He’s always teetering on the edge of high end role player vs solid starter on a contender. None of those are bad outcomes especially considering his contract, but he also feels very expendable, you can always go get a 3&D player who would give you a whole bunch of what Jabari gives you if not more.
36% is only a TS% of 54%. Better than average halfcourt shot, but JSJ still only gets slightly above average gravity that is a better, but similar to Tari, and much closer to Sengun in off ball gravity than to Reed. Sengun gets some gravity because he's a threat with ball, as a screener, and teams want to keep him out of the paint. He's fine or better than fine if the Rockets had better stars or operated with 4 shooters at all times. I just don't know if fine is fine with the other players on Rockets roster. I still like JSJ, but I'm not sure his shooting or his defense is good enough to start long term with Amen and a non-shooting center unless there is a Top 5 player on the team. Granted, I've been disappointed with the regression of the youngish core this season as a whole.
Most of those issues are issues for the stars or other players. I'd prefer that JSJ relocate more when off-ball, but his standing still is mostly an issue because the Rockets run at least 2 non-shooters at a time. As the Rockets get to choose who initiates, JSJ being the 4th or 5th worst initiator in the starting lineup isn't bad as that is not his role. His defense is okay. Maybe a little taxed if he remains the SF. Granted, I think the Rockets either need better stars or will need to improve on JSJ in the starting lineup.
It’s just too slow collectively and we lose all the races. I have no problem with Jabari’s ranking as player, or development, or shot. I just don’t need a role player power forward. These other teams are running out lineups with 4 faster more fluid athletes than sometimes all but 1 of our players on the court. They get all the lose balls, they pressure ball handlers more than us, they kick our ass up the court and get more open 3s and layups. They may be worse players on paper but speed and skill has played out to be a superior advantage to height. Lauri Markannen is a good player but if we had Lauri Markannen instead of Jabari next to KD and Sengun, I would think we should trade Lauri Markannen for Derrick White or something so Donte Divencenzo and Julian Champanie are no longer significantly faster than 3 of our starters.
Well you are the person who originally lumped him with Amen, which is why I want to make a distinction. If Amen's defense is 10/10 and we say Reed/Sengun/KD to be say 3/10, then Jabari is more like a 6/10.
FWIW, I too have been disappointed with the development of our guys but I don't necessarily think Jabari is our most pressing place of improvement. He seems to be fairly paid for a low end NBA level starting PF with some upside in his growth. Go a level lower price wise and you are in Rui Hachimura/PJ Washington/Harrison Barnes/Patrick Williams type. Spend a little more and you get the Jerami Grant, Sabonis, Julius Randle types of guys. I think Jabari has - improved his consistency this year - has been flashing some ability to more consistently get to his spots and those shots become somewhat automatic(the mid range fadeaway he has), - he is more reliably attacking hard closeouts and matchup mismatches(automatically goes to the post if a little guy is on him) - and I think he has made some improvements as a help defender which is critical because Amen is likely our point of attack defender of choice ....but yes - he is still fairly pedestrian as a point of attack defender, and he still occasionally gets himself into trouble trying to do too much on offense. I think he is a long body that everyone seems fairly comfortable shooting over - would like to see him make people uncomfortable more often/keep them out of rhythm. I think he needs to become more disruptive off ball to really make him invaluable but that means he needs to start learning the scouting report better - there are 29 other PFs out there, learn ALL of their preferences, then learn the preference of the guys you will likely get isolated one on one with. Understand when a player has a problem going left or tends to hit more shots at the elbow and force them to do the opposite. He can absolutely improve here and I think combine that with a little more shooting consistency and he should be a perfectly fine starter long term. ....sure I would like to replace him, but I don't think there are significantly better options actually available for the money.
Along with Tari and Amen (per minute). The Rockets have the same record as last year, with an obvious huge improvement in Reed, decent size improvement in JSJ, Durant having an incredible year, Amen playing more, Okogie playing valuable time, and this being a bigger tanking year.
