Just 13 prospects from the 2015 Astros opening day farm system ending up meaningfully contributing to Houston's World Series teams: 7 guys went on to be actual good players for the Astros: Carlos Correa Framber Valdez (DSL in 2015) Lance McCullers Jr. Cristian Javier (DSL in 2015) Bryan Abreu (DSL in 2015) Jose Urquidy (DSL in 2015) Derek Fisher (including him because he scored a run in the WS Another 6 guys went on to be traded for guys who went on to be actual good players for the Astros: Joe Musgrove: Gerrit Cole Colin Moran: Gerrit Cole Michael Feliz: Gerrit Cole Jorge Alcala: Ryan Pressly Jason Martin: Gerrit Cole Albert Abreu: Brian McCann
I looked at club-controlled fWAR at a snapshot in time. Your list is better, but it is not a snapshot, looks at total fWAR, adds the drafts, does not discount promotions, and does not account for trades. I'd guess 80% of the difference in your number, and my number is the 2015 draft, non-club-controlled fWAR in guys on my list, and guys I didn't still consider prospects (e.g., Villar, Grossman). If the same methodology is applied to the 2015 Astros as to other teams, odds are good the 2015 Astros Farm is better than the other farm. I don't like how you use "just". I get excluding Correa as he was specifically called out in the part of the post I was originally posting about. Bregman and Tucker were drafted in 2015. If you want to exclude them, exclude the entire 2015 draft of every team. Using your methodology, the 2015 Astros minus Correa is 271.4 fWAR. That is still way above average based on your methodology. Is that still the top team? If you took out "just" the entire 2015 draft (not just Astros picks), Correa, Musgrove, Valdez, Laureano, and Teoscar, the Astros drop to 131 fWAR, but the average MLB fWAR probably drops to about 125 fWAR or less
I’ll revise my thesis such: The Astros projected 2027 farm should be able to match the direct production of the opening day 2015 farm, except for Carlos Correa and Framber Valdez. The Astros projected 2027 opening day big league roster (minus Hunter Brown and Jeremy Pena) should be able to match the surplus value produced by the 2015 opening day big league roster, except for George Springer. The Astros 2027 draft should be able to match the Astros 2015 draft, except for Alex Bregman (assuming Houston picks between 3rd and 8th in the 2027 draft). From those 3 points, if Houston can trade Hunter Brown and Jeremy Pena (or convert some other unmentioned asset) for value equivalent to 2015 George Springer, 2015 Carlos Correa, 2015 Framber Valdez, and 2015 Alex Bregman, their 2027 organizational surplus value will roughly match what they had in 2015, setting a reasonable expectation that a new window will be open. That last point is unlikely to happen, so Houston is probably looking at having to tank the 2027 season to get another very high draft pick (and sell more players for prospects), OR spend their way back to contention.
Who's the 2015 Altuve and 2015 Keuchel in these mythical rosters? We've already admitted no Springer. Hell, who's the 2015 Chris Carter, lol. As flawed as he was, at least you knew what you were getting. As opposed to the Diaz version.
There's no Jose Altuve, but there are enough other assets on the 2027 side that eclipse their 2015 counterpart that it comes out even (except for where noted on Correa, Bregman, and Springer). See my 2nd and 3rd comments in the thread.
Not sure I'm seeing the "aggregate" replacement of 2015 Altuve though. Do they have a 200 innings/year Cy young award winning pitcher though? (does anybody?) Even in the aggregate? Given the largely veteran core, we probably should be comparing this team to the 2000 disaster Astros, and what they needed to rebound in 2001. (featured ROY/MVP candidate Berkman, Oswalt call-up, Wagner returning from injury). Not sure 2027 has that sort of impact on the cusp or returning... but Cam Smith taking a leap, any pitcher (Spencer, or otherwise) turning into a horse, and some unknown failed starting pitcher finding a new gear in the bullpen would help. 2001 also still had a relatively prime Bagwell (Yordan #'s) and an aging but still able to hit some Biggio (probably what Altuve is now). 2015 was also a culmination, not a rebound or out of nowhere development. Hinch and Stromm being 1 year in also helped a lot towards that.
That's a good call on 2027 being a doppleganger for 2001 after 2026 was a match for 2000. That makes a lot of sense and is plausible. None of it matters though as apparently we will never stay healhty (relative to normal expectations- the league).
