The Dana Brown drafts have not refilled the pitching on the farm, I guess. The 2023 draft prospects should have two full season in the Astros minor league "system". I do not see a pitcher who is in AAA and ready rn. I do expect a handful of the 2023 pitching prospects to debut in 2026, by end of season. Spoiler: 2023 2023 Astros Draft Pick Tracker Round 1, Pick 28: Brice Matthews, SS, Nebraska (JR); signed for $2,478,200 ($402,500 below slot value of $2,880,700) Round 2, Pick 61: Alonzo Tredwell, RHP, UCLA (JR); signed for $1,497,500 ($192,600 over slot value of $1,304,900) Round 3, Pick 99: Jake Bloss, RHP, Georgetown (Grad student); signed for $497,500 ($181,000 below slot value of $678,500) Round 4, Pick 131: Cam Fisher, OF, UNC-Charlotte (SR); signed for $497,500 ($100 below slot value of $497,600) Round 5, Pick 164: Chase Jaworsky, SS, Rock Canyon HS (Highlands Ranch, Colorado); committed to Utah Valley; signed for $847,500 ($486,700 over slot value of $360,800) Round 6, Pick 194: Ethan Pecko, RHP, Towson (JR); signed for $247,500 ($33,200 below slot value of $280,700) Round 7, Pick 224: Joey Dixon, RHP, Stanford (JR); signed for $218,800 ($2,500 below slot value of $221,300) Round 8, Pick 254: Ryan Johnson, 2B, Pepperdine (SR); signed for $97,500 ($89,000 below slot value of $186,500) Round 9, Pick 284: Jeron Williams, SS, Toledo (SR); signed for $147,500 ($25,000 below slot value of $172,500) Round 10, Pick 314: Austin Deming, 3B, Brigham Young (5th-year SR); signed for $7,500 ($156,900 below slot value of $164,400) Round 11, Pick 344: Nehomar Ochoa Acosta, OF, Galena Park HS (Galena Park, Texas); signed for $300,000 ($150,000 counts against bonus pool) Round 12, Pick 374: Anthony Huezo, OF, Etiwanda HS (Rancho Cucamonga, California); signed for $397,500 ($247,500 counts against pool) Round 13, Pick 404: James Hicks, RHP, South Carolina (SR); signed for $150,000 Round 14, Pick 434: Jackson Nezuh, RHP, Louisiana-Lafayette (JR); signed for $150,000 Round 15, Pick 464: Garret Guillemette, C, Texas (JR); signed for $150,000 Round 16, Pick 494: Will Bush, C, Tyler Junior College (JUCO FR); signed for $150,000 Round 17, Pick 524: Colby Langford, LHP, Murray State College (JUCO SOPH); signed for $150,000 Round 18, Pick 554: Derek True, RHP, Cal Poly (JR); signed for $100,000 Round 19, Pick 584: Andrew Duncan, OF, A3 Academy (Tampa); committed to Florida State Round 20, Pick 614: Pascanel Ferreras, SS, Western Carolina (JR); signed for $150,000 Spoiler: 2024 2024 Astros Draft Pick Tracker Round 1, Pick 28: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State; signed for $3,130,000 (full slot value, $2500 contingency bonus does not count towards pool) Round 3, Pick 101: Ryan Forcucci, RHP, UC San Diego; $724,800; signed for $997,500 ($272,700 above slot) Round 4, Pick 131: Parker Smith, RHP, Rice; $541,100 - signed for $447,500 ($93,600 below slot; $2500 contingency bonus does not count towards pool) Round 5, Pick 163: Cole Hertzler, RHP, Liberty; $396,200 - signed for $393,700 (full slot value, but $2500 contingency bonus does not count against pool) Round 6, Pick 193: Caden Powell, SS, Seminole State College; $307,600; signed for $402,500 ($94,900 above slot) Round 7, Pick 223: Joseph Sullivan, OF, South Alabama; $242,400 - signed for $239,900 ($2500 contingency bonus does not count towards pool) Round 8, Pick 253: Dylan Howard, RHP, Radford; $203,500 - signed for $201,000 ($2500 contingency bonus does not count towards pool) Round 9, Pick 283: Ryan Smith, RHP, Illinois-Chicago; $187,800 - signed for $177,500 ($10,300 below slot) Round 10, Pick 313: Ramsey David, RHP, Southeastern; $178,800 - signed for $105,000 ($73,800 below slot; $2500 contingency bonus does not count against pool) Round 11, Pick 343: Jason Schiavone, C, James Madison; signed for $150,000 Round 12, Pick 373: Ryan Verdugo, RHP, Cal