[War] Trump surrenders to Iran in a humiliating defeat

Another pattern - Trump calms the market the night before a potential massive sell-off with these statements (lies or whatever), and as they go stale from repetition, he seems to find new ways to broadcast even better news... so instead of a massive one-day drop, it's been a gradual decline. I guess you can credit him for avoiding a worldwide panic sell-off (or side hustle).

@B-Bob there's a disconnect, but people / traders are trying to stay hopeful for a resolution?

 

I don't think you do. Anyone can post a clip of Pulp Fiction

 

This is just minutes after a NYTimes story about how Trump wants to end the war through negotiations was published. I have no love for Iran, but how could anyone even consider negotiating with this guy in good faith? Also, just straight up talking war crimes.

 

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One minute he wants to seize Kharg Island, the next seize Iran's oil and uranium, and the next he wants to blow it all up. My guess is Hegseth would love to blow them all away, but Trump wants nothing more than to take all their oil and uranium. Meanwhile, our troops dangle in the background, wishing they were back home with their families and safe from the madness of our Commander and Chief and his twisted inexperienced Secretary of War.

 

our trick under this POS pedophile regime is to do fake negotiations or fake ceasefires and then attack anyways

no nation can trust a word we say…Trump’s stupid ass is the one who ripped up the Iran agreement in the 1st place

 

History will not be kind to Trump or Trump's cult like supporters.

History will also not be kind to the entrenched, think tank experts who sane wash Trump. The end effect is to normalize Trump, instead calling Trump what he is: dumb, profoundly ignorant and generally incompetent.

Behind closed doors, Trump knows nothing. He thinks he can pivot at any point, blame someone else and proceed to the next mess of his own creation.

 

One more month of this chaos and cratering poll numbers and I expect Trump to get the ball rolling on Martial Law.

 

It's all part of the plan. Worrying about killing civilians is "woke" crap. Hegseth wants to minimize that mentality and wants to be able to give illegal orders to troops without anyone questioning his authority sent to him by God.

 

disgusting

if any Dem candidate isn’t making holding these vile, wicked, pieces of dog sh*t accountable to the maximum extent and in a swift manner as well, don’t even bother entering the primaries

you tried to play patty cakes and do kumbaya after the Civil War…you did it again after Jan 6th…you can not do it now

 

this obese, low IQ, smooth brain, demented gremlin who sh*ts his diaper is cooked

years from now, a whole bunch of these MAGAt supporters will be trying to save face, and it won’t work

 

or drop a Nuke

Rocket River

 

This is why I've said the best thing he can do is just pull out completely, and let the middle east deal with cleaning up the aftermath on their own.

The major issue with that is that you'll be leaving Israel in a compromised state given that the iron dome seems to be running out of munitions with more and more drones getting through. Israel being "abandoned" is a narrative that probably helps him with the Tucker Carlson wing of his base, but potentially hurts him with his larger evangelical loyal Republican base.

With a large deployment of troops to the region, I would bet that he isn't going to just leave like he should, but will feel like they have to do a limited ground invasion and try to secure the strait from the ground which I don't think will work. Trump's natural instinct IMO is to do something drastic, and then just walk away claiming to solve something he didn't really follow through on. This style goes all the way back to his real estate days where he'd walk into a meeting with his team, drop a figurative bomb in the room, get up leaving everyone scratching their heads, and let all of his employees fight amongst each other till they figured it out.

Trump reverting back to his natural instincts would probably suit him best. I assume Kegsbreath, little Marco, and The Raising Canes guy are taking advantage of Trump being diminished and tying his hands a bit more so they can go kick some a$$. I think they have him worked up about "taking the oil", and now he's deadset on getting troops in to "take the oil" even though there is no way to actually do that beyond the tankers already in the strait which is very limited. If Trump sends troops to "take" the Iranian oilfields they will just be sitting there with their d$cks in their hands waiting to get shot at.

 

just pull out and keep on selling Israel weapons even though I would love not to. The issue is that Iran’s hard liners are actually in a better place than they were before we invaded. The dad is a martyr, the more hardline son is in power, they control the strait and wants to charge a toll, and the Iran people sees that the US can even help them. We will appear weak, we alienated our alllies even more, and everyone will be running away from the dollar. Maybe that is game plan all along. They want to weaken the dollar to make manufacturing more attractive in the US.

 

If he tweets that things are going great often enough, he seems to think people will start to believe it. After all, that approach worked when it came to convincing a large portion of the country to distrust science.

 

This administration don't have a game plan, but I've heard MAGA supporters point to this, because they don't have anything else. It's their way of coping of a country going to crap with Trump's actions. Same argument was used with the Tariffs, claiming it was designed to ruin the economy so the fed has to lower interest rates, so they can carry over the debt with a lower interest rate.

Trump playing with crayons isn't 4D chess.

 

Usually I would say there is not a plan with anything Trump does, just a constant need to do something outlandish to feed the next Trump show reality TV episode.

However in this case with Iran, we cannot lose sight of the fact that Trump was willing to go to jail in 2021 and 22 to withhold classified documents he stole regarding Iran that Jack Smith believed to be part of a "business interest."

So I do tend to believe there is a huge grift here, and that's why he didn't in this case just drop some bombs, declare victory, and move onto trans athletes, or Rosie O'Donnell, or whatever.

Jared Kushner being at the center of this all leads me to believe that there is a huge business interest with MBS, and the Saudi's that'll make him billions. MBS wants the Saudi's to be the king of the middle east, and control all oil exports in the region. Bibi is the 3rd player here, and I'm sure he's happy to support that since he doesn't really care about the Saudi's today even though just like with the Soviets, and the US after WW2, the deal that was made after WW2 set in motion the inevitable clash between super powers.

If the goal here is Saudi, and Israeli shared dominance in the region, I think that's a recipe for future disaster, but it's one that Trump, MBS, and Bibi are willing to live with today to get rich quick.

....

So what does this mean about what Trump is going to do this week:

I heard Jon Bolton earlier today say that he believes Trump is solely fixated on oil prices, and the Strait of Hormuz. I believe he is right about that, and I think Trump is sending troops to try and secure the sites for which they believe Iran would be operating attacks on ships to control the Strait. However I DO NOT believe the assurance Trump gives them even in the best outcomes of that land operation, will matter much to the ship captains AND the Insurance providers who will still say the risk is too great.

-Trump wants the price of oil to go down so he doesn't get clobbered in the mid-terms due to inflation
-Trump obviously has some deal in place with MBS and Bibi and it's unclear when those obligations will be met if ever

Those two key factors will lead us into a pretty precarious few weeks. He cannot get a negotiation with Iran that'll free up the Strait because there is nobody to negotiate with because "Epic Fury" was too successful, and left nobody but hardliners. Ground troops will be sitting ducks, and be the worlds most expensive and dangerous naval security force. And there is no telling when if ever Trump will have met his obligations to MBS, and Bibi so at any point Trump will just keep on having to play wackamole with new regime after new regime in Iran to ensure his partners they are in control, and Iran is a failed state who cannot operate any sort of competitive petrochemical operation.

 

A month from now, Trump will be saying "no one told me that the troops would be sitting ducks".

 

Except it's not real.