If we just go position by position thru this roster: C: Brown rolled with Diaz, who had given every reason to think he’d be a solid starting catcher if not a star. Diaz has regressed (or at least failed to progress) in every facet of the game. Brown’s choices for backup have panned out really really well, with both Caratini and now Vazquez providing surplus value. It’s hard to fault Brown for not having the foresight to trade Diaz after 2023, but that’s probably what would’ve been best. Rank in C fwar since 2023: 9th Grade C 1B: Brown inherited the Jose Abreu nightmare, then boldly signed a similar free agent in Christian Walker; that deal looked disastrous but with Walker’s resurgence it looks roughly fair. It’s also fair to criticize Brown for not pulling the trigger on Abreu sooner, although it had to be hard to do that considering his boss is the one who signed him. Rank in 1B fwar since 2023: 28th Grade C- 2B: Altuve was entrenched and while moving him to LF didn’t work out, it’s no fault of Browns that Altuve is still their 2B. Rank 4th Grade C SS: Pena was entrenched. There is a potential ding here with Brown going with Alllen as the backup to replace Dubon but Correa playing SS mitigates that. Rank 7th Grade C 3B: The real question is if Brown should have traded Alex Bregman after the 2023 season. Another Cam Smith/Isaac Paredes return would really have improved their medium and long term outlooks. But it’s hard to fault Brown for keeping a player like Bregman. Acquiring Paredes and smith looks like a very good trade. The Correa trade looks fine but I believe that move was heavily influenced by Crane. So the real ding on the GM here is not configuring the roster to avoid Paredes being on the bench, but with all the injuries that hasn’t been a factor. Rank: 3rd Grade C+ RF: Brown inherited Tucker then immediately installed Cam Smith. I assume Brown thought McCormick would be better and thus prevent them from rushing Smith, and that was a miss. But so far this season Smith looks like a budding star. Trading Tucker also freed up money they were able to use elsewhere. Rank: 8th Grade B CF: Brown rolled with Jake Meyers, who has been a mixed bag due to injuries and offensive inconsistency. But Houston didn’t spend money here and has gotten solid production. Rank 11th Grade C LF: This has been a mix of Yordan, McCormick, and a bunch of nobodies. There’s potential fault here for not swapping Paredes for an everyday LF or finding a better budget free agent. Rank 13th Grade C- DH: Mostly Yordan, Yainer, and Altuve. It is worth noting that Yainer has been awful as a DH (wRC+ 70), This position is tied to LF. Rank 9th Grade C SP: The pitching has been a strength prior to this season. Hunter Brown got established during Brown’s tenure. Brown discovered Ronel Blanco. Should the Astros have traded Framber before last season? Brown got positive value out of unheralded guys like Arrighetti, France, Alexander, and Gusto. He won the Kikuchi trade. He lost the Verlander deal. He appears to have lost the Javier extension. He inherited the McCullers contract. His best move was keeping the pitching coaches in place (before losing Murphy this offseason). Rank 9th Grade C RP: Houston has spent significant money on the bullpen over the last 4 seasons, but Brown inherited Pressly and Montero, and I think Crane demanded the Hader deal. Brown inherited Bryan Abreu. He gets at least partial credit for Okert, King, and Sousa, all of whom have performed really well. But the pen has been a very mixed bag in his tenure, especially factoring in this season so far. Rank 20th Grade C- Farm system: Houston’s farm has deteriorated over the years, but how much of that is Dana Browns doing is debatable. On the one hand, he’s yet to develop an elite prospect through his 3 drafts here, and aside from Cam Smith there might not be a long term core piece that he’s acquired that will debut before 2029. However, if you analyze his draft classes and international signings, he’s outperformed the standard expectations based on the resources he had (I.e. relative to his pool $ amounts). We need more time to evaluate him here, but so far I would give him a C+. All in all I think Brown has been roughly average as a GM so far. Is that good enough? Does that mean he should be fired? Not my call and I will understand whatever way Crane goes.
I think they are more than $3M under. Signing Giolito might’ve limited what they can do at the deadline but it wouldn’t have put them over the CBT.
