Last year these moves for this last 2 games of ST ended up not being predictive of anything, but it’s odd to me that Caden Powell and Javier Perez were brought back to Houston for this game. Both guys played in A ball last year so having them start in Corpus would be skipping a level. But if they are gonna be sent to Asheville then why have them travel all the way to Houston for 2 meaningless games. Just seems weird. If either of those guys actually does start the season in AA it would be a big boost to their stock. Minor league rosters should be released tomorrow or Thursday. There are 26 pitchers currently on the Sugar Land roster so something is gonna have to give there.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sp...ueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter Pretty good article on the farm. Astros farm director name checks C Jason Schiavone along with Anthony Huezo and Caden Powell as prospects who he thinks are going to break out. Schiavone had a really good season last year built almost entirely around a huge walk rate. He struck out a ton and didn’t hit for much power but still managed a wRC+ of 121 in Fayetteville.
Gotta think that Kenni Gomez going back to Fayetteville is a reset-button move after a tough year in Asheville. Welcome back, Camilo Diaz. He received the biggest bonus ($2.25 million) in the Astros’ 2023 IFA class. Diaz has some rust to shake off as he missed all of 2025 due to injury. He has huge power potential when healthy, but he's got big questions about the hit tool as well. The pitchers look unspectacular, but I think it's a solid group. I'm thinking the rotation here is gonna be Gabel Pentecost, Jesus Carrera, Jagger Beck, Ryan Verdugo, and Charlie Weber. Weber was a multi-inning reliever last year; I wonder if he gets a chance to start again.
Very strong roster everywhere except catcher. Good to see Camilo Diaz is back, he is a deep sleeper but very high ceiling player. My guess at an opening day lineup: LF Huezo 2B Monistere RF Alvarez SS Neyens CF Gomez 1B Sierra DH Ochoa 3B Diaz C Flores Bench: Ramirez, Wakefield, Trujillo, Salas, Forrester
This is… not a great roster. The rotation with Mayer, Nezuh, Hicks, Dombroski should be pretty good, but everywhere else except for Janek (I guess) and 2/3 of the outfield (Spence and Sullivan) is… yeesh.
That is possibly one of the worst AA infields of any organization in the last like 10 years. Gross. Although Encarnacion has some upside with his speed. No Alonzo Tredwell on the pitching staff, must be hurt, not good. CF Spence RF Sullivan C Janek 1B Bush LF Baez 3B Nelson DH Guillemette SS Ferreras 2B Encarnacion
Full rosters. Looks like Tyler Whitaker will also be on the AA roster, big opportunity for him to get back on the radar. Players with full season experience not on a roster: C: Carlos Cauro IF: Reylin Perez, Wilton Lara, Jeron Williams, Edwin Diaz, Waner Luciano OF: Mason Lytle P: Alonzo Tredwell, Ethan Pecko, Glenn Otto, Julio Rodriguez, Juan Bello, Nico Zeglin, Garrett Apker, Jose Varela, Raimy Rodriguez, Rafael Gonzalez, Sandy Mejia, Juan Nunez, Julio Marte, Ryan Mathieson, Grant Burleson, Danny Trehey
Should be room for ~8 guys on the FCL roster to be promoted from the DSL. Houston is well under the 165 man limit even without putting anymore guys on the 60 day minor league IL. The Astros were very conservative with these opening day assignments. The AAA lineup is almost entirely AAAA non-prospects, which is not an issue except for the fact that the AA infield is so bare. This is all temporary, I expect the draft in July to be heavy on college position players, but until then the upper levels are very weak. The lower levels are pretty stacked and should win a lot of games out of the gate. With Matthews making the big league roster, ZERO players from the top 10 rounds of the 2023 draft are on an active minor league roster in Houston's system. 1. 2B Brice Matthews MLB 2. P ALonzo Tredwell (hurt?) 3. P Jake Bloss traded 4. OF Cam Fisher busted 5. IF Chase Jaworsky traded 6. P Ethan Pecko (hurt?) 7. P Joey Dixon (hurt?) 8. IF Ryan Johnson released 9. IF Jeron Williams (hurt?) 10. IF Austin Deming released
The Astros farm director mentioned Pecko was hurt on Chandler Rome's podcast the other day. My recollection was that he implied it was a minor thing that will delay his start to the season by a few weeks.
