Draft lottery reform: League likely to expand lottery, flatten odds for bottom 10 teams

I agree with you, they completely lost the plot. Teams "strategically tanking" when their stat is injured or when they can get their pick back through protections is the only relatively new development.

This rule would make both of those situations easier and simultaneously hurt teams legitimately going through a home grown rebuild.

I guess this could be beneficial to a team with a high volume of mediocre picks

 

Have they even consulted some analytical minds to evaluate all these band aid anti-tank ideas?

 

The NBA has disclosed to its 30 general managers a new anti-tanking, draft reform termed the "3-2-1 lottery" that includes expanding the lottery to 16 teams, flattened odds and a relegation zone where the bottom three teams will be penalized with fewer lottery balls for the No. 1 pick, starting with the 2027 draft, sources told ESPN on Tuesday.

The "3-2-1 lottery" proposal, named to represent the number of lottery balls per team, would expand the lottery from 14 to 16 teams. Teams that do not qualify for the playoffs or play-in tournament but stay out of the relegation zone (spots four through 10) would receive three lottery balls each. Teams with a bottom-three record -- the relegation area -- would have just two lottery balls but have a floor of the 12th pick while the rest of the 13 lottery teams could fall as far as the 16th pick.

The 9th and 10th play-in seeds in each conference receive two lottery balls each while the losers of the 7-8 play-in games receive one lottery ball each.

In addition, no team would be able to win the top pick in consecutive years or be able to win three consecutive top-five picks. Teams also would not be able to protect picks in the 12 to 15 slots going forward.

The proposal includes a sunset provision so that the new system would expire following the 2029 draft, and allow the board of governors to continue the system or transition to a new one. The NBA's current collective bargaining agreement runs through the 2029-2030 season.

The league would also have expanded disciplinary authority to regulate tanking and have the option to reduce teams' lottery odds and/or modify teams' draft positions under the proposal.
___________

NBA commissioner Adam Silver said on a recent Competition Committee call, according to sources: "We should have a system where you should hate to lose. It shouldn't be a badge of honor. Losing should be uncomfortable."

The new change is not as drastic as relegation to a lower league -- but a penalty for being at the bottom.

Many league executives understand this may be an overcorrection, but one the majority believes is necessary.

 

mediocrity is only seen as bad because you are accustomed to the current assbackwards system where teams are afraid to improve even marginally because it would affect their odds of getting a better pick

 

Maybe the Wizards shouldn't trade/bench all their players and try to tank.

And if those mid-tier draft picks are potentially more valuable, maybe teams will stop trading them away all the time.

I don't know if this is good for the system or not in that actual bad teams may get stuck being bad, but it would certainly stop teams from trying to be bad all the time. On the flipside, it makes it more possible to go from mediocre to good, though it relies on the luck of the lottery balls.

 

I actually sat down and devised my own lottery reform a few months ago when this first became a hot topic. After multiple days of evaluating, stress testing, refining, and running long-term simulations, here's what I came up with:

===============================================================================

Season Score (Base Ranking Metric)

Composite score derived from:

• Win/Loss Record — 60% weight
  • Worse record = better lottery position
• Point Differential — 30% weight
  • More positive = better
• Longest Losing Streak — 10% weight
  • Shorter = better

Philosophically:

• You reward bad teams,
• But you discourage blatant tanking (because positive differential and avoiding long streaks help).

Drought Multiplier (Carryover Multiplier)

• Starts at 1.0x
• If a team:
  • Misses playoffs AND does not get a Top 3 pick → INCREASES by 0.1x
  • Makes playoffs → DECREASES by 0.1x
  • Gets Top 3 pick → RESETS to 1.0x
• Floor: 1.0x
• Ceiling: 1.5x

Final Lottery Value = Season Score × Drought Multiplier

Teams are then sorted 1–14 based on "Final Lottery Value" and assigned preset odds.