Hopium None of the injuries to players of core level importance are season ending, or even 3+ month injuries. This team can easily be at full strength well before the ASB. And have all "crucial" players back before June. There are 35 games between now and 6/1 which is about 6 weeks. By that time (according to reports) Brown, Imai, Hader, Sousa, Pena, Loperfido, Dezenzo, Pearson, and Bolton should all be back (again - hopium on Brown) I expect Javier to take longer because of his history and where he was at time of injury. He along with Trammell and Meyers are the injuries that are most likely to take longer to return. From that point on, there will be 101 games remaining. If they can win at a 90 win pace the remainder of the season, that is 56-45. Baseball Reference is projecting 85 wins to get the final WC in a very weak AL. Then they need to go 19-16 the next 6 weeks to "theoretically " stay within grasp of a postseason berth. That adds up to a final record of 85-77
We have 4 plus arms in the rotation - when healthy. Brown, Lambert, Arrighetti and Imai.....then we have average guys in McCullers, and the rest as starters - in the pen, plus arms are Bluebaugh, Abreu, Hader, Okert..... If healthy, and this offense that is enough to contend and make a deep run - I wouldn't panic......I think the ship will right itself. If you can get a good starter pitcher for Paredas that might be something - as he is a luxury.....but a good one. DD
White Sox finally hit on a player. He's homered in 5 straight games and is 2nd in total HRs after Yordan.
I can't think of any significant MLB contributors obtained by Brown from the draft, IFA, or as prospects acquired that actually went to the farm. Maybe one could argue for an incomplete. Maybe I should pay more attention to Pecko. I just am not expecting a big surge of MLB talent from the farm until at least Alvarez/Neyens. That's going to be quite a few years. I typically don't get too excited in a prospect until they do something in AA.
I'm expecting the A's, Angels, and Rangers to falter. The Mariners are 11-15. I'm not sure an AL West team wins 85.
This HAS to be an incomplete Its unfair to expect any draft pick to be a good MLB player within 3 years of the draft and Dana has only had 3 drafts. International FAs take even longer. Even his first draft class are just starting their 3rd full professional season. Matthews, as a 1st rd guy out if college should be the one that can most fairly be judged soon, but there is a huge adjustment from AAA to MLB and it is unfair to expect "significant contribution" before a guy has even 100PAs. If Matthews can't do that and there aren't significant positive results from 4-6 other guys by next year, then it will be fair to grade him.
I mean, that's fine, and it's fair. It's early, even though he was a college player and not a high school kid. But Matthews was ranked the #57 prospect leading into the draft by both the Athletic and MLB.com. He was seen as a toolsy prospect with a lot of exit velo but also an lot of swing and miss at balls inside the strike zone. He was projected as a second rounder, and taking him in the first may have been a reach. He was taken ahead of Kevin McGonigle, a HS prospect who's currently slashing .322/.413/.500 for the Tigers and playing well at SS and 3B. McGonigle was a higher ranked prospect on both lists and is 3 years younger. Passing on him for a lower-tiered guy who seems to have not improved on any of his college weaknesses looks to be a miss.
It's for sure an incomplete, but if you evaluate how things are going so far, he's probably been average. I think it is very easy to fall into the trap of expecting way too much out of late picks. For every 1 Kevin McConigle who became a superstar after being picked late in the 1st round, there are 20 guys who bust that you never hear about. It's not reasonable to expect a GM to turn the 28th overall pick (or picks from even later in the draft) into long term core star performers. It is huge that Dana Brown didn't have a 2nd round pick in 2024 or 2025. From picks 25-36 of the 2023 draft, Matthews is the only one to reach the majors so far. My rough expectation for outcomes based on bonus/draft slot: Top 5 overall: star 6-15: solid everyday player 16-99: contributor Rd 4-10: flame out in AA/AAA, ~30% should at least get a cup of coffee, ~10% should be long term MLB players, ~1% should be stars Rd 11-20: flame out in High A/AA, ~10% reach the majors, ~3% become long term big leaguers, <1% become