State Bakersfield; signed for $172,500 ($22,500 counts against pool) Round 13, Pick 403: Bryce Boettcher, OF, Oregon - signed for $150,000; returning to Oregon for football season first Round 14, Pick 433: Ryan Mathiesen, RHP, The Master's University; signed for $150,000 Round 15, Pick 463: Drew Vogel, SS, Murray State; signed for $130,000 Round 16, Pick 493: Bryce Mayer, RHP, Missouri Round 17, Pick 523: Ethan Wagner, OF, P27 Academy (Lexington, South Carolina); committed to Tennessee; signed for $150,000 Round 18, Pick 553: Grant Burleson, RHP, Western Kentucky; signed for $125,000 Round 19, Pick 583: Twine Palmer, RHP, Connors State College; signed for $197,500 ($47,500 counts against pool) Round 20, Pick 613: Ky McGary, OF, Sandra Day O'Connor High School (Phoenix); committed to Arizona State Spoiler: 2025 2025 Astros Draft Pick Tracker Round 1, Pick 21: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon High School, Mount Vernon, Washington - signed for $4,120,000 (full slot value, $2500 contingency bonus removed) Round 3, Pick 95: Ethan Frey, OF, LSU - signed for $997,500 (probably signed for $1 million, but $2500 contingency bonus was removed; $193,600 over slot value) Round 4, Pick 126: Nick Monistere, 2B, Southern Miss - signed for $397,500 ($197,000 below slot value) Round 5, Pick 156: Nick Potter, RHP, Wichita State - signed for $336,600 ($106,500 below slot value) Round 6, Pick 186: Gabel Pentecost, RHP, Taylor (Indiana) - signed for $297,500 ($44,100 below slot value) Round 7, Pick 216: Jase Mitchell, C, Cape Henlopen High School, Lewes, Delaware - signed for $797,500 ($529,800 over slot value) Round 8, Pick 246: Kyle Walker, 2B, Arizona State - signed for $152,500 ($67,300 below slot value) Round 9, Pick 276: Kellan Oakes, RHP, Oregon State - signed for $247,500 ($48,000 over slot value) Round 10, Pick 306: Zach Daudet, SS, Cal Poly - signed for $7,500 ($2,500 contingency bonus removed; $181,400 below slot value) Round 11, Pick 336: Justin Thomas, OF, Arkansas - signed for $177,500 ($27,500 counts against pool) Round 12, Pick 366: Elijah Farley, Navarro High School, Geronimo, Texas - signed for $150,000 (max for rounds 11-20) Round 13, Pick 396: Aubrey Smith, RHP, UNC Wilmington - signed for $150,000 Round 14, Pick 426: Josh Wakefield, OF, Grand Canyon - signed for $150,000 Round 15, Pick 456: D.J. Newman, RHP/OF, Bowling Green - signed for $202,500 ($52,500 counts against pool) Round 16, Pick 486: Chase Call, OF, UC Irvine - signed for $20,000 Round 17, Pick 516: Grayson Saunier, RHP, Texas - signed for $150,000 Round 18, Pick 546: Landon Arroyos, SS, Grayson High School, Loganville, Georgia - signed for $252,500 ($102,500 counts against pool) Round 19, Pick 576: Joey McLaughlin, OF, Harrah High School, Harrah, Oklahoma (committed to Arkansas State) Round 20, Pick 606: Curtis Hebert, SS, Portland - signed for $150,000
How quickly do you expect pitchers to move thru the system? It’s not reasonable to expect guys drafted in 2024 and 2025 to be graduating into core players by now. So you’re really just talking about the 2023 draft, which included: Alonzo Tredwell (2): hurt Jake Bloss (3): traded for Kikuchi Ethan Pecko (6): in AAA and a top prospect who will likely contribute this season Joey Dixon (7): injury bust James Hicks (13): solid prospect in AA who will likely contribute this season or next season Jackson Nezuh (14): solid prospect in AA who will likely contribute this season or next season Colby Langford (17): command issues in High A Derek True (18): fringey RP prospect in AA Nobody should expect a GM to find significant value after the 10th round of a draft. Pecko has exceeded his draft slot. Bloss was traded for big league value. So you’re talking about Tredwell (and maybe Dixon, a 7th rounder). Hard to render a verdict on a GM based on a single late 2nd rd pick not panning out.