Forcucci, Treadwell, and Pecko missing off rosters has to be the biggest takeaway from the roster releases. Neyens and Alvarez starting in Fayetteville is reasonably aggressive, but they sort of telegraphed those decisions. I was hoping Fraide would make the Fayetteville roster as well, but I haven't heard much about him this spring. There's usually somebody who pitches their way out of A ball after a few starts anyways.
Spoiler: Snake Diggit's Astros Top 30 Prospects: 2026 Opening Day 2B/OF Brice Matthews 50+: I think at this point he's underrated and won't be surprised if he gets ROY votes this year. OF Kevin Alvarez 50+: Excellent sign that he was brought over and assigned to full season ball; a good season will have him as an MLB Top 75 prospect. 3B Xavier Neyens 50+: I think he was one of the 15 best players in the draft, and his assignment to Fayetteville is a good sign, but he may not have success right away as he adjusts to pro ball; if he has success, he will be a firm Top 100 prospect. C Walker Janek 50: Looked good in AFL and ST, his stock is pointing slightly up; big test/opportunity in AA. OF Ethan Frey 50: High ceiling prospect who got a lot of hype over the offseason; if he makes quick work of Asheville and excels in Corpus he will be a Top 100 prospect. P AJ Blubaugh 45+: Would not shock me if he finishes this season as an established leverage RP but also has a high floor as a multi-inning MR or BoR SP. OF Zach Cole 45+: The k rate still points strongly to him busting, but his ceiling is too high to ignore. P Miguel Ullola 45+: Didn't have a great spring but I'm still in. Best fastball of any player in Houston's system outside of Hunter Brown. Still young enough to get the walks under control. P Bryce Mayer 45+: Potential MoR SP. P Ethan Pecko 45+: Dinging him for his current injury but his AAA innings and associated savant data looked really, really good. I'm very very high on him if he isn't seriously injured. OF Joseph Sullivan 45+: Stock has cooled a little bit and didn't do much in the big league ST games, but he is still a decent prospect. P Ryan Forcucci 45+: I'm still being patient with him but if he doesn't show well by the end of this season his stock will slide fast. P Alonzo Tredwell 45+: Looked great in AA last year but is hurt; if its serious his stock will plummet. P Cole Hertzler 45+: Appears to be healthy and could shoot up if he gets to AA this year. OF Anthony Huezo 45+: Big power/speed combo with k concerns; got a lot of hype in the offseason. C Jase Mitchell 45: Betting on Dana Brown; mildly disappointed he wasn't assigned to Fayetteville but his position is working against him. OF Lucas Spence 45: Very solid sample in AA in his first full season. Projects as a bench player or fringe regular, but he's a real prospect. IF Albert Fermin 45: Top 30 int'l signing, will take a couple years before we know what he is. OF/IF Caden Powell 45: Huge power/speed combo and got some hype in the offseason but the move out of the infield is a bad sign for his defensive value. C/1B Will Bush 45: Very good 100 pa sample in AA to end last season. P Jackson Nezuh 45: Really liked the reduced walk rate after he got back from injury. 2026 breakout candidate but didn't really show up in ST. P James Hicks 45: Healthy again, profiles as the type of pitcher who gets called up and holds his own as an SP 5/6 similar to Gusto/Gordon last year. OF Luis Baez 45: Had a good finish to last season. Still risky due to defensive limitations but the big bat potential is obviously still there. P Hudson Leach 45 P Nick Potter 40+: Huge stuff but control risk P Gabel Pentecost 40+ P Javier Perez 40+: very good numbers last season P Parker Smith 40+ P Ramsey David 40+ IF Nick Monistere 40+: Assignment to Low A was a bad sign. Other grade 40+: C: Collin Price, Garret Guillemette, Jason Schiavone IF: Riley Unroe, Yamal Encarnacion, Alberto Hernandez, Alejandro