knowing Crane, he wants a bona fide ace as the number 2. If it isn’t Imai or Lance, he will trade for him.
I’m not comfortable with anyone being a true #2 in a playoff series from the roster. #1, #3 & #4 starters and the pen are deep with excellent options. It’s a little more urgent to me than a LH OF but adding that as well and having the depth from injury is a nice luxury. I like this playoff staff…. Brown, #2 Starter, McCullers & the best one of Imai, Burrows, Javier, Arrighetti Hader, Abreu, Okert, Sousa. King, Blubaugh, Weiss, Teng & then the best starter going (#5 reg season starter)
Kicking off the soft rebuild: Astros get: IF/OF Jett Williams 3B Andrew Fischer Brewers get: 3B Isaac Paredes Astros get: SS Angel Genoa 1B/OF Ralphy Velasquez OF Jace LaViolette Astros get: SS Steele Hall Reds get: SP Tatsuya Imai RP Steven Okert This haul combined with the 2026 draft and development of their existing prospects would give Houston one of the top 5 best farms in baseball. Projected 2027 roster: 2B Altuve RF Smith DH Alvarez SS Correa 1B Walker LF Seiya Suzuki* 3B Alec Bohm* C Diaz CF Meyers Bench: Matthews, Loperfido, Jake Rogers*, Allen SP: Brown, Kris Bubic*, Tatsuya Imai*, Burrows, Arrighetti, Blanco RP: Hader, King, Sousa, Teng, Bolton, Blubaugh, Ullola *free agent signings
Nowhere near enough. Houston’s best prospects have universally stumbled out of the gate so I’m not even sure which prospect teams would consider in exchange for a star player. Arrighetti is the only guy I see right now that teams might be willing to assign good value to.
Agree I changed the last pitcher to Pecko but also thought about it and acknowledged. The Astros really need a horse who CAN average 6+ innings and can be counted on to get into the 6th regularly. ( sounds a lot like Framber Valdez) I really don't want another season of gutting the top of the farm system but those guys are not cheap. It probably costs Alvarez or Neyens, possibly both. If several of Imai, Arrighetti, Burrows, Lance, Abreu, Hader, Sousa, Okert, King, Blubaugh, Teng, and/or Weiss haven't put up good numbers by June then this team probably needs to give up on 2026 and start trading Abreu, Vasquez, Okert, and De Los Santos along with possibly Imai, Pena, Paredes, Meyers and others. A week ago we were on cloud 9. Baseball.
The rebuild begins (assuming the Astros don’t rebound but their hurt players come back healthy): Yankees get: SS Jeremy Pena Astros get: SS Dax Kilby P Elmer Rodriguez P Brendan Beck Cubs get: DH Yordan Alvarez Astros get: P Jaxon Wiggins OF Ethan Conrad IF Jefferson Rojas OF Josiah Hartshorn IF James Triantos Dodgers get: P Hunter Brown Astros get: OF Josue De Paula OF Zyhir Hope IF Emil Morales P River Ryan Astros would have by far the best farm system in the league. They’d likely also dump Walkers contract. 2027 would be another down year but Houston would enter 2028 in similar trajectory to 2015 if they executed the trades an draft correctly.
Wonder what they would have to trade to get Senga from the Mets? After a couple of rough starts he's pitched well his last 2 starts. He's the kinda guy that Miller would work well with.
Every loss pushes closer to an easy decision to rebuild. out: Walker, Pena, Paredes, Meyers, Vazquez, Alvarez, Allen, Harris, Johnson, Abreu, Brown, DLS, Imai, Okert, Pearson, Weiss in: 22 prospects (7 top 100 prospects, 5 Org Top 10 prospects, 5 Org Top 30 prospects, 5 PTBNL types)
Dodgers get Yordan Alvarez Astros get a couple of schmucks that don't see the light of day on an MLB field. MLB immediately deploys a 2 DH rule on August 1. Dodgers go on to win 127 games.
That’s one of the complicating factors about the idea of trading Yordan. He is one of the 5 most valuable hitters on earth, yet it’s hard to see his market because most of the teams that could meet any reasonable price for him already have entrenched DHs. Add in his full no trade clause and all of a sudden it’s very hard to envision a scenario where Houston trades Alvarez and gets fair value back; which is brutal because he’s by far their most valuable healthy trade chip. Yordan, Brown, and Pena represent enough value by themselves to put Houston back in a spot like they were in circa 2015.
Houston would almost certainly be one of the 5 worst teams this season, but it might not be the case in 2027 and beyond depending on how Crane approached the budget and what kind of prospects Houston got back. Hypothetical 2027 roster: SS Correa RF Smith 2B Altuve LF Seiya Suzuki (free agent signing) 3B MLB Top 100 prospect from Alvarez/Pena/Brown trades DH Josh Bell (free agent signing) CF Loperfido/Matthews platoon C Diaz 1B Dezenzo Bench: Shewmake, Trammell, Jake Rogers (free agent signing) SP: Michael King (free agent signing), MLB Top 100 prospect from Alvarez/Pena/Brown trades, Burrows, Arrighetti, Lambert, Ethan Pecko RP: Hader, King, Sousa, Javier, Teng, Blubaugh, Ullola That’s not a World Series contending roster but it’s a decent team and when factoring in that the farm would be one of the best of any farm in the last 15-20 years, it’s a pretty good place to be. I don’t mind watching mediocre or even bad teams, as long as they’re built toward a realistic goal of winning championships. It’s when a team is bad/mediocre and built with overpaid, aging players backed up by a crummy farm that things get miserable.
There is zero trade the Astros make involving Yordan that would make me as a fan happy. This is Yordan's 8th season. It is like trading Bagwell in 1998 or Biggio in 1995.
It’s not ideal. But I would rather they trade Yordan at peak value and start another run than keep him and wallow in mediocrity while Yordan spends his remaining prime on a non-contender (with every present potential for major injury).
I agree it's getting easier and easier to envision a rebuild, whether 'soft' or 'hard'. If that comes to fruition however, I think Crane almost certainly has to pull the plug on Dana Brown. The board sentiment that he is a great scout/developmental guy but doesn't possess the acuity to understand the overall landscape of an organization in order to be a successful GM, seems spot on in my opinion. Which begs the question, do we trust Crane to actually find a capable GM and not just be a 'yes' man. There are lots of variables beyond selling and acquiring talent. Just my two cents.
I get this point but I think the worst case is Crane spending enough to keep the roster loaded with aging talent and this team continues to contend for a 3rd seed or WC spot 4 out of every 5 seasons. I do not see a path for the Astros to become the Royals or Pirates
Maybe figure out a staff that doesn't walk 6 ******* batters per 9 innings? ...eta: 174 runs, 158 walks, 260 hits, 253 innings pitched
As a fan, I don't want to trade Alvarez. That said, I have not paid attention to KC this season. I'm a little surprised KC is playing bad enough this season that the Astros still have more regular season wins in 2024-2026 so far than them. Granted, I think odds are good that the Royals will have more postseason success in 2024-2026 than the Astros even if the Astros end up with a handful of more regular season wins.