Nope. Littell has been below replacement level this season. Kelly has yet to pitch because of injury. There is a reason Giolito hasn’t signed with any team. I couldn’t find a single pitcher who signed for <$60M that has pitched well so far this season.
Like I said, it’s not realistic to expect draft picks to be significantly contributing to the major league roster less than 2 years from the draft. So you’re really only talking about 1 draft, in which there was really only one pitcher picked who could’ve reasonably been expected to provide value by now, and that’s Tredwell. Hard to make a judgement off one late 2nd rd pick busting (who hasn’t even busted yet, he’s just hurt).
I definitely didn't make anything out of past the 10th round. Not even past round 5. But look to Nolan McLean, Connelly Early, Grant Taylor, Brandon Sproat, Andrew Walters. Those are all guys from the first 5 rounds, who the Astros had the opportunity to draft. I agree with you that perhaps 2023 is the only Brown year we can reasonably have expected any results from. But our farm system was ranked 29th in 2023 and is still ranked 29th in 2026. I wouldn't say it appears to have been drastically improved in the Brown administration. Nor is the major league team filled with young talent we developed.
My reference was to players who I would have expected to have a solid season this year and eat some innings. I haven't changed my expectations for these guys based on two weeks into the season. That's not a reasonable sample size to change. I still expect Kelly and Littell to pitch as they have in the past, going forward. Either would be an upgrade to our rotation. Giolito is unsigned because he wants more money than what he's been offered, not because he all of a sudden sucks at age 31.
Except if you sign one of those guys, you're having to eliminate another. Brown wasn't it. You could have just eaten Javier or McCullers' contracts, but that's pretty fiscally irresponsible without knowing what they might do (see Christian Walker). So that would have meant not going for Burrows or Imai, which is fine - but then you're basically just accepting mediocrity instead of aiming for upside. That's also not what the Astros needed when trying to replace Framber - they needed the upside of potential playoff starters. I thought he was unsigned because of ongoing elbow injury concerns from the end of last season? That combined with the Astros' pitching program seems like a recipe for disaster.
It may very well turn out that the Imai signing was terrible. If that happens it’ll be a significant ding to Dana Browns GM tenure. Similarly if Burrows doesn’t improve (or if Melton/Brito become MLB stars). I just think <3 weeks is too soon to judge. And it’s not at all reasonable to blame Houston’s early season woes on the production of Dana Browns 2023-2025 drafts. From where I sit on Dana Brown: The Tucker trade looks like a huge win. The Kikuchi trade was a win. The Javier extension looks like a loss. His drafts look above average but are too early to judge. His international signings have looked above average but are way too early to judge. The Astros have continued to find pitching bargains during his tenure. All his other moves were either inconsequential or too early/close to judge (Walker signing, Imai signing, Burrows trade). I’m giving Crane credit/blame for the Hader signing and the Correa trade. All in all I think Brown has been slightly above average, but the real proof will come in 2-3 years once his first 2-3 drafts are graduated.
