Obviously hindsight is 20-20 I think I would rather have Dubon than Allen, Johnson, Harris, and Shewmake, because I think those guys are just AAAA JAGS and don't have any upside left. But I think Whitcomb actually has a Jason Lane-type short peak that he can still get to. But if it was my choice, I would still trade Dubon for the salary relief in hopes I could improve the roster somewhere else.
Absolutely. Dubon is a luxury for a good team to be able to bulletproof themselves from injuries (well, at least against a handful of bullets). But the Astros didn't have that luxury, so its understandable in the end.
I just think we are about 3 - 4 weeks away from having solid starting pitching, and with our offense we can turn it around. 1.Brown- elite pitcher 2. Arrighetti - Very good 3. Imai - Should be good 4. Lambert - great stuff - nice number 4 5. McCullers/Javier or AAA someone - just need a sub 5.00 ERA here. If we can get 3 starters with good records, the 4th with an above .500....and the fifth close to .500 we should be good. DD
Hurt (please come back soon) Maybe hope Homesick candyass AAAA AAAA AAAA...and AAAA It's a great plan, DD, it's a a swiss ****ing watch.
It’s kind of crazy, if you take out the W/L record of 4 guys (Burrows, McCullers. Abreu, and Weiss) who are a combined 2-9, the Astros are .500. Burrows and McCullers have had bad luck; their walks have punished them more than they normally would have. Abreu has been broken. Astros era is still a full run higher than their xFIP.
Yeah, you are right @Buck Turgidson everything has to work out just right. Let's hope that Imai finds a good Sushi joint soon. DD
I have wondered if pitchers who throw 4S at the top of the zone were getting calls they shouldn’t have. Seems like the reaction might be to abandon that strategy (and also target hitting prospects with elite plate discipline).
This would imply that after all the years of people complaining about the umps, it was all lopsided in favor of the Astros all that time.
I think you sign and develop pitchers for certain parameters and when those parameters change, their skills may not translate or they have to adjust. I think McCullers may be hurt quite a bit because he threw a lot of stuff off the plate and it's harder to throw that slider and knuckle curve in the zone. I think batters will lay off of it to see if he can throw strikes. Javier's fastball was most effective right above the zone and now he it's not that close to the strike zone
As bad as Houston's record is, they still project to be a really good team. Per Fangraphs, they project to end up with 31.4 fwar from position players and 15.1 from pitchers. That 46.5 fwar is well into the standard range for legit contenders. Their projection does rely on Hunter Brown, Jeremy Pena, and Josh Hader coming back healthy on time (projecting a combined 9 fwar for the season for those 3 players). It also is bullish on Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert, Bryan King, and Tatsuya Imai. But back of the envelope, fangraphs paints this as an 89-99 win team depending on luck.
No. For the most part, the Astros players are not the same or are not of the same ability as the past. Some years have favored Astros. Some haven't. Statcast data shows the Astros pitchers lost about 7 runs from 2017 through 2025 according to FanGraphs. Though I should say this is mostly that the Astros catchers are not quite as good at tricking the umpires as other teams' catchers. This isn't about the umps having it in against the Astros.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-the-struggling-astros-turn-their-season-around/ Decent article about how bleak Houston’s situation is. My post from earlier today referenced how bullish FGDC projections are on Houston’s roster in terms of fwar. This article references ZIPS projections and how they fit into W/L records and playoff %. Bottom line, Houston has put themselves into a huge hole and their pitching has been historically awful. Fans should feel optimistic about the team not being as bad in future months as they’ve been in April, but nobody should reasonably expect Houston to make the playoffs. When you factor in the age, health, and contract status of Houston’s best players, the next 90 days will be among the most exciting/precarious in the last 10 years. For now I think Houston should just let it play out. If they’re >5 games out of the division by 7/15, Fire Espada, trade their rentals (Okert, Abreu, De Los Santos, Vazquez), and make their best unrestricted assets (Pena, Brown, Paredes, maybe Meyers if he’s healthy) available for a high price. If they are somehow miraculously in the mix by mid-July, assess the roster and trade for enough to make a legitimate push for the playoffs (likely meaning adding a ToR SP and a leverage RP).
If Imai gets his **** together and Brown and he get/stay healthy the Astros could theoretically have a solid rotation. Pen will likely continue to be a cesspit however.
That's true, but much of the bullpen is the same as last year, and suddenly they are routinely walking the bases loaded too.
It's wild just how bad the AL has been to start the season. We have the worst record in the league and we're only 4.5 out of first and only 3.5 out of a wild card spot. We aren't remotely out of anything. However I simply don't think this is a good team. The recent performance of Lambert and Arrighetti give at least some hope, but this team needs a whole lot of yes answers to question marks. The path to being good looks very narrow to me, but not impossible.
It amazes me that with the Stros 3 best pitchers hurt (Thanks Joe) terrible managing and their stud SS out that the Stros are only 3.5 games out of a WC spot. I cant believe some posters are already wanting to give up on this season abd trade off parts. If they're within 5 games of a playoff berth in July I would hope they could get everybody healthy and add parts for a playoff run.
