Reed is an acquired taste, total scorer and shooter but fatal flaws that he is not laterally quick and gambles too much. I doubt that unless he is a star many teams would be after him like the Rockets. I think Clingan and Castle are much more mainstream due to their potentially elite defense at times. Both Castle and Clingan hail from UConn, a defensive stalwart that has won the National Championship despite not having the best Offensive weapons in College. Dan Hurley has become a mastermind of UConn Huskies bball. UConn>Kentucky in the last 2 yrs.
I agree that Reed would be much better in a fast offense. Unfortunately, Ime wants to turn him into FVV.
I definitely give him a lot of credit for the skills you mentioned, but it's not as rare as you're implying. We've seen a number of guys recently who have roughly comparable skillsets (better at some aspects of offense than Reed, worse at others) become tweeners, where they're definitely good enough to play significant minutes on a contending team, but not good enough to be a core piece due to their defensive limitations. Front offices are valuing being a two-way player more than ever. Coby White and Collin Sexton getting swapped for each other and SRPs being the latest example of teams just not being that attached to plus-offense, minus-defense shot creating combo guards. Reed as he is now, I see more in that category than a true, starting-caliber point guard. But we do have to remember he's only 21, whereas those guys are in their mid/late 20s. It is more likely that he will improve than that he will just tread water. If he were doing what he is now, but shooting 42% from three instead of 39% -- sure. If he brought more rim pressure. If he were an average-or-better defensive player. If he were able to couple his very good shooting with very good, not just above-average playmaking. He's just missing a couple of ticks somewhere to be a starter on a contender. He'll probably add them. It would take more than a couple to get past "fringe all-star" level.
Conservative dog whistle, nice. If you can't demonstrate the truth of your claims, you're just making ignorant speculations. If Reed was a better defender who didn't get blown by half the time, he might have earned a bigger role sooner. If Sengun had been finishing at the rim more consistently and actually making free throws, he would be viewed more favorably. Don't make this about something it's not.
I think people have misunderstood the Reed Sheppard value proposition. I've said this since pre-draft. Reed is and was a star bet. I'm not saying he will be a star, or is even more than 15 or 20% likely to be one. But most of his value as a prospect comes from the nonzero possibility that there is a high-level offensive star in there. Transcendent offensive stars are the most valuable assets in the game. Reed's median outcome is well below a number of guys from the 2024 draft imo, and always was (Sarr, Clingan, Castle, Mitchell, Buzelis). But I think his upside is still the highest bc he still might be that guy, in a way those guys don't have the juice to be. Where he lands in a re-draft depends on what a team values in their situation. For us, I'm taking him above all those other players because we are still searching for that guy. Knowing in most futures the bet doesn't pay off.
For most tanking teams, if it's top 5 pick, it's the same rationale that we had. Upside / star probability first Upside + (some positional fit) if they landed a Wemby or Cade already. Positional fit (only), least likely. --- I'm still lurking on some of the current tanking teams, like the Wiz who is already multi year into the tanking. Wiz/Nets these teams are very much going after upside. So if redraft, can maybe do it with this underlying assumption, but now the guess is more educated since there are two seasons worth of data.
The Rockets roster do indeed for the most part lend itself to a fast paced running team. And the Miami (previously Memphis) style of everyone attacking probably works better for a lot of our roster, especially back when we still had Jalen and Cam. Sengun I think even may be good in that style, although I can't say cause he's turned into this Charle Barkley backing it in guy for so long, I feel I've forgotten what the original young cool Sengun was like. But yeah, it's clear Ime put his stamp on the team and made it JVG style, both the good and the bad. And in this style, Reed is basically Rafer Alston.
In the 2024 draft anyone with a decent star bet would have gone #1 easily, IMO. The perceived upside of all the prospects was so low it allowed Risacher to get drafted #1 and everyone basically shrugged their shoulders. Could you imagine Risacher getting drafted #1 in 2021 over Cade, Green, Mobley, and Kuminga? Everyone would have lost their minds. Risacher might not have even gone top ten in that year. It's great that you think Reed has that kind of star quality. I'm not sure the Rockets saw it as the same kind of swing for the fences. Maybe I'm misremembering but none of Stone's post-draft interviews made it seem like a star shot. Reed seemed like a Mike Conley in 2007 type pick, where you know the player is rock solid and going to be a contributor at the very least. Reed did not seem like a Trae Young in 2018 type pick, where his offense was either going to pop off in the league or he'd be a complete bust, with very little room in between those outcomes.
Don't have time to dig up the quotes but Stone said things like Reed was by far #1 on their board and they would have tried to trade the pick if they couldn't get him. There's that infamous quote from a reporter right after the Hawks made their pick where the Hawks were supposedly torn between Risacher and Reed and seemingly took Risacher as the safer option but viewed Reed as "a potential Patrick Mahomes-like prospect".
As to what the Rockets needed at the time of the draft. #5 pick. Ware has good upside, in my opinion. I know his motor may not be that great. Castle and Amen are similar, but that Castles will to win is what makes him stand out. Clingan and Sarr have some good upside as well. I think systems have helped a lot of these picks flourish and not look so great as well. For example Jared McCain 1. Castle 2. Sarr 3. Aj Mitchell 4. Ware 5. Sheppard/Clingan This is how I would've drafted, if I was gm of the Rockets at that time. I like Reed, I hope he develops more into an all around player. His shaky ball handling needs to improve, his assists should improve, and his defense has to improve drastically. Right now his position in this league will forever be Point guard. So he's going to have to make a conscious, effort on defense and ball handling. Love his shooting when he's on, but we will see more in the playoffs. Sink or swim, right
If the Rockets were dumb enough to pass on Reed, the Spurs would have jumped at the opportunity. They won't admit it, but they'd jump at an opportunity to trade Castle for Reed right now.
I remember that quote very clearly, but to me that speaks more to the quality of the draft rather than Reed's upside. Stone had never said he'd be willing to trade out of the draft before, which when picking top 3 seems like a pretty strong statement. Stone actually said in 2023 that he tried to trade up to draft Cam, which implies to me that he felt that draft was strong.
Reed has nothing in common with Kyle Korver and Ryan Anderson besides being white and a great outside shooter. He's best with the ball in his hands. Feel for the game, vision, ball handling, passing ability...midrange game...and, the ability to finish off the glass. It's all there...developing quickly. The kid doesn't need to be Nash.... He just needs to be Reed Sheppard, and will start up top for a long time here...with Amen at his side.
and see, i think hes brought Reed along very well... when u consider how shaky Reed's confidence was and how he was icing his knees... I mean he coulda left him out there to be hunted before he found his confidence...
