What’s weird is that half the staff has performed well. Brown, Imai, McCullers, King, Bolton, De Los Santos, and Teng have put up good top line and underlying stats. Okert and Burrows have been middling. That leaves: Weiss: 7.27 era vs 3.50 xFIP; he has been unlucky Roa: 3.86 era vs 8.80 xFIP; he is due for a fall Blubaugh: 10.80 era vs 6.06 xFIP Munoz: 15.75 era vs 6.60 xFIP (he gone) Javier: 12.54 era vs 7.91 xFIP (hurt) Abreu 19.64 vs 6.29 xFIP So several guys have been bloody awful and had that compounded by horrific luck. Overall the team’s 6.05 era sits well above their 4.39 xFIP. They have the biggest gap between those stats of any team. Aside from hoping Bolton or Weis can replace Brown, if their luck normalizes it could just be a matter of swapping France for Javier (done), Arrighetti for Roa (this weekend as they go to a 6 man rotation), and fixing Abreu.
Hey, we are still 6-7 sitting in 2nd place in the division. It's not our fault we ran in to the best teams in the league to start the season (the mighty Angels, A's and Rockies). Once we start playing the bad teams like the Yankees, Blue Jays and Dodgers we should get right back on track.
Javier should hardly be considered a starter at this point. This was already questionable before the contract heading into '23. The organization kept pitching him start after start in '23 when his velocity dropped and had fatigue-related control issues and it's been downhill ever since. He probably needs an entire year of doing little/nothing ala Verlander to truly reset. JV had that awesome '22 after he chilled with Kate for a calender. Then, when he returns, he's prob still a 100 IP guy, long term. Bad contract. Terrible management of player after bad contract. Astros will try to survive. Arrighetti incoming.
This was destined to be a down year for the Astros as they feel compelled to start both LMJ an Javier to try and get their money's worth. #NotOurYear
We are seeing just how important depth is when it comes to pitching. They don't have to all be lights out, but they do need to be able to get you some innings with an era around 4. Right now --- without Brown and Hader, the depth has collapsed s everyone has basically had to be slotted up. FWIW I don't think that the Astros front office is completely surprised, because they wanted to add even more pitching after adding Burrows and Imai. They wanted another middling starter for innings and another long man in the pen. McCullers looks like a 3-4 inning pitcher, and Weiss has not been lights out but there has been some bad luck involved. Abreu will get better (if he isn't hurt), but who knows what happens with Hader going forward.... having someone like Blubaugh, France, Weiss or Alexander lock in and be a 5-6 inning pitcher with a 4.00 era would go a long way to stabilizing a lot of these problems.
Hunter with only 2 GP would hurt any team but Astros have more bullets, even minus Javier/Lance. This season is nowhere near over. It took 15 Astros injuries, Raleigh going Brady Anderson, and 2 major trades for Seattle to nip us by a couple games last year. Astros will be a Top 10 offense.
Even if Brown and Hader are out awhile there’s a path to Houston having a pre-JV 2017 level pitching staff. Imai is the ToR SP McCullers, Arrighetti, and Burrows avg 5ip per start with an era under 4.00; sometimes getting blown up and sometimes being dominant Weiss is a solid innings eater with 6ip per start and an era under 5. Bolton is 2025 Brandon Walter except stays healthy; 5-6ip per start with an era under 4.00 King, Okert, DLS, and Abreu are the late inning guys with Abreu maybe needing a short IL stint or demotion to reset. Teng, Blubaugh, and France are solid bulk RP to pick up when starters get knocked out early. Is all of that going to happen? Very unlikely. But some of it will, and there are other avenues that can help them (maybe Pecko or Ullola or Mayer break out, maybe Brown and Hader are only out until early May).
Yeah, obviously the injuries are a concern. As far as effectiveness goes, he was easily our third best option last season and the advanced stats backed that up. The eye test as well - he’s a lefty throwing 95-97 mph with a wipeout slider.
Easily his best season and his first full season at 30. I liked him last year too but I wouldn’t view him as a bullpen savior. In fact, after yet another injury, regression is a very realistic outcome and probably the best bet. Montero had “wipeout” stuff too. He was able to throw it consistently for 1 season.
Yeah, it's all about injuries Not the fact that JP FRANCE and BLUBAGH ABSOLUTELY BLOW These are painful levels of cope and delusion