Like all things - it depends on what you get for Brown and Pena. It isn't going to completely rebuild a farm system, but it can be a good start to the process. It comes down to how good Brown is at talent evaluation and some luck. Both of those guys are huge trade chips compared to a team devoid of talent deciding to rebuild. Ultimately though -- you have to have very good people making decisions on which players to draft, and good astute teachers in the system.
The Astros 2015 opening day roster had just 3 players coming off of 2014 seasons with 3+ fwar: Altuve, Keuchel, and McHugh. Those 3 players replicated that success in 2015 and were joined by Correa and Springer as players posting 3+ war. This whole exercise had reinforced an idea that I already had, and that is that the bulk of production comes from just a handful of players. If Neyens and Alvarez blossom into hall of famers, Houston is set pretty much regardless of what other value they get out of their current farm.
Touche! I'm guessing the OD 2027 Farm does not match the direct production of the OD 2015 Farm minus Correa. I expect the Astros to make trades in the future. Your revised statement has a chance. Let's touchbase on this in 5 or 6 years and see how the early returns are looking. I don't see OD 2027 roster match 2015 OD roster in surplus value even minus George. Altuve had 3 great years on peanuts. Keuchel, Marisnick, and McHugh also were huge surplus value. 2027 may end up more than 2015 minus, but Tucker, Straw, Sandoval, and Thornton likely produce either more club-controlled fWAR or total than 2027 draft. Odds are about 50% the 1st pick produces over 10 fWAR. Miss on the 1st pick and it is most likely over for the 2027 draft. On...Hunter Brown and Jeremy Pena (or convert some other unmentioned asset) for value equivalent to 2015 George Springer, 2015 Carlos Correa, 2015 Framber Valdez, and 2015 Alex Bregman...that's not going to happen even if everything else ends up in your favor.
Maybe? He already agreed to one rebuild and reaped basically ten years of glory and profit out of it. I don't think Crane would ever eat "all" of a contract, but I could see him eating part of it if he likes the haul of prospects he gets back. I won't pretend to know what Crane is thinking, but his claims he will never rebuild again don't mean much.... the Rockets owner said the same thing, and at one point so did the Texans late owner.... and both did rebuild. There are some owners like Les Alexander or Jerry Jones, but most will ultimately rebuild when it clearly benefits their team.
Can you name all the players they got the last time they did this: Pence Bourne Oswalt Berkman Lee Lidge Brown and Yordan have far more value than any of the above. Pena more on par with the top two. The ones that have too much value its almost impossible to get commensurate value. Also if the Astros are planning on contending at any point in the next 3-5 years, having Yordan and Brown will accelerate that moreso than the sort of high level prospects they should/would/could be targeting (lower to AA guys with major promise…. And not the smorgasboard of AAAA guys, and Jon Singleton, they got for the above players). The 2009-2013 Astros also did not have either a CYA candidate or a bonafied “in prime” MVP player on their rosters to dump. The Astros can look at the Giants (post 3x WS champions) or the Cardinals (post Luhnow) as either a model to try and emulate… or a model to veer entirely away from.
You can rebuild with trades if you’re lucky/good. Guys who teams acquired as prospects as part of sell-side trades: Trea Turner Fernando Tatis Dansby Swanson Marcus Semien Yordan Alvarez Willy Adames Yandy Diaz Isaac Paredes William Contreras Randy Arozarena Gleyber Torres Josh Naylor CJ Abrams Gabriel Moreno That’s 14 of the top 90 position players in fwar since 2023. Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, Tyler Glasnow, Zac Gallen, Freddy Peralta, and Cole Ragans were all traded as prospects. It can pay off, you just have to know who to target.
I don’t agree that Peña’s value is similar to anyone on that list. In fact none of those players traded have remotely close to the value of Brown, Alvarez or Pena. A lot of it comes down to how confident you are in the front office to identify which prospects to get. I am fairly confident in Brown’s ability to do that. Also no- Brown, Yordan and Pena would not be more likely to help the Astros contend in 3-5 years. Brown and Pena will not be under contract in 3 years and neither would Alvarez. To keep all 3 on extensions would be very expensive and not only limit spending but also limit the amount of controllable cheap assets the Astros would have. That doesn’t even get into the Astros picking lower in the draft than they would in a rebuild. Whatever course Crane decides to take, he needs to be definitive about. If he is serious about not rebuilding, then he needs to increase the payroll to higher than ever before. If he isn’t willing to do that and is going to rebuild, he needs to maximize his return on diminishing assets. I can point to lots of trades made by rebuilding teams that were duds - but I can also point to others that were beneficial.