================================================================================

What This System Does Well

1. Reduces tank incentives

• Teams can’t just lose by 30 every night.
• Long losing streaks hurt them.
• Competitive bad teams get rewarded more than chaotic bad teams.

2. Soft lottery flattening

• The Drought Multiplier creates upward mobility for chronically unlucky teams.
• Caps at 1.5x prevents runaway distortion.

3. Built-in correction mechanism

• Truly stuck franchises rise gradually.
• Successful rebuilds decay naturally.

This is essentially:

• 60% merit-based
• 40% behavior-corrected
• With a rolling equity stabilizer

It balances:

• Anti-tanking
• Competitive integrity
• Long-term fairness

================================================================================

Hypothetical 10 Season Simulation

Assume five recurring lottery teams:

• Team A – Truly terrible, worst record most years
• Team B – Bad but competitive (close losses, decent differential)
• Team C – Mediocre treadmill team
• Team D – Tank-heavy strategy (long losing streaks, bad differential)
• Team E – Rebuilding smartly, improves over time

All start with:

• Season Score based on performance
• Drought Multiplier = 1.0x

What likely happens:

1. No team goes more than 4–5 years without a Top 3 pick.
2. Truly awful teams still have advantage.
3. Chronic unlucky teams are eventually boosted.
4. Perma-mediocre teams occasionally spike upward.

This system creates:

• Less desperation tanking
• Fewer generationally cursed franchises
• More gradual rebuild cycles
• More strategic front office behavior

It’s closer to a dynamic equilibrium model than a pure lottery.

================================================================================

Key Takeaways

1. Drought Multiplier Cap Works: 1.5x prevents runaway advantage but preserves fairness
2. Reset Rule Protects Success: Teams that win multiple Top 3 picks don’t accumulate leverage
3. Oscillation Dampens Advantage: Teams that bounce in/out of playoffs gain only minor benefit
4. Randomness Retained: Even with multipliers, actual lottery results retain uncertainty
5. Behavioral Incentives: Teams are encouraged to improve performance and compete even when bad

 

Uhh, if you trade your top-3 protected pick, tanking harder just means it's less likely to be top 3 and you're more likely to lose it.

 

Just do a mini tournament for the Top 4.....I think there were ideas floating around during the Bubble.

Give an incentive to the worst 2 teams like free Coaching Challenges.....to make it more competitive.

 

Sorry, but I like the change. There will now be reverse-tanking to avoid finishing in the bottom 3 and I think that is great. Teams can no longer follow the Danny Ainge model of repeatedly playing hard the first 20-25 games with poor results, then choosing to trash the last 2/3s of the season with uncompetitive basketball. The formula is also good because it is uncomplicated.

That all said, it may take 2-3 years to fully gauge the upsides and any downsides.

 

This rule would have benefited Moreys Rockets during the Kmart years. Not good enough for playoffs and not bad enough for a lottery pick.

 

I sat here and read his tweet 5x trying to figure out how it made sense. I am 95% sure it doesn't, lol.

 

Havent heard anyone discuss it but I still think the "you're the worst" draft idea is actually pretty good. (Teams don't own their own pick, teams get the right to index to another teams record)

https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/draft-lotto-reform-youre-the-worst-draft.265637/

 

Agreed. Being terrible is no longer rewarded. But still if you aren't a top team you still have more chances for inproving through the draft. And it is simple.

The more I think about it the more I like it.

 

It’s funny how outraged people are about tanking, yet the Spurs are universally praised as a model franchise. Without tanking, they don’t get Duncan or Wemby. “Oh, it’s about how well they built teams AROUND Duncan and Wemby!” Yeah, let’s see how well you build championship teams around Keith Van Horn and Scoot Henderson.

If you want to punish tanking, start with the Spurs by sending Wemby to a Seattle or Las Vegas expansion team.

 

Problem is 80% of the draft picks are not owned by the original team. How do you address that?

 

Don't talk to this guy.