A hypothetical in which the Tigers move early to overwhelm the Astros and get in front of the market: Tigers get: SP Hunter Brown SS Jeremy Pena Astros get: OF Max Clark SS Bryce Rainer C/1B Josue Briceno SS Jordan Yost P Ty Madden PRBNL (complex level pitcher of the Astros’ choosing) That’s 3 top 100 prospects and 4 of their top 9 plus a MLB ready arm. Clark is a top 10 prospect in the league.
I like it I don't think there is any way Crane goes for it. I see zero chance Crane makes any move that reduces the chances of competing in 2028 and Hunter is irreplaceable for that. I still think Crane may not approve any move that reduces the chances of competing this year either. I can see an avenue for trading Pena but not Hunter. Not this year.
Sale went for the #2 and 18 prospect in baseball when he had 3 years of club control at non astronomical prices. I would think Hunter Needs to get 3 top 100 prospects (or at least 2 top 25 prospects) by himself. I would think this is a little light. I would want 5 top 100 prospects for those two guys- 3 in the top 50, two in the back half. Plus another throw in on each guy. That seems light one guy but what the hell do I know?
Browns injury was what made me think that was fair. If they’re both healthy and performing well by early June and have a full 6-7 weeks of healthy elite performance leading into the deadline the yes that’s probably not enough. But if Detroit offered that today I would be very tempted to take if given the chances of either player having a signifanft setback.
I like the idea , like you said . Brown and pena aren't playing for us right now anyways . But I don't know prospects that well. Anyways , what gives me pause is rainer had shoulder surgery. And the top prospect is an OF when arguably our two best OF prospects are getting PT in MLB right now . I don't want CC playing too much SS . Guy is doing great , but I want him for the long haul and he's taken some wear and tear this year already If you trade brown you gotta get back a near MLB ready top up the middle infield prospect . You can get some lottery ticket arms too . For pena , I think it would be hard to get a top SS prospect for him , given most teams would just choose to control their own player. Give me the top catching prospect for pena . .. or pitching, but tinstaapp Ok here are some hypotheticals. Hunter brown to Cincinnati for Duno and Edwin arroyo. Duno is the #2 catching prospect in baseball and arroyo can play defense at the MLB level now . For pena it's tougher to see a fit . How many contenders need an upgrade at SS ? Even before his breakout pena was a 4 war player 2 years in a.row.with his defense . He's a very solid player . Having a slow start and missing time this year actually might make him less expensive in arbitration next year . ATL maybe . The NL central looks like the division to target . I'd rather not trade him in division. Maybe Tampa bay, Toronto, or NYY . Pena if healthy is a great piece for us . I think you have to go ultrawide on the return for him . Or get an MLB proven starter. Plus a lotto ticket . For example , from Tampa bay (who I don't think wants to do a trade for pena , Idk what their timeline is , but maybe they take him aiming to flip him next year , idk ) Either gimme Rasmussen plus a lotto ticket from 25+ on their org chart . Or I'm taking , well this is funny , brito and melton are 3 and 5 in the rays system. Those two plus another prospect feel like kind of a light return . But depending on the other prospect you could be taking 3 out of the top 10/15 of their farm system and not feeling great . I think that's objective fair value. Definitely more than we paid for Mike burrows , by 1 or 2 prospects . How much can you raid a farm system ? You gotta get 5 prospects for pena , 3 of them being in the top 15 and 2 more from the 20-40 range . Ok because I'm sick I'll do one more pena trade . Now I do like didier fuentes from ATL , but they are contending this year . And their starting SS is Mauricio dubon , so we can help them upgrade, plus pena /dubon familiarity. Dana should have the inside scoop from that org and maybe gets a deal on the level of a hunter pence trade . We've got to totally pillage ATLs system Can we get caminiti and bagwell hahaha ?
