The best kind of season is the surprise season, where you have very low expectations and things come together - not saying that is happening, but there is a slow growing feeling. DD
If Cole is anywhere near his normal self when he returns, they are going to be really good. Cole, Fried, Rodon and Schlittler is a tough matchup.
OK, listened. I’d probably still choose Walker because we still have so many questions in the lineup, so a third elite hitter after Yordan and Parades would be magnificent, and the gap from my expectations (80-90 OPS+) to career year (130+ OPS+) is so huge (and I agree that is why Yordan isn’t the choice … career and expectations are too similar). But you make a great case for McCullers - a second ace after Hunter would be unbelieveable. But I guess I assume we will have top 5-10 pitching anyway, so having top 1-5 isn’t as much as a step as the possible bottom third offense to top half that a superstar Walker might create. Good question either way.
It’s a fun game right? and that’s the thing about this years astros, they have so many questions around them but if you look at track record there can be some really good answers to all those things- as evidenced by our thought experiment. Huge beta to this season. i pick Yainer as hitter because I’m most bearish on what he’s becoming, but if you thought Walker was going to be a 100 ops+ guy then he’s the right answer, probably. Altuve and Correa being all stars and mvp types as a guarantee would be a lot of fun. Yordan hitting 50 or something like that would be fun. But yeah, if LMJ is an ace this team’s floor is playoffs and its likely upside would be 100-105 wins.
Loperfido has had an unsustainable BABIP last season and so far this season. However with it has also come a greatly improved K rate. Even with a corrected BABIP there are signs he could be a solid hitter right now, still very early .
I haven’t looked at exit velocity stats, but he hits the ball damn hard. Is it possible that a higher BABIP is ‘normal’ for him?
He does hit the ball hard and he’s got great speed so he should be able to sustain a higher than normal BABIP; he do throughout the minors. But it’s not gonna be >.430 like it was last year and this year in the majors. He might be able to post a .330 BABIP over a sustained period during the rest of his 20s. I am super happy about Loperfido’s performance but we should all brace ourselves for a correction there. His xwOBA is .263 vs his actual of .421 points to a boatload of good luck so far. But if he is able to maintain a k rate <25%, he will be a good player, either as a strong side platoon or everyday guy.
Through 9 games here’s the level each guy is producing at in terms of fWAR: Peak Hall of Famer: Alvarez, Altuve MVP: Smith, Walker All-Star: Loperfido, Vazquez Solid regular: Correa, Paredes, Pena Fringe regular: Diaz, Allen Bench player: Matthews AAA player: Whitcomb, Meyers Yordan, Walker, Loperfido, and Allen are due BABIP regression. Correa has a low BABIP which should mean he is getting unlucky so far.
