Extend Brown & Pena (with a huge year) Ride out the Altuve & Correa deals (won’t waive his no-trade and who would want that contract). Trade Alvarez, Paredes, Meyers, Hader, Walker (if any value exists), Abreu, etc Develop Cam, Blubaugh, Matthews, Cole, etc
The problem with your plan is that players need to agree to extensions. 1) Crane needs to update his "6 year rule" and get with the times. Extensions need to happen at least a year before arbitration. Once the offseason before arbitration hits, a star player has secured enough wealth to bet on himself. He needs to look at 6+ year extensions that cover at least 4 seasons of current control. They need to be trying to extend Cam right now. And as long as Altuve and Correa are on this team they need to attempt to contend. That means keeping Yordan because he's simply too good to trade. Gotta ride it out with him until at least trade deadline of his walk year. Every other star level player trade the offseason before FA. Hopefully they can compile/develop enough talent to continue contending. If not do a full rebuild once Jose and Carlos are done and join the front office.
I only have one question. Has it worked for teams who have given out extended contracts over 6 years?
Running down current expectations for outcomes of Houston’s best young players: Cam Smith: 2nd division CF Joey Loperfido: 1st division bench player/3rd division everyday OF Brice Matthews: 2nd division 2B/CF Mike Burrows: SP3 Kai-Weng Teng: enigmatic bulk reliever AJ Blubaugh: elite setup man Roddery Munoz: AAAA RP Christian Roa: AAAA RP Zach Dezenzo: 2nd division bench player Zach Cole: enigmatic 3rd division everyday OF/1st division bench OF Spencer Arrighetti: SP4 Miguel Ullola: enigmatic leverage RP Hudson Leach: 7th inning RP Ethan Pecko: SP4 Walker Janek: 2nd division everyday C Joseph Sullivan: 4th OF Lucas Spence: 5th OF Bryce Mayer: SP4 James Hicks: SP6 Alonzo Tredwell: SP5 Jackson Nezuh: AAAA RP Ethan Frey: 2nd division everyday corner OF Cole Hertzler: SP4 Parker Smith: SP6 Xavier Neyens: 3rd division everyday corner IF Kevin Alvarez: 2nd division everyday corner OF Javier Perez: SP5 Nick Potter: enigmatic leverage RP
There are a lot of very high ceiling prospects in the system, just not any that project as likely to become an elite big leaguer. I think if I were setting the o/u on number of players currently in Houston’s farm that will become perennial 3+ fwar/yr players, I would put it at 3.5. Kevin Alvarez and Ethan Frey have a chance to jump into that elite territory if they have very good offensive years and show they will at least be passable on the grass; they both have the kind of complete offensive profile that could have them projecting as top players. Neyens has a lot of strikeout and defense risk but if he posts a k rate <25% with signs that he will get to his power potential then he could make that jump as well.
Alvarez and Hader have full no trade clauses. They will be very difficult if not impossible to trade. Walker has a partial no-trade clause and his performance so far has lowered his value such that he doesn’t make sense to trade. Assuming everybody hits their projections and Houston sneaks into the playoffs, my prescription would be: Trade Pena this offseason. He will have an extremely high value (similar to Tucker) and he’s not signing a team friendly extension. The goal would be to add 2 MLB Top ~75 prospects plus another decent prospect. Discuss extensions for Brown, Alvarez, and Paredes. Explore trades for Diaz, Meyers, and Javier. Don’t give them away, but if you can get value back, do it. Target high end free agents and overpay them on shorter deals (ideally 1-2 years). Luis Arraez, Brandon Lowe, JP Crawford (if Pena is traded), Daulton Varsho, Zach Gallen, Casey Mize, and Trevor Rogers would be my initial list of targets. DO NOT TRADE YOUR GOOD POSITION PLAYER PROSPECTS The plan would be to field 88-95 win teams in 2027 and 2028 while you rebuild the farm system. Trading Pena plus the 2026 draft and developing existing prospects should result in an above average system starting next year and a bubble of talent that should start arriving in 2028-2029. Imai, Paredes, and Pena (if not traded) would be QO candidates to add to the 2027/2028 draft capital if the same system is in place under the next CBA.
I would bet on Frey, Alvarez and one of the pitchers to be at a Tucker, Goldschmidt level and one of the pitchers will turn out to be a healthy Garcia type on the low end and a Brown type of he reaches his ceiling.
Hypothetical 2027-2028 Roster: RF Smith DH Alvarez 3B Correa LF Brandon Lowe ($74M/3yrs plus vesting options, bonuses, and opt-outs) 2B Altuve 1B Walker (extended for $16M/1yr for 2028) CF Loperfido/Matthews platoon SS TBD prospect added via trade C Janek Bench: Allen, Jake Rogers ($18M/2yrs), Cole SP: Brown, Burrows, Shota Imanaga ($66M/3yrs with opt outs), Arrighetti, Pecko RP: Hader, Blubaugh, Javier, King, Sousa, Ullola, Wesneski, Blanco Traded: Diaz, Paredes, Pena, Meyers Farm system would likely be ranked in the 8-12 range of the league.
I think you meant to put Ullola at the top of the starting pitching list (or right below cy young winning Hunter brown) but the rest looks like it could be accurate.