Best fits for Pena: Guardians, Rays, Braves, maybe Brewers Best fits for Paredes: Pirates, Yankees, maybe Brewers Rays are often willing to get creative but they are a dangerous team to trade with because they are so good at scouting and player development. Pena for Theo Gillen, Brody Hopkins, and Daniel Pierce would be a good trade for Houston. Tampa might be willing to do that if Pena comes back and is healthy/productive. Dubon is probably playing well enough that Atlanta might not be motivated to move major pieces for a SS. But that can change quickly.
Theory is good, however this is the Tigers. They most likely aren't spending any young capital to build their team up even more as franchises like them seem to go with the wave of their own talent. If they have a down year they may just blow it up themselves on what they currently have.
Astros chance of making the playoffs is in single digits. Here's my expected value for their sell-side trade chips: Brown: 1 MLB Top 30 prospect + 1 MLB Top 75 prospect + 1 MLB Top 125 prospect + 1 lotto prospect Pena: 1 MLB Top 50 prospect + 1 MLB Top 100 prospect + 1 Org Top 10 (grade 45+) prospect Paredes: 1 MLB Top 75 prospect + 1 Org Top 10 (grade 45+) + 1 Org Top 30 (grade 40+) prospect Walker: 1 Org Top 20 prospect (grade 45) + 1 Org Top 30 (grade 40+) prospect (assumes Houston pays down some money and Walker doesn't block the trade) Meyers: 1 Org Top 20 prospect (grade 45) + 1 Org Top 30 (grade 40+) prospect Lambert: 1 Org Top 20 (grade 45) prospect + 1 lotto prospect Diaz: 2 org Top 20 (grade 45) prospects Abreu: 2 Org Top 30 (grade 40+) prospects Vazquez: 2 Org Top 30 (grade 40+) prospects Okert, De Los Santos: lotto prospect Alexander, Javier, Imai, Weiss, Pearson, Blanco, Bolton, Murray, Sousa, VanWey, Walter, Salazar, Allen, Trammell: no trade value Hader, Alvarez, Altuve, Correa, McCullers: full no-trade clauses Arrighetti, Burrows, Blubaugh, Teng, Ullola, Wesneski, Shewmake, Whitcomb, Cole, Dezenzo, Loperfido, Matthews, Smith, Thomas: controllable pieces to keep
Do we want Dana making these trades with his seat as hot as it is? I don't want him trading with ATL if his fallback is returning to ATL.
There’s a trade off. Trading them now risks Brown ****ing it up but also almost all the players have more value now than they will in the offseason. I definitely dont want Brown trading Yordan. But I think Brown has enough integrity and scouting acumen to execute important trades like Hunter, Pena, and Paredes. Plus too if Dana Brown traded with Atlanta and Houston lost the trade and Brown went back to Atlanta, that would come out and destroy his reputation.
If Lambert continues to pitch well, I would be tempted to offer him a team friendly contract extension to see if he bites. If not, the sweeten the pot a little or trade him. He looks to be a good backend pitcher at a minimum
I don’t think there’s much chance of a GM coming in and being ready to execute a trade deadline in 9-10 weeks. Unless Crane has been working on this for awhile and has his guy lined up, and that guy is already in a role that leads pro scouting…I don’t know.
In the current climate of pitching injuries I’m not sure I would extend any pitchers If Crane has been right about anything it’s staying away from long term investment in pitchers And Lance was a different story in my opinion, I think Crane was fine taking the risk on Lance because of what he had already done for the organization
Who? Any candidates would be people out of work. How many will have the success that Brown has had in multiple stops? I have serious reservations about Brown as an overall GM, but I don’t have a lot of concerns about his ability to draft and develop or young talent evaluation.
I can’t think of anyone good out there. I really don’t want a retread like Evans. It’s a hard thing to know… a few years ago there were people claiming Mike Elias was better than Luhnow… now he could be out of a job this winter. So much goes into running a baseball organization that it really takes a lot of people… like how the Dodgers do it or how the Astros did do it. Brown and his butt buddy Gavin Dickey and an old scout friend isn’t enough. They don’t all need to want to go to get BBQ every Thursday because they are buds. Differences of opinion are good.
