Exactly- and while I question Brown’s ability to run an entire organization as well as someone like Luhnow or Hart, I don’t question his ability to identify young talent, especially at the lower levels. It is one of the things he has a strong track record doing. Also- the rules have changed some, certain compensatory picks can be moved, as well as international signing allowances…. The Astros can get creative and use those avenues to improve their chances in a rebuild by trade. That doesn’t even include taking some of the payroll savings and spending it on scouting and player development like the Orioles did.
You really put Yordan on there? You really want to describe how much of a crap shoot it really is without saying it’s a crap shoot? (Plus nobody was “selling’ there). Yes, let’s trade Teng for a stud prospect. Let’s trade Bryan Abreu for a total flyer that may turn out to be good. That’s how much unknowns there will persist. I just don’t see the selling trades of players with 2-3 years more of control for mid-market teams jump starting much… unless the owner just doesn’t want to pay their above average (but still very affordable) salaries. Peña, with only 2 years left (one being a likely lockout) and possibly already “peaked” would be the most tradeable right now. I wouldn’t move Brown and Yordan as it’s still unlikely that you’d ever get full value for what they’re worth compared to their contracts. I’m also very leery of the GM’s who know their prospects better than anybody… basically another Luhnow reference where he made two tons of prospects for pitcher deals that featured 0 all-star appearances by the 8 or 9 total prospects traded. The Tigers and Dbacks didn’t really jumpstart anything after those trades.
I just asked what were the players the Astros got the last time they did this. They didn’t even stumble upon an upside player by accident. Sure, Brown may be able to target somebody… but the real prizes are the low A or barely AA guys that can morph into the true mega-stud type guys that you’re forgoing another 3 years on (not Peña). The real smart GM’s can get projects or undervalued players for veterans or relief pitchers. It’s really hard to get true protectable value for studs (let alone studs who are either on very team-friendly deals or still well within arbitration). Also, the really smart GM’s know their prospects better than anybody… Mookie Betts deals happen more often than Juan Soto deals. Peña’s value will need to rebound some before you get a team to bend over.
Michael Bourn's name doesn't have an "E" on the end. Never understood why they traded him for the crap they did when they did it.
Right, but it is apples to oranges... you had different era's, different player values and different people making the call on whom to get or not get in a trade. I just don't think it has much relevance. Brown's strength in his career has been the draft and very young players, so I would not be concerned with him targeting players in A or even in international players. Really smart GM's make mistakes or trade away very good young players too when they are trying to win a title. Epstein did it in Boston and Chicago. Dombrowski has done it a number of times. It happens. Even Luhnow did it a couple of times. Pena doesn't have the value of Soto or Betts obviously, but he still has a lot of value because of his position, past performance and contract. There are teams that would give up very good prospects for him. It is also very possible that the actual long term return from Pena will end up not being great, but may be fabulous for Paredes or someone else... so much goes into it. I really do believe a lot of this comes down to how confident you are in Dana Brown to identify young players. I personally think that is his wheelhouse. I would be comfortable with him making those decisions..... but what do I know really?
If you can’t get a Josh Hader for Paredes (probabiy equivalent value to what Carlos Gomez had) or a Teoscar Hernandez for Okert (Francisco Liriano) or a Wilyer Abreu for a Christian Vazquez…it can be done.
If I remember right, Ed Wade traded him because he wanted to inject some pitching depth into the system. They got several pitchers from the Braves.
Right, 3 pitchers and Jordan Schaeffer (sp?). Clement, somebody, and somebody. Unfortunately the pitchers and the OF all sucked.
Not that it changes you point, but I was surprised to see that Brett Oberholtzer put up 3.4 fwar over 205.1ip from 2013-2014 for Houston.
lol 2.8-3.0 of that probably came in 2013 when he was actually... pretty good in his half-season with the MLB club? And he threw a complete game shutout that season????
Brett had a lot of maturity issues. He is out of baseball and has recently been a car salesman and now a realtor. Most people that were around him felt he had the talent to be a long term big leaguer but really did not have the personality.
You will always be more dissapointed by the prospects that you are admittedly biased towards and always have more excitement for… It’s a hard game. Its even harder for those trying to make business/team decisions and predict future performances of 18-20 year olds based on all the metrics in the world (that don’t always account for maturity, IQ, personalities, etc.). I do see more examples of these “kids” being fairly burned out by all things baseball given that it’s become a year-round sport starting at age 5-6 in some instances. We can blame PG or select teams or everybody knowing about analytics now or baseball still being the sport where you don’t need to run a fast 40 time or be 300 lbs or be 7 feet tall to find success…. But the young up/coming prospect of today has a lot more “miles” on them vs. the prospect from 30 years ago. Maybe just a small microcosm of why there seems to be more injuries now-a-days vs. previous eras.
He doesn't live in Houston, lives in the South Eastern part of the country. I will check my Facebook... he had sent me a few messages in the last month or so.
Wow... he moved again? I want to say he was in like South Carolina about a year ago or so. He has tried his hand at doing a lot of different things. He was selling used cars not that long ago. He has always been very cool when I have spoken to him over the last few years. He is very appreciative of people that remember he pitched in the big leagues. He has some really good stories too.
Or you could get filler for a guy like Justin Verlander with control (who ends up winning 2 more CYA's and 2 WS's) or filler for Zack Grienke with control. Its a crapshoot. Yes, the talent evaluators or buyers on both sides matter. Terrible luck involved as well.
