What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

Batteries are a lot better than when they first hit the market. Indeed, most warranties are for 100k miles, but CA extends that to 150k. Those warranties are typically better than the 3 year/36k mile drive train warranties for ICE rigs.

And an EV won't be "totaled" or "worthless" in 10 years. Not even close.

https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/

Anecdotally, I've not seen any noticeable decline in range for my 2020 Mach E.

The issue is that battery degradation has been tested by a constant rate of use followed by rapid charging. Doing that hundreds and thousands of times in a row gives you worse results than normal driving.

https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2...teries-may-last-up-to-40-longer-than-expected

The rate of battery degradation is related to how you charge your EV. Lots of rapid charging gives diminishes it faster than slow charging:

https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/

But nothing suggests a modern EV battery will tap out at 10 years. That's just ICE propaganda. Fact is, EVs have won whether we all recognize it or not. Again, don't be the last guy at the gas station.

 

Nothing you linked has any data I can see beyond 8 years or any data related to cost of repair vs cost of the vehicle post warranty expiration.

So please provide something that formed your opinion on how an EV's worth after 10 years due to battery degradation outside of warranty. I'm very curious.

Manufactures aren't even required to have parts available after that time.

 

I don't know what this sentence means.

In my previous post, I was responding to your wholly unsubstantiated claims that EVs would be totaled and worthless after 10 years. That is clearly not the case.

 

You substantiated your claims with no data past 8 years. 8-10 years is when warranty period expires. What do you know about EV value and cost of repair at 12-13 years old to make these claims?

Have you looked at the value EV's at that age currently have? It is less than that cost it would be to repair a battery. That means mechanically totaled.

 

Horses live 25-30 years. Average car is 13 years. The ROI between a car and a horse is massively different.
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An EV will be a massive evolution jump like it was from the horse to a motor car.

Since we are talking about life spans of mass transportation and the cars evolutionary progress, the average EV lifespan will be closer to 5 years in a decade.

 

The average age of a car on the road right now is 12-13 years. Not total lifespan.

The 2013 Tesla 85D cost much more new than a Lexus LS460 new. It is worth much less now and would cost 3 times as much or more to repair the powertrain.

Comparing horses to cars is crazy but I'm not going to argue with your religion, just the current economic realities.

 

I highly suggest that bandwagoneer never get an ev and stop looking at this thread so he can avoid rupturing his aneurysm.

 

Waymo catching some flak...

https://www.wired.com/story/emergen...ocial&utm_source=bluesky&utm_campaign=aud-dev

 

I'm waiting on 29K Mach-E's at the end of the year fool.

 

Waymo is a bad product. I have been stating this for quite some time. None of these robotaxi's are quite there yet.

 

The value of old cars is often less than replacement value. That's nothing new. People get screwed all the time when they are in a wreck and the insurance totals the vehicle but the amount they pay out is less than what it actually takes the person to replace the car. We often see examples of where the cost of a new engine or a transmission is more than the value of the car. Yes, old cars lose value. The point you were trying to originally make is that after 10 years, an EV is totaled and worthless. It is not. It will still have value and it will still have battery capacity assuming no major wreck. And unlike ICE parts, batteries are getting cheaper.

Also, some companies are making modular batteries instead of the larger ones we saw when EVs first arrived on the scene. Here's a video of the Mach-E configuration, which allows the replacement of individual modules instead of the whole battery pack, like Tesla demands. This option makes battery replacement cheaper. Plus, even if you replace all or part of the battery pack at years 12 or 15 or whatever, you still have all those years of cost savings from ICE fuel and maintenance and future years of the same savings.

 

Im not trying to sell you on anything. You're free to continue driving your manual transmission for as long as you want.

The electric propulsion is not the game changer. Having instant power at any given moment allows the vehicle to essentially be a computer on wheels. Now that self driving is here, there will be a steady adoption for people who will opt for a monthly taxi subscription instead of out right ownership. Of course that will not work for every person on this planet, but there is a significant part of the population who will opt in.

 

It may be almost time for anyone interested in an EV to take the plunge (if you don't mind buying used)... and for me to sell that old GM stock. lol.

800,000 EVs Are About to Hit the Used Market

 

First, what % of EV's that are on the road now, were even purchased >8-10 years ago. Maybe 2%? There is no real data one way or another.
Second, the technology hasn't been static over that time so you can't even compare a 10yo EV to a modern EV.

You guys are debating a theoretical concept.

Furthermore, practically speaking, banking on resale value of a 10yo car is bad financial planning. If someone plans to drive a car for 10+ years, most folks I know say they plan to drive it till it dies. If you get anything for a car that old, consider it a bonus, not a plan.

For me, my 12yo ICE hasn't died yet so I've been waiting but I understand the theoretical benefits.

Plus if I get an EV, I also want solar panels. The cost is damn near a no-brainer as 10 years of gas easily pays for solar panels. But now Trump started a tax war with China and then killed the 30% federal tax credit. So going solar makes less cents now.

 

The stats he tried to use to reinforce his faith were flawed I agree. It isn't so much BANKING on the value of a depreciating asset, but how much will it depreciate and especially compared to how much repair costs will be in case of failure.

There is a reason a Lexus luxury sedan has a much lower chance to be mechanically totaled than a Maserati. The Maserati's powertrain repair cost has a probability to be higher than the value of the repaired vehicle.

Remember the first response was "who drives a car for 10 years". The AVERAGE age of cars on the road right now is 13 years. For the average driver, these financial considerations are extremely important. Debt from auto loans has skyrocketed.

 

Isn't the replacement value, just the value? Your statement is a little nonsensical.

EVs are easier to be mechanically totaled because the REPAIR cost outweighs the repaired car's value. That is what mechanically totaled means.

Not many ICE cars have that issue because the battery pack represents so much higher a percentage of the vehicles value than does a trans or engine.

 

The write offs of the difference between the leased cars residual value and what they are actually worth on the market is going to be insane.

On the positive side if you want an insanely low mile $130K luxury car from Mercedes or Audi for 30K it will soon be your time to shine.

 

Most vehicles do not make it to 250k miles.

Even at 2/3 battery degregation, I could still easily use this as an everyday driver even at 400k miles.

 

You make good points but I think you are making two key assumptions, which may or may not be true.
1: You assume that a 10yo EV will require a new battery. Therefore, you conclude that cost will be greater than the value of the car. But we don't have any data on your assumption. Also, you'd need to do comparison to comparable aged ICEs.

2. You assume the "average age of a vehicle" is 13 years. Fine. But then you conclude the owner of the car must face the choice or repair or junk. However, the flaw in your logic is you assume the original owner has the car at 10 years. But in the US, the average length of time an owner keeps a new car is only 7 years. So statistically, the 2nd (or 3rd) owner has that burden of repair/junk. In that instance, if you are buying a used car, it's on a case-by-case basis and understood to be an as-is sale. So if I am buying a 7yo car, I understand what I'm getting myself into and I don't think that risk is appreciably different than buying a ICE vehicle that was flooded, crashed, or has a bad transmission. It is what it is. So technically your statement is true but buying a 10yo used car, any car, is risky so it isn't a very interesting statement to say any repair for an EV is more expensive than the value of the car. Technically, that MIGHT be true but falls in the category of Meh.