durant. I have had to watch this guy enough to know that's bullshit. Also, hilariously this is the greatest Rockes offense EVER - highest o-rtg during hte regular season, ironically becuase they are good at getting their own missed shots. I mean, I don't know what to say about that other than to laugh. It is what it is, and the Rockets are better than the 73 win Warriors on offense, but they are. Anyway, Durant leads teh team in VORP (4.7), BPM (4.5), all that stuff - the highest such numbers since Harden era. What is the deal then with the the unadjusted on-off numbers? My guess is taht Because Durant played an insane number of minutes, mostly v starters, and generally only missed games vs. tanking teams (excluding the 1 phx game) or sat during the second half of blowouts. Also he didn't have much of a defensive impact - his replacements are just as good or better. When you look at RAPM or LEBROn etc - It's basically Durant (and THompson, bc of defense) in their own class and everyone else. I agree that Thompson is probably also the type of player who the Rockets would be absolutely sunk and in the lottery without. But, his limitations as a shooter complicate how you build your team in a way that Durant does not (and Sengun is the worst of both worlds). Well, that's pretty close to sucks IMO but whatever.
How do you know what Stone “knows”? I agree with everything you said, but it seems you are just projecting your thoughts as if they are Stone’s, Ime’s, and Tito’s. Ime knowing he is inept at anything is a stretch. He is a narcissist and, yes, I’m saying that as an amateur psychologist, but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a more obvious diagnosis outside of politics. Narcissists have no clue as to their own weaknesses. As far as Stone is concerned, I don’t know what he believes, but it is apparent to me that he has no power. Ime is calling the shots.
But, they obviously are by any metric! How many games would the Rockets win if you had replaced them with Jeff Green, Jaesean Tate, Dorian Finney Smith? (These are the available options) - the answer is less than 52, probably substantially less. These things don't happen in a vaccuum - there's a reason why teh double big lineup started to run out of steam around January. Extrapolating out spot minutes here and there isn't as useful as you claim (nor is it even possible with Adams history)
Depends on what else they are going to do. If I were running the Rockets, I would move the veterans and Sengun for draft assets and take a step back in an effort to try and get a star in the draft. The Rockets GM/HC are going to do everything possible to win as many games as possible next season so that they keep their owner happy. With that in mind I wouldn't trade KD -- if anything I would try to find a way to add Quintin Grimes or Ayo Dosunmu to the rotation. I think that the handling of the last free agent period by the Rockets was rather poor outside of the Smith extension. The Rockets management has basically set themselves up to have to gamble that the old players stay healthy enough. No one has said it public, but they have to win a playoff series --- and chances are better with KD than a pick they would get for KD
Udoka won't win here. We need a change and like you said not good enough to pretty much get by and lose in the Playoffs. We don't have a system because we have a terrible coach. I don't think players are held accountable because Ime wants to do things his way and Stone isn't a basketball guy imo. Now all this stuff comes out about KD and nobody did anything. That's terrible management.
Is that really how team construction works though? Just rely solely on the "young core" (this was Reed's and Amen's 2nd and 3rd year respectively)? Never trade or acquire new players? I could see your point if I suddenly got amnesia and forgot how the NBA has worked... Having a bad season with a lot of bad injury luck then throwing up your hands and saying well the last 6 years was a waste is classic irrational GARM.
Yeah, defense is not the problem, even with both Sengun and Reed on the court. On offense, Amen playing with Sengun as a point guard is not going to work. I do think Amen playing off ball as a lob threat and offensive rebounder would probably give Sengun more room to operate and the shooters more open looks. I am still undecided on the main cause of Sengun's low efficiency. We could be a very good team if he could convert at a higher percentage round the rim.
I'm just going based in his press conference last year where he said the same thing about Jalen Green. And just general common sense. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit in thinking he's not stupid enough to actually believe the words he's saying.
Ime does not have that level of self-awareness. In his eyes, Sengun, Amen, Jabari, and Reed should just grow up.
Were not managed by whom? Irrational fans? It was crazy to think the Rockets were all of sudden going to be all in every season like the end of Harden's tenure. The real issue is that fans can't manage their expectations and go so far to actually take a press conference as real insight into the FO's thinking. Most FOs will make mistakes and we can't do anything about SAS and Mavs getting the best lottery luck in decades. FVV is 33, not 37 and has never had a major season ending injury until recently. I'm not sure why you keep pushing this "injury prone narrative". Look at SGA games played.... would you say he's injury prone too? I doubt it. DFS has only had two major injuries that had long absences, one of them happening this season and knee issue from 2017. Adams you have a case for. The KD trade was universally praised when it happened and also the subsequent 2 year extension on a discount. KD was awesome and had a bad injury luck too. What's frustrating is how these narratives become fact when it's a bit more complicated than that. You need FVV to be injury prone while I'm looking at the data.
There's a major difference between FVV missing an entire regular season and playoffs vs 20 games. The injury narrative is one of those half truths. Injuries are affecting all teams.... look at the MVP and All Team NBA discussion this year... a bit of it revolved around making the games played requirement.
I too would trade those guys for draft picks and take a swing on a franchise guy. This is where folks trying to keep their jobs is at odds with what’s best for the long term success of the team. And I agree, it’s very unlikely Stone and Ime are willing to take a strategic step back. Unfortunately winning a playoff series feels like a bridge to nowhere given the ceiling on this team without a franchise player. This is actually my worst nightmare. I can stomach a team that wins 40 games if the future is bright. I can’t stomach a team that loses in the 2nd round, and they’ve maxed out their potential.
If KD is so important why do Suns look so much better. Why did the Warriors wi another chip without him. Why did Kyrie go to the finals with Luka but couldnt get out of the first round with KD after Harden left. KD has favorable stats because he shoots well. Its misleading. It makes some fools think we cant survive or be better without him when it couldnt be farther from the truth. Also dont pull that BS Fred card there were plenty of point guards available that were just as good if not better than Fred. Both KD and Fred should be traded as soon as a reasonable trade appears. We are going nowhere with either despite what your stats say about how important they are we will go nowhere with them.
even if you reject the narrative around Fred being injury prone, you have to admit that the older a player is, the more likely they are to get injured. And certainly you are more likely to get injured coming off a major injury. That and there’s also a good chance they aren’t the players they were pre-injury. So Steveo and Fred are big injury risks next season, and possibly lesser players. KD is an injury risk because of his age and mileage on those tires. Knowing that, not sure it makes good sense to go down that path relative to alternatives. Fair?