Players 6'10+ who average more than 6.5 boards and shoot a better clip from 3 than Jabari (36.3%): Rob Williams 39.1% (*sample size warning)* Vucevic 36.9% (can't switch to guard perimeter) Ware 39.5% Towns 36.8% Jokic 38% There aren't a lot of bigs who shoot a whole lot better while still bringing a level of rebounding and some level of perimeter defence. I'd like to see Jabari continue to improve all areas, but he's a pretty decent complimentary player. As you say, we need better 'star power'
People love saying similar things about Paolo, but here's the thing... being novel does not equal good. Personally, I'd much rather have Trey Murphy despite not being on your list. There are a lot of players shorter than 6'10 that I would rather have than JSJ. It is hard to replace JSJ because the Rockets lack cap space and will for the foreseeable future. From what I can see, the Rockets are two years away from all the young core being off their rookie contracts. As a group, the Rockets likely need a big jump still from the youngish core for the core to be worth the likely cost to keep it together long term. Personally, most of my issues with JSJ would go away if Amen or Sengun develop a shot or are replaced as I don't think JSJ is bad. I just don't know if he's enough if the Rockets continue with the Amen and Sengun long term.
Yeah I mean thats fair. He's a more positive defender than a negative one but if he gets switched on to say Brunson or Luka or something he's going to likely get burned. But lets say Amen is our best defender unequivocally. Who is actually our second best defender?
But can players like Murphy rebound and play defense like Jabari? It's not just novelty. It's the combination. It's a trade off. Murphy is a much better scorer. So you have to weigh those factors. (I'm not saying I don't prefer Murphy over Smith.) It's like comparing FVV and Reed. Reed is a better shooter and passer but worse defender and ball handler. So it's not only about who is better than who at what things, but also by how much and how they fit.
Well before the injury it would be FVV. And before we realized he's totally done it should've been DFS. Actually DFS defensive numbers look pretty good year. But his offense is so atrocious I'm not sure you want to count him as a rotation guy. Talent wise Tari should be here, but whether it's injuries or other reasons, he's not showing as much of the defensive prowess as in years past. Also KD and Reed aren't terrible team defenders. Reed isn't a good defender in general, but as a guard him sucking on defense not nearly as problematic as Sengun, who has been atrocious without Adams/FVV/Brooks to reduce his burdens on that end.
Well, he took almost a shot and a half more from 3 per game season. That’s a pretty major difference. The more 3s a player takes, the harder it is to maintain a decent percentage.
There is a trade-off, but I do think limiting the pool of players to 6'10+ is novelty. Being 6'10+ helps JSJ do the things he does at the skill level he does it, but I would not give him bonus points on top of that for being tall (i.e., limiting or comparing JSJ solely to guys 6'10+). There are 6'8 PFs that can shoot better. There are 2 young players on the Rockets besides JSJ who can guard PFs. I think Amen is going to be a Rocket for a long time, and I think his shooting is going to have to be worked around. I don't see a reason to limit trying to find non-center guys that work with Amen to 6'10+. On Reed and FVV comparison, I don't see a criterion being proposed that limits comparisons to other players that can do what they do.
It's only a trade off if you heavily value Jabari's height, archetype, or use his specific stats as an arbitrary cutoff for effectiveness. Holmgren didn't make the list because he shoots 36.2% from deep rather than 36.3%. Does that 0.1% difference really make him a less effective shooter when he does literally everything else better, particularly when he's shot better than Jabari in his prior seasons? Heck, Wemby only shoots 34.9% from deep, not even close to Jabari. I guess it's a trade off as to which stretch big we'd rather have. The person you responded to said there are players under 6'10" that he preferred over Jabari and I agree completely. There's nothing inherently special about being 6'10"+. Al Horford did everything you could want out of a stretch big, but is 6'8" instead of 6'10". What difference does it make?
The 6'10 thing is arbitrary! However, it could just as easily be 'players who could slide over to guard the C spot'. I'm not sure how effective Jabari is on that front, but I do believe his future in the NBA is based around his ability to guard 5s for 15+ minutes a night. Whether he ever can effectively guard 5s is another question. I'm not a stan for him! I'm just suggesting his skillset isn't so easily replaced, and the lack of a 'proper' star doesn't invalidate him. Someone like Chet, or Sarr --> these guys are better fits with Alpy and Amen because they legit can guards 5s, guard the perimeter, and bring a decent amount of shot-blocking [Sarr is a work in progress though]. But maybe the issue is keeping both of Alpy and Amen... one gotta go! Hoping for a dynamite playoffs for them both so we can maximise trade value
