I’d say if the losing continues at this rate, Espada is gone by mid to late May. Especially if the team loses at the rate they have since winning their 5th game. I think if he reaches June with the Astros still playing .400 ball then winning was clearly not a goal this season.
Brown and Espada will keep pointing to the return of his top two starters and pen arms as proof this season will be saved… but I think this season is a wrap by May 15th if this keep up like it has.
This team is not an ace and closer away from being good. When getting 5 competitive innings from your starter feels like a major win, you aren't a real threat. I guess there is still some hope that Imai can get his mind right and Arrighetti can break out, but the path to being an actual contender feels very narrow right now. The quality start is one of the dumbest of the arbitrary stats, but still, 3 quality starts in 23 games is pretty damn embarrassing. The offense starting the season white hot saved a couple of games we should have lost.
The difference between my expectation on opening day vs reality so far, measured in wins: Abreu sucks -1.0 win so far Javier sucks and got hurt -0.9 Diaz sucks -0.7 Paredes sucks -0.7 Pena got hurt -0.5 Burrows sucks -0.5 Imai sucks and got hurt -0.5 Weiss sucks -0.5 Blubaugh sucks -0.5 Hader got hurt -0.3 Meyers got hurt: -0.2 Hunter Brown got hurt -0.2 Christian Walker is good +0.2 Altuve is good +0.2 Christian Vazquez is good +0.6 Cam Smith is badass +1.0 Yordan is badass +1.1 About as expected: Loperfido, Allen, Matthews, Correa, McCullers, Teng, Okert, Roa, King Thats ~4 wins less than I expected, so I guess I only should’ve expected Houston to be 12-11 right now. I probably would’ve predicted something like 13-10 or 14-9 after looking at their schedule. They may be underperforming their Pythagorean record by ~2 wins. This team is cooked. I have no expectation they will rebound enough to warrant buying at the deadline, so I’m just looking forward to the draft and hoping their biggest trade chips reclaim some value and Dana Brown executes.
Meaning you think he finishes out the season and then we part ways in the off season, correct? I imagine at this point they need him to run the draft so they won’t get rid of him mid-season.
Am I the only one perplexed by this trade? We're starved for pitching and we're trading a 22 year old pitcher with a 1.59 ERA this year in AA for a 28 year old IF in AAA?
He’s a 5’8” RP who cannot consistently throw strikes. He throws 97-99 so he’s got potential but he’s not somebody that projected to be able to help Houston this season. Adding Shewmake might be a sign that they are ready to move on from Allen; Shewmake is a former first round pick who makes a lot of contact so he doesn’t strike out much, but he cannot hit for power because he never filled out his lanky frame. He hits LH. At 28 there’s not much upside to him but he might be a better fit for Houston’s roster than Nick Allen.
Was Crane the one that also told him to go to the media and announce that we will be attempting to get early extensions done with all our best players (like the Braves were doing at the time)? I know he's not doing things unilaterally, and Crane always has the final say. We also already knew about LMJ's injury history at the time of the extension talks (TJS 2018), and I could see Crane using that (and the at-the-time very strong track record of pitchers post TJS) to make the numbers work.... plus LMJ was a far bigger presence/fan favorite at the time (on a team that still had another 2-3 years contending window). There was more not said about Javier's load management from 2020-2022 than what was said. He was a decent out of the pen weapon in 2021, but the lack of a set schedule played havoc on some preparation/stamina issues... and even with that (and what was a pennant winning team), they stuck with it from the 2nd quarter of the regular season through the WS. Also, young players taking those below market extensions should always raise an eyebrow... from Javier to Yordan. Altuve did it too and maybe he isn't the HOF player he is now without that waaaay below-market deal (but doubt it), and Crane obviously made amends before he even had to.
I don't think it should raise anybrows. Unless I'm mistaken, neither Javier or Yordan had any money to fall back in life. Especially with pitchers, you never know when you'll blow out an arm (especially if you work for the Astros) and when your career might end. If you have a chance to lock in $80MM+ and eliminate money as an issue for the rest of your life, it makes a lot sense - regardless of how much you might believe in yourself. At the end of the day, the team has the leverage in those situations but the tradeoff is still worth it for the player. Those are the win-win extensions that make sense for everyone.
You’ve been consistent with this stance throughout, even when Altuve was getting paid less than Jon Singleton, and it’s what most teams hope all these players consider. That being said, if they have agents that are experienced in this field, they would have all advised against it. When it does happen, it’s usually the player and the player knows something about themselves that they just don’t trust. (And mind you, this is different than the Witt, J-Rod, or even Bregman deals where they’re all getting market rate/FA dollars, just earlier at the pre-inflation levels). There’s a reason the majority of the young players wait (pitchers included). History shows they will make a ton more waiting till free agency vs. taking earlier extensions. Even damaged good players like LMJ still make out ok near their FA years, just less-so. The only time they’ll get truly nothing is for the rare catastrophic career-ending type injury/surgery (not sure there is one of those in baseball anymore… although any shoulder surgery on a pitcher should be a major red flag, ahem Hunter). Altuve’s example is the rarest case… and hopefully Yordan is a 2.0 version (although he has missed basically 2 full seasons, and had bilateral knee surgery before he turned 25?). Pena was advised against the deal that was about to be inked and even if he has a down season this year, he’ll make much more when he hits FA.
We've had a ridiculous run of success, so I can't be too torn up about the run seemingly coming to an end. I just have zero optimism about the direction of the franchise. Even looking at the farm there's not a single prospect that I can muster any excitement for above A ball. Just a big group of "hey, this guy could be decent" type prospects with big red flags.
That Kevin guy has any red flags? Seems like he would be at least something to be excited about? (Granted, I dont recall his last name… just Kevin something).
Some truth to this as players (even in a down FA year) can sign short term prove it deals for a good amount of money and once they hit that magic season, cash in for the long haul. There's always a club that sees a players value as higher than it actually is just because of one good season. Profar comes to mind.
Kevin Alvarez and Xavier Neyens our first round pick last season are both in A ball and easily our most exciting prospects IMO. However they are both forever away, could easily peter out with that much ground in front of them.
For me, I expected more from Burrows and Imai than Astros have gotten, and the Astros would try to survive the bottom of the rotation. All the maybe pitchers seem to have just been complete negatives so far when I expected some to be okay. The pitching has been so bad, I've not noticed anything bad on the offense side except Diaz. As bad as things have been, I won't say the Astros are done. I just have no faith in the other AL West teams to be decent, except the Mariners. Only being 2 games back of the Mariners with how bad things have been for the Astros is hilarious.
