From 2011 thru 2019, Houston traded for 10 prospects who ended up on Top 100 lists at some point in their minor league career: Singleton, Cosart, Villar, Santana, Martes, Moran, Paulino, Musgrove, Marisnick, Alvarez. Alvarez was the only one who had a major impact on the Astros, although Musgrove and Moran were involved in a major impact trade. During that same time, they drafted 14 prospects who ended up on Top 100 lists: Springer, Correa, McCullers, Appel, Phillips, Bregman, Reed, Tucker, Cameron, Fisher, Whitley, Bukauskas, Pena, Brown. Springer, Correa, Bregman, Tucker, and McCullers were major impact players. That period only had Houston signing 2 prospects from the international signing period who ended up on Top 100 lists: Teoscar Hernandez and Franklin Perez. Perez was involved in a major impact trade. It’s worth noting that there were 3 very key internally developed pieces of the dynasty who were never Top 100 prospects: Jose Altuve, Dallas Keuchel, and Framber Valdez. From 2015-2024, 111 position players played in a game for the Astros, producing 287.775 total fWAR. Just 7 players produced more than 10 fwar in that time, accounting for 68% of the total: Jose Altuve: signed as an international amateur in 2007 Alex Bregman: drafted #2 overall in 2015 Carlos Correa: drafted #1 overall in 2012 George Springer: drafted #11 overall in 2011 Yordan Alvarez: acquired via trade from Dodgers for MLB RP Josh Fields Kyle Tucker: drafted #5 overall in 2015 Yuli Gurriel: signed as a free agent in 2015 Altuve and Alvarez were fluke things you can't really hope to replicate. Gurriel was just a shrewd free agent signing. The others were all taken among the top 11 picks in the draft. On the pitching side, 121 pitchers played in a game for the Astros in that time, producting 188.1944 fwar. The top 17 pitchers accounted for 80% of the production. The top 7 accounted for 53% of the total: Justin Verlander: acquired via trade from Tigers for 3 prospects (Perez, Cameron, Rogers); extended; acquired via trade from Mets for 2 prospects (Gilbert, Clifford); extended Framber Valdez: signed as an international amateur in 2014 Lance McCullers Jr.: drafted #41 overall in 2012 Dallas Keuchel: drafted in the 7th round (#221 overall) in 2009 Gerrit Cole: acquired via trade from Pirates for 4 prospects (Moran, Martin, Feliz, Musgrove) Collin McHugh: claimed off waivers from Rockies in 2013 Ryan Pressly: acquired via trade from Twins for 2 prospects (Celestino, Alcala) Several very shrewd moves that were the result of excellent pro scouting (JV, Cole, McHugh, Pressly). Framber and Keuchel were fluke things you can't really hope to replicate. So to boil down how Houston acquired the bulk of their production for their dynasty: Get 5 draft picks among the top 11 in the draft and hit on 4 of them. Gain a competitive advantage in pro scouting for pitching and exploit it by winning a handful of trades. Turn a handful of no-name prospects into really really good players.
"Singleton, Cosart, Villar, Santana, Martes, Moran, Paulino, Musgrove, Marisnick, Alvarez. Alvarez was the only one who had a major impact on the Astros, although Musgrove and Moran were involved in a major impact trade." That is actually a pretty good haul. They got a Hall of Fame level player in Alvarez Marisnick was playing half time for the Astros for over half a decade in CF and he managed like 11-12 WAR in 5 years... was an important and cheap piece for the Astros. Musgrove turned into Gerritt Cole, who is another Hall of Fame type pitcher. So they got a HOF for a decade (Yordan), a HOF pitcher in his prime for a handful of years (Cole), and an ideal 4th outfielder capable of starting in Marisnick.... signing guys for that type of production on the open market just wasn't/isn't feasible. There are different ways to get there --- but it is pretty clear to me that the end result is that the farm system has to get very good and deep for at least 3-4 years. I don't care too much about commercial rankings outside of the higher end prospects in a farm system.... guys in the top 100 or so, after that player development and internal knowledge is huge.
More analysis: From 2015-2024, the Astros posted 476 total fWAR. Here's how that broke down in terms of how the players were acquired: Highly Drafted Players (players houston drafted in the top 2 rounds; originally controllable seasons only): 121.8 (26%) Players developed internally (lower draft picks, unheralded int'l signees, Rule 5 picks): 120.1 (25%) Free Agents (includes extended players in what would have been their free agent years): 106.4 (22%) Players acquired in Buy-side Trades (e.g., Verlander, Cole): 67.8 (14%) Players acquired in Sell-side Trades (e.g. Yordan, Peacock, Devenski, Stassi, Marisnick): 50.0 (10%) Waiver claims: 10.6 (2%) Big Bonus Int'l signees: -0.7 (0%) From year to year, there was a large variance in how the war was contributed. The Draft accounted for 56% of the production in 2020, but only 18% in 2021. Buy-side trades were 30% of the production in 2019, but only 1% in 2022. Free agents were only 6% of the production in 2016 but 35% in 2022. Player development finds were just 4% of the total war in 2019 but 43% in 2023. The astonishing numbers are that players acquired as part of sell-side trades never accounted for more than 15% of production from 2015-2023, and that not a single big-bonus international amateur signee became a meaningful player for Houston during that run (Yuli Gurriel was categorized as a free agent since he did not sign under the international bonus pool restrictions).