stars 2023: 1 Matthews: reached the majors, he's currently 11th in bwar among players drafted in the 1st round that year. PUSH 2 Tredwell: career derailed by injury, a common outcome for pitchers LOSS 3 Bloss: became a fringe top 100 prospect; traded for Kikuchi WIN 4. Fisher: busted in High A LOSS 5. Jaworsky: traded for Jesus Sanchez, currently in High A WIN 6. Pecko: currently in AAA, underrated prospect who should probably be a fringe Top 100 type WIN 7. Dixon: derailed by injury LOSS 8. Johnson: flamed out in AA PUSH 9. Williams: derailed by injury in AA PUSH 10. Deming: flamed out in AA PUSH 11-20: Hicks, Bush, Ferreras, and Huezo are trending to deliver value. Duncan (unsigned 19th rounder) is only player not still in the system WIN I'd say so far this looks about average. Pecko could end up carrying this draft. 2024: 1. Janek: struggling in AA LOSS 3. Forcucci: TBD, derailed by injury LOSS 4. Smith: in High A PUSH 5. Hertzler: in High A WIN 6. Powell: struggling in High A LOSS 7. Sullivan: hitting in AA WIN 8. Howard: in High A PUSH 9. Smith: released LOSS 10. David: RP in AA PUSH 11-20. Twine Palmer was traded for Ramon Urias, Schiavone is raking in High A, Bryce Mayer is one of the best pitching prospects in the system WIN If Janek doesn't rebound this will be a below average draft but it's too early to tell. 2025: 1. Neyens: holding his own as a teenager in A ball WIN 3. Frey: not hitting for power in High A LOSS 4. Monistere: hitting well in A ball PUSH 5. Potter: throwing well in A ball PUSH 6. Pentecost: throwing ok in A ball PUSH 7. Mitchell: still in the complex PUSH 8. Walker: hitting ok in High A PUSH 9. Oakes: pitching in A ball PUSH 10. Daudet: struggling in High A LOSS 11-20. Justin Thomas is raking in High A, Josh Wakefield is raking in A ball PUSH It's just way way way too early to analyze but Neyens is tracking to end up on a few Top 100 lists by the end of the year. In the international classes, it's a big plus that Kevin Alvarez is already in full season ball and has made at least one Top 100 list. Cesar Hernandez is looking pretty good in Asheville. Anthony Millan and Sami Manzueta ar getting some hype in the DSL. It's just too early to issue a referendum on Brown as a farm builder. I wonder how many GMs have been fired based on a poorly performing big league roster before they had enough time to actually show what they could do thru building a farm system. Probably a lot. Luhnow's significant wins outside of the Top 10: McCullers (41st overall, 2012) Ramon Laureano (16th rd, 2014) Jeremy Pena (2rd rd, 2018) Hunter Brown (5th rd, 2019) Lesser wins but worth mentioning: Brett Phillips (6th rd, 2012) Tony Kemp (5th rd, 2013) JD Davis (3rd rd, 2014) Patrick Sandoval (11th rd, 2015) Myles Straw (12th rd, 2015) Jake Rogers (3rd rd, 2016) Jake Meyers (13th rd, 2017) Chas McCormick (21st rd, 2017) Josh Rojas (26th rd, 2017) So the alleged GOAT was able to get 4 high quality players in 8 drafts outside of guys he picked in the top 5. I am not sure if Brown's drafts are on track to deliver that, but I think it will be close. Luhnow whiffed on his 1st rd pick for 4 straight seasons (2016-2019).
Looking at the stats I see Yordan leading the entire league in HRs, RBIs AND HITS, as well as 2nd in BA. Geez. Hate to be a downer but isn't this about the time when one of our players comes out of the gate like an MVP candidate only to go on the DL for 2 months? I don't mind him cooling off as long as he stays healthy.
I would not call a player a win until they produce 3 fWAR in the majors for their club control years or are traded for 3 fWAR. I think odds are not good that Matthews produces 3 fWAR, but would likely go way past it if he does. I'd give Pecko the best odds of producing 3 fWAR for the Astros from the 2023 draft. Sanchez and Bloss are L's because they were traded for guys that did not produce 3 fWAR for the Astros. I'd guess the average is between 1 and 2 players with a club-controlled fWAR over 3 such that 0 or 1 players is below average (unless one guy produces a lot) and 2 and above is above average. I would have nothing better than a push for anyone in the 24 and 25 drafts. Judging by how things are today, I would rate Brown as below average, as I see no way to rate the 24 and 25 drafts objectively, and the Astros likely need both Pecko and Matthews to be wins for the 2023 not to be below average.
Posts like this are why I wish this board had a downvote option. We don't need this put out there to be manifested. Bad juju!