Nunez, Kyle Walker, Max Holy, Sami Manzueta, Randy Arias, Anderson Areinamo, Camilo Diaz, German Ramirez, Zach Daudet OF: Tyler Whitaker, Justin Thomas, Cesar Hernandez, Anthony Millan, Kenni Gomez, Nehomar Ochoa, Juan Sierra, Luis Rives, Chase Call P: Jose Fleury, Alimber Santa, Trey Dombroski, Michael Knorr, Joey Mancini, Luis Rodriguez, Dylan Howard, Nolan DeVos, Andrew Taylor, Juan Bello, Jhoster Baez, Jagger Beck, Kellen Oakes, Alex Santos II, Brett Gillis, Jayden Murray, Leomar Rosario, Juan Fraide, Raimy Rodriguez, Nico Zeglin, Omar Damian Honorable Mention: C: Yosweld Vasquez, Arturo Flores, Alexi Quiroz, Carlos Cauro IF: Landon Arroyos, Pascanel Ferreras, Jeron Williams, Sandro Pereira, Santiago Martinez OF: Elijah Farley, DJ Newman, Ethan Wagner, Karniel Pratt, Roiner Quintana, Ariel Lebron, Eduardo Perez, Imanol Feliz, Jack Valbrune, Amauri Ramirez P: All of them Overall in this system, the Pitching and Catchers are average, OF are above average, IF are horrible. I still think this farm is only 2 elite prospects away from being above average overall and I expect it to be an average system by the end of the year.
Zach Cole homered in his first at bat for sugar land tonight. Cesar Salazar cleared waivers. Houston re-signed Peter Lambert to another minor league deal. Cole is literally the only legitimate position player prospect on the AAA roster but overall they have a very good AAA lineup. If Corpus can overachieve all 4 of Houston’s farm team have a good shot to post winning records this year.
Colton Gordon allowed a run on a solo homer, two other hits, and struck out four in five innings for Sugar Land. He'll probably get a few starts in Houston again this season.
Sugar Land jumped out to a 7-0 lead after two innings and cruised to an 8-1 win over Round Rock to take their first series of the season.
AAA starting pitching depth (Arrighetti, Gordon, Lambert, Alexander, France) could be the main difference between last year and this year for the Astros. All 5 of those guys have had some measure of success in the majors already and could come up and help the big league club. Unlike last year where they had to call Blubaugh and Gordon when they were untested.
The top 6 of that lineup isn’t bad at all, and I have come off my negativity around the AA infield a little. Yamal Emcarnacion is a decent 2B prospect. He has one of the best combinations of speed and contact ability in the system. If he can refine his defense and develop just enough power to keep pitchers honest, he could be a decent player. He is just slightly lesser in profile than somebody like Tony Kemp was when he was in AA. Pascanel Ferreras is also not a terrible prospect. He has a bench player ceiling, but he was a league average bat in AA last year. I’ve seen blurbs from scouts that say he has potential average game power, and if he can get to that while staying viable across the diamond, he might be a decent player. He is probably best projected at 2B and 3B rather than SS. SS is where the weakness is. I have had relatively high hopes at one point or another for both Tommy Sacco and Jeron Williams, but at this point both guys are non-prospects. The other infielders on the roster are James Nelson and Trevor Austin. Nelson is interesting based on his past power potential and monster numbers in Indy ball, but at 28 it is nothing but a bad sign for the Astros that they have the opening to even give him a shot. Austin is a fine minor league bench player and might post the lowest swinging strike rate in the system, but he’s too passive at the plate, doesn’t have much defensive value, and doesn’t have any power. Tyler Whitaker is also on the roster and has played some infield in the past, but most likely he is an OF and he’s not more than a deep deep sleeper at this point given the hole in his swing and poor numbers in A ball. Mainly Im hopeful that Encarnacion can have a bit of a breakout.
