Agree with this mostly, but I don't think the forward vs. point guard distinction is the right one to make. I'd put it differently: Amen's handle is very good for a complimentary player (i.e., a super role player); it is poor for an offensive creator. Amen hasn't shown the dexterity, creativity, or timing to create for himself on the ball in the halfcourt. His control and gathers just aren't there. Even the Deni Avdija style strength based rim-centric 2pt process is unavailable to Amen primarily because his handle is way behind Deni's. To me, that's the extension concern. Amen is a very impactful player - but IMO there is a ceiling to how much a team can pay a guy who doesn't have the skill to be one of your primary halfcourt offensive creators, is a major spacing negative, and isn't an elite defense unto himself (Amen is a great defender, but no wing's d impact is at that level, only C's can be). And that ceiling is maybe ~20% of the cap if you absolutely love the guy, which would be about ~$33M starting salary.
I mostly agree with this, with my main point of disagreement being that I think I see his handle as a little better than you do. I don't think he's that far behind a guy like Avdija. Behind him, yes, but it's not a massive gap. Avdija, of course, is two years' Amen's senior and has three more years' NBA experience at this point; when he was at the same stage of his development as Amen, I think they were very similar as offensive players, albeit Avdija showed somewhat more shooting potential than Amen has so far, and somewhat less rim-finishing capability. The question of how you value future potential is always what makes these judgments difficult about what a young player should be worth on his first big extension. I think I'm also just higher than you are on Amen's potential to improve. I'd pay him the max if it were a choice between that and trading him, unless the trade return was going to be very high-end (at least a value comparable to a top 5 draft pick in the 2026 class). I would try to get him around the number value you stated though, and I think it's very possible that happens given Stone's track record with our other prospects.
somewhat? deni shot around 37% for the past 2 seasons, and 31,8% this season while being a primary option this year. i think deni's current 3pt shot is about amen's ceiling if we are being honest, and i would be my life savings on amen never ever shooting 37% on decent volume.
Well Deni had 99th percentile outlier development between the ages of 23-25. After year 3, Deni was extended for $13M/yr. If we're underwriting an Amen extension to the Deni Avdija age 23-25 offensive development curve... we're in deep trouble.
Well, Amen is an elite defensive player and athlete, and Deni is just pretty good in those categories. I also have an outlier level of belief in Amen's intangibles and ability to improve himself as a player, but I'll readily admit I could be wrong about that. I specifically said at the same stage of development Deni showed somewhat more shooting capability. Specifically, in year 3, Deni shot 29.7% from three on 3.1 attempts per game.
Are you the guy that early in the season told me Eason was just as good as Avdija? Acting like Amen is even in the same galaxy as Amen shooting wise is crazy.
And 29% would be a huge increase for Amen after a regression from 27% on 1.3 attempts to 21% on 1.5 attempts. How is this any kind of comparison? You're dead wrong, they're not similar at that stage of development at all. Deni went 31% 31% 29% Amen went 18% 27% 21% how is that in any universe "similar?" HOMER GLASSES that's how lmao
He averaged 18.3 being the 3rd option this season, obviously he will be over 20+ as the first option, even without marginal improvement on his midrange and corner 3
Deni Avdija year 3, per 100 possessions stats: 16.8 points / 11.7 rebounds / 5.1 assists / 3.0 turnovers / 53.5% true shooting / 29.7% from three Amen Thompson this season, per 100 possessions stats: 24.4 points / 10.4 rebounds / 7.1 assists / 3.2 turnovers / 59.4% true shooting / 21.6% from three If anything, I was being generous to Avdija. Amen Thompson is better than year 3 Avdija in virtually every statistical category except three point shooting and slight edges for Avdija on rebounding and turnovers. And I already said Avdija was better at three point shooting at the same stage of his career.
First team all defense and over 18 ppg in year 3… on a team where he’s 3rd option. I’d say that qualifies.
He's not 1st all defense this season. He wasn't top 5 in DPOY, why are we pretending like he's one of the best in the league right now when he's not? Good? Yes, not great.
Now compare the shot profiles and realise you're evaluating 2 completely different styles of scoring. Compare Amen to the other players with his actual shot profile, most of them are WAY over 60% fg%
you wouldn’t consider Amen one of the best on ball defenders in the league. His footwork and recovery is elite I feel like we are just overly down on our guys because of the loss,
They overly down on him, because they have their egos as internet basketball savants at stake. It is more important for them to be right with their idiotic takes than for Amen to succeed. Just be patience, he is a superstar in the making, but he does need a new coach to set him lose. I think even Stone sees it and will lock him up with a max contract.
He's a very good defender. If he was one of the elite lockdown on ball defenders in the league why did he almost never guard LeBron on ball and instead spent the majority of the series guarding *checks notes* 9ppg averaging Luke Kennard? Riddle me that?