Weren't Javier/Framber/Garcia etc... international amateur signings? They were pretty significant. Teoscar?
And the takeaway from this is that they didn’t essentially get all of those above prospects due to selling off club-controlled, in-prime pitchers and everyday players. You may get ‘more’ volume when you offer up Brown and/or Yordan… but it’s still a crapshoot with a tremendous luck factor. As you said, one HOF player acquired (which was obtained via journeyman relief pitcher, from a trade that wasn’t really a seller-buyer dynamic). Trading Cosart for a prospect/Marisnick would be the equivalent of trading Arrighetti right now.
Yea so many think if you trade studs you will get prospects back that turn into studs It isn’t that easy The biggest two studs we ever received in trades were obtained in deals for Larry Anderson and Josh Fields, not those guys listed We would be fools to trade Yordan
I keep reading how great Brown is at evaluating young talent, yet we have 4 players on our MLB roster who have no business in the big leagues and absolutely no one who could come up in their place and even be competitive
I am more and more convinced that Brown is good at evaluating how tools may develop and whether that may turn a young guy into a real player. There was never any chance that Harris, Shewmake, or Johnson would be any good. Finding injury replacements for the MLB roster is completely different that finding and developing the future of the team. You KNOW those guys won't be good but expect them to not be bad. The point is they are bandaids to allow you to stay the course and not mess up the actual prospect plan by rushing them. I am very excited about this organization below AA level and that's all Brown.
Looks like Luhnow really got his money's worth with the international signings. An org that was ahead of the curve.
We need to hit on some of these young pitchers and either use them as trade bait or keep them. The way we did a dynasty is different than how the dodgers or yankees do it too . I think we also need to develop top tier 2b and SS over the next couple of seasons We won't be able to pay pena , we probably won't be able to pay paredes in the long run , Correa will be full time 3b. Jose will play less and less . The easiest thing that could happen to make us contenders the next couple of seasons is for Matthews and Smith to become star level players , but I'm sure that been said a bunch. They are looking like OK bets . Also we need to develop our catcher of the future asap.janek please step up . With the abs , it is more about calling a game and controlling the running game than pitch framing . If we take the dynasty and winning to mean stacking war , you can afford to flexible positionally , but at the end of the day you inflexibly need top tier pitching . But the positional value is not irrelevant to WAR and so it shouldn't be irrelevant to thinking about how to build a dynasty. However , the whole picture is different for us because we are going to bookmark a spot for altuve to get to HOF milestone . This is not like the first time when we are starting fresh and making any move just to win. It's a good question .. what does it take to build a dynasty, but as the OP himself notes , your starting position matters too . As does the landscape of the league I might add . The obvious practical question is what do the astros need to do to retrofit and retool this now constrained team so that it can continue to contend at a high level thus continuing the dynasty. I think the answer is to land your next pena /Correa and invest more than you have been at Catcher . If you can get a top5 MLB catcher that's such a huge comparative advantage most of the time. We also need an influx of arm talent . But , we are maxxing that as well as we can .
I don’t think this comment will age well. Matthews has been awesome on the road and has the tools. Smith is already one of the best defensive outfielders in MLB and his bat speed is elite. He also has great plate discipline. He has one flaw that they are working on. Dana was handed an empty minor league system without immediate relief from a draft pick perspective and an aging roster. Changing out GM’s every few years, especiially when your team has had record number of injuries seems pretty knee jerk to me. You can probably compare any GM in the league to Luhow and come up short. We need to get over it. The league kicked him out and he ain’t coming back.
Age 23: Cam Smith: wRC+ 90 in MLB George Springer: in AA Jose Altuve: wRC+ 84 in MLB, 0.5 fwar Carlos Correa: wRC+ 101 in MLB, 3.7 fwar Alex Bregman: wRC+ 123 in MLB, 4.7 fwar Kyle Tucker: wRC+ 122 in MLB, 1.8 fwar Yordan Alvarez: missed season with injury So Cam is ahead of where Springer and Altuve were at the same age, basically as good as Correa was, and isn’t as good as Bregman or Tucker (yet). Matthews is only 24. But he has a big swing and miss issue and is likely to be a very streaky up and down player, the question is whether he will oscillate between decent player and super star or between scrub and decent player.
Hope you're right and I know Luhnow isn't coming back. I'm hoping one of his underlings can get the Stros back to being a cutting edge org. Starting with replacing Espada.
How do you destroy a dynasty seems more relevant. It unraveled when we could have positioned ourselves for a permanent place among the elite franchises and shaped baseball history for the next century.
