https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/articl...2025-as-start-of-draft-streaks-172641425.html "The streak attaches to the original team, according to league sources. In other words, if Team A has Team B’s pick in the 2027 draft as a result of a trade and that Team B pick lands first, then Team B’s own pick in 2028 would not be eligible to land first, whether it’s retained by Team B or owned by a different team. But Team A, by virtue of selecting first using Team B’s pick in 2027, would still be eligible to pick first in 2028 with its own pick or any other team’s pick." The Wiz pick can't go 1 and the Jazz can't go top 5 if the 321 lottery is passed. The Nets and the Suns both easily could end up as 3 ping pong ball teams. With Utah and the Wiz picks out, that could raise odds at 1st overall pick to just under 20% for the Rockets.
I think you're being a little dramatic. While scouting younger players has come a long way, it's still difficult to predict how kids will mature and perform once they get into college. Let's see if we do anything to get into this draft, I know you have your fav, before we even worry about next year's crop of prospects.
Of course I’m kidding. They obviously have value. But they don’t have a lot of value. Consider that we were probably hoping Brooklyn landed in the bottom 4, which would have given us a 48% at a top 4 pick. But under the new rules we’d probably be looking at maybe half those odds at a top 4 pick (and that includes both picks combined)…in a much much weaker draft. Trading out of the 2025 and 2026 drafts was a terrible decision and objectively I can’t understand how folks could see it otherwise. To be clear, we could not trade both 2027 picks for a top 7 pick in this draft. No team woukd give up their top 7 pick for both of our 2027 picks. And that says a lot. I would say there is an insignificant chance we get a franchise player out of the 2027 draft with those picks.
The 2025 draft pick was 10th in a non-deep draft. There is no guarantee that the Nets would finish in the bottom 7 this year without tanking. The Rockets have 4 chances to get a significant pick out of the trade. Odds are, one of them will land in the Top 3 and you will just call it luck when it happens.
hey I hope u are right. I was refering to the Nets 2025 pick, not the Suns. The pick we traded back to them. That pick could have landed us Flagg, VJ, Harper, Kon, etc. just like this 2026 pick could have landed us a franchise player. But honestly I should move past that trade since it’s done. I do not have a high degree of confidence that we will land a top 3 pick with the rest of the picks from that trade given the new flattened lotto odds. But I do hope u are right.
Sorry, 8th pick, but it would likely have been around 10th if they weren't trying to lose. You say this as if the flattened odds would hurt the Rockets' acquired picks. It looks like Stone is doing good work to make the odds help the Rockets. The picks acquired had much better odds of landing Top 3 than the actual picks traded by a lot, without factoring in that Brooklyn would not have tanked. The flattening likely improves those odds. With the Nets pick 2027, the Rockets will likely have odds better than 50% in ending up in Top 3 in either 2027 or 2029 as long as one of those picks ends up in the 3 ping pong ball range.
You guys don’t understand the new rules….we got hosed and will likely be picking in the late teens early twenties in the weakest draft in a decade with Stone making the picks. Woo hoo!!!!!!!!!
respectfully that math does not add up for me. And if u look at nba rosters it’s very easy to make the case that the Nets have the worst roster in the league. So we now have to hope that they stay out of that penalty zone with the new lotto system. I don’t know how one can assume that both those 2027 picks end up with 8% odds at #1. There’s a good chance neither of those picks ends up with 8% odds at #1. That Nets pick was likely to end up at least mid-lotto if we had kept it. And now even if we wanted to we couldn’t trade both 2027 picks to get into the mid-lotto of this 2026 draft. It would probably take 3 picks.
Unfortunately, I don't see even one guy who screams "future superstar" in the 2027 draft class. It would be just our luck (like in 2024) to once again move up in a draft class only to not get a premium talent because the draft class sucks. Who do y'all like out of that class so far? I was messing around with mock drafts and scouting reports and video a bit and did not come away impressed. Tyran Stokes looks similar to Amen with his jump shooting issues, but not quite as athletic and not as good of a passer. Maybe if he improves his jump shot as a freshman. Jordan Smith Jr is in the mix and just looks like Eric Bledsoe 2.0 to me, if that tells you anything. Maybe there will be a surprising breakout or two next college season. Let's hope.
No guarantee the Nets would tank? The Nets were bad. People said the same thing about the Pelicans because they didn’t have their pick. Bad teams are just bad. You are right that the Rockets could end up golden from all of this, it is possible - but not as likely as having a lottery pick in this premium draft. Stone and the Rockets organization right now is not the worst in the league, some are worse - some are better… but they aren’t inspiring.
I've been trying to put my finger on what the exact problem is with this front office. They're not great at the draft, arguably not even good, but they haven't had any total busts in the top 4 and haven't missed out on a true #1 option so far? Stone is legitimately pretty good at negotiating player salaries and not getting stuck with long-term disaster contracts. That's probably his biggest strength as a GM. But I think almost all of us can feel that this is not an elite front office, and may not even be above average. Here's what I think it actually is: Stone doesn't take smart gambles for a team in the situations we've been in. Lately, all of his gambles have been of the "pray this veteran player doesn't get hurt / comes back strong from injury" variety. Which greatly limits their upside. And all of those gambles blew up in his face this season; FVV, Adams, KD, and DFS playing a combined 90 minutes in the playoffs, with half of those being a below-replacement Finney-Smith. The few gambles he took on younger players mostly were also low-cost-limited-upside (Bruno Fernando, Jae'Sean Tate) or on the rare occasion there was some real upside (KPJ) it was a low-character guy where the fatal flaw, again, blew up in Stone's face. In some ways being a general manager is akin to playing poker, or some other skill-based gambling game. It's about maximizing your expected value in the long run, making smart gambles that eventually pan out in aggregate. Stone just hasn't done that well at this game so far. He hasn't taken enough high-upside shots at finding a #1 option, he's taken too many low-upside bets for a team that doesn't have "that guy", and the bets he has made haven't panned out all that well. A couple of years ago, you could have said well, there just hasn't been enough of a sample size yet, let's give him more time... but now I think the track record has been long enough that we can kind of see what he is as a GM. And that's not a guy who excels at finding hidden value and it's not a guy who seems to have his overall strategic vision in the right place, and those two things are really important for a team in our circumstances.
This is exactly what I have been trying to say. I don’t hate Stone, there are worse GM’s out there. He just isn’t good enough for me. He is a lawyer - not a scout or coach or even a physical therapist. The problem is he is thin skinned and won’t surround himself with people to help off set his weaknesses… a long time ago I pushed for TF to bring in a President of Basketball Operations that had lots of experience coaching and scouting. TF was actually thinking about JVG but Stone did what he could to stop it. Wise people want to be surrounded by other smart people that give different perspectives and challenge within the culture of the organization. Stone doesn’t have that and won’t, and it’s why he will likely fail long term.
