I am honestly not that keen on extending Smith or Pena or Brown based on the contracts that have been given out recently. I’m just not sure giving $180M+/8yrs+ to a guy like Smith who hasn’t even put up a full star level season is a good value for a franchise like Houston. And Pena and Brown are going to be looking for even more since they’re established stars. Houston needs to focus on improving their farm system to open a new window. I think it makes more sense to trade Brown and Pena than to extend them. And I think the time to extend Smith was last spring.
I understand and agree that extensions need to be a balance of early enough to get a good value and late enough that the player is established. And the farm system and aggressive trading of good players in their final 1-1 1/2 yrs of control if unable/unwilling to extend them should be the primary source of talent for the roster. That said, this philosophy will completely take away a major avenue for getting/having star players in their prime. I think players who, before their mid-20s, show a high likelihood of becoming a star and have little to no bust risk due to plus tools across the board must be extended if possible. These are the players who this philosophy won't allow to be on the roster when they are 28-32 years old otherwise. Unless you have multiple "can't miss" prospects who should replace him rather than compliment him, this type of player should be extended. He's Kyle Tucker 6 years ago but with a better motor and more outgoing.
Yeah - buying out 2-3 years of free agency at $40-50MM/yr or whatever those deals work out to seems like an awful investment, given that (1) you have no idea if he'll be any good by then and (2) you have no idea what the team's needs will be at that point. The odds that he's worth anything more than what you're giving him is really low. The idea of those extensions was to trade security for value, but at those prices, the players is getting security and fair market value while the team doesn't really gain anything. The only reason to do is if you think the new CBA will lead to rising salaries/etc.
To what end though? I think now is exactly the time to extend Cam before he really prices himself out of an extension. I don't think Houston will have the balls to do an pre-MLB extension like other teams are doing. They needed to see him have success at the ML level before thinking about committing and I get that. They absolutely waited too long on Pena/Brown. Not sure if that's more on Crane or DB.
Of course Fangraphs has something to say on early extensions: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-extensions-go-too-far/
My conspiracy theory is that teams are overpaying on some of these extensions in advance of CBA negotiations in order to give some of these young players more to lose if the 2027 season is lost and to reduce their desire to fight a salary cap (since they’ve already gotten their money).
I would think the opposite. If I have an 8-yr $180MM deal secured, I'm way less concerned about losing a season. If I have no guaranteed money and need an opportunity to earn a future contract, I really want to play. Also not sure there are enough of them to really move the needle in the grand scheme of things.
The problem, IMO, is that extensions should happen, but limited. And players look at other extensions which have been terrible ( also IMO) If a player is not willing to agree to a reasonable extension because the rest of the league is giving unreasonable extensions, then there is no extensions. Maybe the CBA changes make unreasonable extensions more reasonable? Tough gamble.
For Griffin and McConigle 2027 went from being worth <$1M to being worth several million. They also now will not be reaching free agency during the next CBA. You might be right in that it’s not enough to move the needle. But those particular players are likely less wiling to lose out on 2027 than they were before they signed their extensions.
But now they know they are set for life. Sure, they might only make $170MM instead of $180M if they lose the 2027 season. But the alternative was not having any money at all and not knowing what the future holds. That's the scenario where they needed a job to pay their bills. Now they can borrow against future earnings to fund their 2027 lifestyles without baseball or money being a concern at all.
Cam still has his launch angles issues. One of the lowest average launch angles in the majors. He's trying to hit through the infield instead of over the infield.
Cam has elite bat speed. He just doesn't lift the ball at all. I would think that someone would work with him on his swing path because he would have MVP votes if he figured it out. If Cole or Brice could make contact like Cam, they would be all-stars.
Just an add-on to this, a lot of minor leaguers sign policies with private firms (unless this isn't a thing anymore) that pool their earnings with 10-30 other minor leaguers. When one of these guys is the 1st or 2nd to make the majors, getting their pre-arb MLB salary split 10-30 ways isn't that fun even though these guys typically get a larger percentage of their own salaries. Also, maxing out their contracts long-term usually isn't as big a deal for these guys, as they only get a piece of the long-term deal. There isn't that much on these 3rd party policies, but I expect some of the early extensions involve guys who have signed one of these deals in the minors.
Because you are running out of time. Its fine if you think extensions are too expensive and/or too much of a commitment. But if you do want to try to extend players it must be done before they prove themselves. Once they have its too late. Extensions are done based on potential. Owners need to trust their scouting/development and gamble or else they don't happen.
