No he would not be, for the same reason that if you said "Moses Moody or Brandon Podziemski for all star" nobody would take you seriously.
And to be very clear, if we took Castle and the Spurs took Reed, playing next to Wemby, on a more favored team by the NBA league office...he'd already be at over 20ppg on 45% 3pt shooting with how wide open he would be with all the gravity Wemby commands.
Didn't vote because it's still depends on who's picking and what they value. I actually think Sarr would go 1st for most teams in a redraft, mostly because he's still kind of a unicorn with most upside that the team tanking for the 1st pick would prefer. But even then you can argue Castle being the safest bet, or Reed being the best shooter, Clingan being the best defender, etc. I don't think Reed has ever been a bad pick at 3, just think in retrospect he's a bad pick for Ime the coach. If he were in a Kerr/D'Antoni/Malone system, I think he'd look a lot better. And this is speaking as someone who don't think Kerr's system is all that amazing. But it would be amazing for Reed.
Not sure about 20 ppg, but Reed would look good with Wemby. I think there is a decent chance his efficiency skyrockets, but his scoring rate doesn't change much.
Really? Moody shoots 40% from 3 on 6.3 a game. Podziesmski is at 37% on 5. Reed is 39% on 7. That is not that much different! And defensively he is way way worse. This is very important because there is this guy Steph Curry who is there who as the "small guard who can shoot from anywhere but is defensively vulnerable" role. Not only would Reed not be an all star in golden state., he'd probably be further down in the rotation behind the bigger guards because he and Steph would get absolutely roasted on defense, which is the only way that team can stay in games.
Wemby augments every single player on SAS. He is the ultimate back stop. Rockets don't have the luxury.
Reed has a VORP of 2.3 this season Moody has a VORP of 0.7 this season Pods has a VORP of 1.3 this season Steph Curry has a VORP of 2.3 this season Funny how numbers disagree with narratives.
Yes, really - because Reed does more than both of them with and without the ball. He makes everyone better, when he is on the floor. DD
I do agree on that the defense would likely be untenable with Curry and Reed. However, you are giving Curry no credit in helping get Moody and Podz easier shoots, but counting Curry's defense against Reed. I'm not too sure on Moody as he may actually have become a great shooter. Reed is shooting a 3 about 33% more often than Podz on a per minute basis, has a huge difference in percentage, and takes more difficult shots. Podz when I've seen him looks like an okay shooter that get great looks without the need to take harder shots. I get the defense has been hard to maintain without a center with Reed, but I would like a run with a small ball center to see how the offense would look with an 5-out offense with Reed.
man I can’t believe you are arguing that Moody and Podz are better than Reed. Moody is just a role player. Moody was a league average shooter until last season (yr4). Podz is better, but no one is confusing him for a future star. Reed has a higher upside than both and is already a better shooter than both in just yr2. GS got themselves two really good role players. Nothing wrong with that given where they were drafted. Reed still has star potential. We’ll know for sure in a year or two. GS would trade both for Reed in a heartbeat.
Ok, whatever, we can all pretend Reed is going to be a all star (which would probably have required scoring 25 points a game, minimum) on a miserable sub .500 Warriors team that he doesn't really fit into or need any other small guards - I apologize for interrupting the @DaDakota magical thinking train.
Most likely outcome is somewhere in between here I think? It's likely Reed will get better than he is now (not guaranteed though, see: Jalen Green). But it's still hard to envision a future where he regularly makes all-star games, given his obvious defensive flaws and lack of elite playmaking. He has one skill that profiles as maybe being elite if he improves it, which is obviously his shooting. I think for him to be more than a fringe all-star, he either needs to massively improve on defense/playmaking or he needs to go beyond just being an elite shooter and get into that Curry level "best shooter in basketball" territory. If he doesn't improve in one of those areas he's not even a starter on a championship caliber team, he's more of a 6th man. If he gets moderately better at one or more of his skills, which I think is likely, he'll fall somewhere in that starter/fringe all-star range. To take a huge leap in any particular area and become a perennial all-star would be a much less likely outcome.
I don’t know about perennial all star - there are not many of those guys. However I think you are both under estimating his shooting talent from the perimeter and playmaking. He isn’t some guy camped in the corner or even at the top of the key waiting for wide open shots. He is taking and making shots off the dribble 3-4 feet beyond the three point line and he is also stepping back on shots. Even we he receives a pass for a shot, he isn’t getting the kind of looks guys get off of a Harden or Edwards drive and kick because of terrible spacing and a lack of penetration threats. These are shots he is largely manufacturing himself. As a playmaker he has shown he is deadly in transition (which Udoka doesn’t help) and has shown he can create for others. Defensively, if the lane is protected- it won’t be an issue. His height and length is not ideal for sure and he doesn’t draw enough fouls because he tries to avoid contact to shoot- he has to improve at that.
Good post and completely agree. I think Udoka's coaching style and the roster we are trying to balance is a big reason for Reed's perceived value. Honestly I think Houston would be a FAR more dangerous team if we had a more mobile rim running defensive first big in place of Sengun because I think Amen, Reed, and Jabari would all be lot more valuable playing in a 7 seconds or less style offense. Combine that with guys like Amen, Reed, and Tari poking balls loose creating transition opportunities and this team would be VERY dangerous team built to turn mistakes into quick offense and otherwise a solid half court defensive team. Offensively we still need a guy who can get a bucket in the half court - a Joe Johnson instant offense kind of guy kind of like how KD plays for us today. I think where we struggle today is in: - having two players who can't shoot on the court at once(Amen and Sengun) - having four players who get a lot of minutes don't get up and down the floor quickly (KD, Sengun, Fred, Stevo) - lacking a rim protector so Amen/Tari/Reed can gamble a bit more and it not turn into an immediate paint score If we had a way to trade Sengun for Bam - I would be into that...but Miami probably wouldn't. Back to point though - Reed would probably thrive in a system like that. One of his strengths as a PG is look ahead passes and because we play so slow there aren't a lot of opportunities for that. I think Reed and Jabari in particular would thrive there because they both are such good shooters historically that they know how to take advantage of defenses struggling to matchup in transition and making hard closeouts...it would also help them establish a rhythm in slumps because those are the kinds of reps that built their reputation in the first place. Amen would improve because he is already a terror at getting to the rim and converting at a high level but that's significantly easier in transition than in a half court set. Tari is frankly better in chaos than he is in order - his reaction/improvisation/motor is basically the only high level thing he does on the court. I will say I do like the idea of Sengun playing in that Draymond high post facilitator role but it would require off ball screening that Ime doesn't really do much but again the issue with Sengun is he needs to be a higher level rim protector to unlock the defensive pressure guys like Amen, Reed, and Tari can put on guards to open up those transition opportunities.
I don’t think they would. We have to remember that DD was in love with KPJ and Cam as well. At least, he’s being hyperbolic about a guy that has a chance to be really good. No GM in basketball would build around Reed. He has a couple of steps before he is a sure-fire starter for a competitive team much less perennial all-star. He might get to a decent starter next year, if FVV gets hurt next year. Otherwise, he’s going to slave away on the Rocket bench for another year. Reed is a great shooter, so was Kyle Korver or, once upon a time, Ryan Anderson. The rest of his skillset needs developing and physical limitations could put a ceiling on how good he can become. We all wish he becomes a modern day Steve Nash, but the odds are against it.