Burrows is a 26 year old former 11th round pick with a 4 FIP last year who can’t go more than 5 innings. Any of this potential playoff starter buzz was based on the Astros history of maximizing pitching talent. It was not based on any track record of his own success. At least with Imai, I saw and still see the potential. I think he will bounce back, if he’s not hurt now too. Which gives us two good starters, when Hunter returns. Maybe you think this was a well constructed rotation. That’s fine. I disagree. I guess we will see going forward.
Absolutely, but isn't that the point? The Astros pitching team has an immense track record on identifying people they think they can fix/improve. Shouldn't Dana Brown be deferring to them when trying to determine who to go after? If they were high on Burrows, it seems like that's a bet you want your GM to make. And we have no evidence he *can't* go more than 5 innings. He was a rookie last year coming off major arm surgery on a team playing for nothing. Why would they push him? They never had him throw more than 90 pitches last year, and generally much less - even during his good outings.
I agree with you about the Tucker trade. Liked it when it happened. I agree on the Kikuchi trade. Wish we retained him but I get it based on the potential options we had in the 2025 rotation. Javier extension was terrible. The determining factor for his draft picks, imo, is whether they end up helping the big club. Either on the roster and producing, or as trade bait. So far, we haven’t seen much. I get it’s early, but I gave a list of names of 2023 pitchers it would sure be nice to have drafted. Not getting those guys doesn’t mean that draft was a failure, but it sure would have been nice to have a McLean, for example.
The former pitching team, yes. In hindsight, losing Murphy to the Pirates might have been the biggest loss we have suffered in a while. The secret sauce might not be there with the new combo of Miller and the new guy from the White Sox.
You listed the 5 best pitchers from that draft so far outside of Skenes. 3 of them were drafted before Houston’s 2nd rd pick so Brown would’ve had to have chosen them in the 1st round instead of Matthews. It’s just not realistic to say Houston’s current problems are the result of their GM not drafting 1 of 5 players who dramatically exceeded their draft slot and expected development timeline. Would it have been nice? Sure. But it’s not a reasonable basis for judging Brown (yet). I know it’s no fun to just assign outcomes to bad luck, but I really do think that’s what accounts for the bulk of Houston’s disappointment so far. Hopefully it evens out.
Agreed - and this might be their biggest problem, unfortunately. If that's true and the new pitching team is not up for the task, then all the assumptions the Astros have relied on to be competitive the last decade get blown up.
Brown hired Espada and he's probably the reason Brown is hurt, throwing 102 pitches in his 1st start, SMH Espada ruined Hader last yr and the Stros will probably have to pay the price for this dumbazz decision for 3 more yrs. It is what it is, Abreu sucking? I never thought he had the control to be a closer, how many more times is Abreu going to have to suck before Espada quits using Abreu in high leverage roles?
Completely with you - HB, Hader Abreu not on Dana Brown. Small sample of course, but I am concerned about Imai and Burrows. I’ve watched all their starts. Burrows looks a lot more like a SP4 than a playoff SP1 or 2. Maybe he becomes a SP3, which does have value, but not a home run. The velo that flashed in spring training hasn’t shown in regular season. He has been just a guy. Im worried about Imai, but less so. He has to adjust to MLB mound and ball. He has shown flashes, unlike burrows. and as you said, there weren’t better options for what he cost. Burrows is under team control for what, 5-6 years, so he is far more important. I don’t like what I’m seeing thus far. (also, I don’t ding Dana for Weis, Roa, Pearson and the like. We don’t have unlimited dollars, so rolling the dice on those dudes makes sense. And they aren’t that consequential anyway).
When the Astros started the season, they had added several "camp arms" to the AAA like: Tom Cosgrove, Sam Carlson, Peter Lambert, Christian Roa and Nate Pearson Roa has already been called up and performed well (caveat: small sample size). Pearson is rehabbing, but the other arms might be able to help the big team this season ... maybe sooner than later.
