Can’t really get excited about him until he gets to AA. 31% k rate is pretty damning. He is most likely another Conrad Gregor, Kody Hinze, Koby Clemens, Drew Ferguson type. But at least he’s put himself on the radar.
A.J. Blubaugh, Miguel Ullola, and Zach Cole for Lars Nootbar. Astros really need a grownup everyday LF to solidify that position and lengthen the lineup. Lars is perfect for that spot and has another year of control. The Cardinals are building. They want to sell expiring and short term players while still giving themselves a chance in 2026. They need bullpen help and high upside young controllable players. It would hurt to lose Blubaugh but as the long guy/#5-6 option in the bullpen, he can be replaced. Cole still has a ton of upside and maybe the Cardinals see some Jordan Walker in him? He also is expendable with Lars, Trammell, and Loperfido on the roster. Ullola has a ton of upside now that he has been moved to the bullpen. He has enough AAA experience that he can help the Cards right away or could continue to learn the bullpen in AAA and give them 6 seasons of leverage relief starting next season. I think this deal is fair for both sides while not hurting their current goals. The issue is the same as always- if it becomes a bidding war the Astros can't match the talent of most other teams.
I would do both of those deals. If Crane is insisting on competing in a couple of years -- then I would try really hard to get Abreu from the Red Sox. He is under team control and is very good.
Yep. The result from those 3 trades would be a 2026 roster that looks like: 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 1B Walker RF Abreu 3B Durbin LF Wade/Loperfido CF Matthews C Vazquez SS Allen Bench: Shewmake, Diaz, Cole, Dezenzo SP: Brown, Imai, Arrighetti, Javier, Teng, Burrows RP: Hader, Whitlock, King, De Los Santos, Okert, Santa, Blanco And the farm would be in the top 10 (probably even top 5) in the league with Hope, Morales, Davalan, Neyens, Alvarez, and maybe the #17 pick as Top 100 prospects with a very deep 2nd and 3rd tier.
Values from rosternomics.com Isaac Paredes $23.9 Walker Janek $8.8 Zach Dezenzo $0.0 To Milwaukee for Jake Bauers $1.1 David Hamilton $8.3 Cooper Pratt $13.4 Jeferson Quero $9.4 Brewers are actively looking for RH power, especially at 3B or 2B. Bauers is LH LF that balances the middle of the order. Hamilton is a league average infielder for the 3B mix the rest of this season with Shewmake, Allen, Matthews, and Whitcomb. Pratt is MLB #63 prospect but Milwaukee's 3rd SS prospect so expendable in a deal to shore up 3B and RH middle of the order. Currently 110 wRC+ w/ 13.8% BB and 14.6% K rates in 246 PAs in AAA. He allows the team to trade Pena in the offseason. Quero is Milwaukee's #7 prospect. Not in top 100 per MLBPipeline but is #79 overall on Fangraphs. Currently 97 wRC+ w/ 11.1% BB and 21.1% K rates in 223 PAs in AAA. Made MLB debut this year playing 1 game. Is a better MLB starting catcher prospect than Janek. In the offseason trade Pena in a Tucker-esque deal. *I wrote this out before they lost to the Angels tonight. Maybe they just need to sell.
Jeremy Pena $41.3M to Dodgers for C/1b Dalton Rushing $22.0 OF Zyhir Hope $10.2 ( MLB #17 overall) SP River Ryan $9.0 ( MLB #77 overall) Isaac Paredes $23.9M to Brewers for SS Cooper Pratt $13.4 (MLB #63 overall) C Jeferson Quero $9.4 (MLB 2025 #47 overall*) SP J.D. Thompson $2.3 (Mil. #14) *Quero had Labrum surgery. Is now healthy but his throwing hasn't returned 100%. It was special but is now merely solid though likely to recover further. These 2 deals would instantly reopen the window in 2027. Rushing has 156 wRC+ but can't get on the field because the Dodgers have Will Smith, and Freddie Freeman. He would be 26 and have 5 years of control remaining. Pratt, Ryan, and possibly Quero would all be top 100 prospects who are MLB ready. Hope would be top 20 prospect only a year away. (Alvarez and Neyens top 100 prospects 2-3 years away) Thompson is a high floor lefty starter which is a need in the system. He would likely be 1-2 years away and projects as #3-4 in a rotation once In his prime.
Rushing’s value is way higher than that. A Pena trade built around Hope, Ryan, and a 3rd decent (but not Top 100) prospect is reasonable. Hope, Ryan, and Kellon Lindsey would be a very good trade for Houston. Again, Pratt just signed an extension and isn’t getting traded. Paredes for just Quero and Thompson is probably fair but not a trade I would like. I would try for Jett Williams and Braylon Payne. A farm system with a top 10 of Hope, Williams, Alvarez, Ryan, the #17 overall pick, Neyens, Payne, Lindsey, the #28 overall pick, and the #57 overall pick would be one of the top 10 systems in the league. Those sites that have algorithms that calculate trade values are nearly worthless because player values change rapidly, especially young players.
If Crane were willing to eat some money the Astros could get an absolute kings ransom at the deadline. Brown, Pena, Paredes, Hader, Walker, King, even Lambert could probably net a decent prospect or 2 now. We could easily get 10+ guys that would immediately move into our top 20 prospects, and 2 first round picks on the way. I suspect we'll still be alive by deadline time but if we're merely alive because of how bad the league is I hope they take an honest look at our situation.
It’s really hard to rebuild via trades. I’ve tried to look and find an example of a team that traded away 3-4 good players and ended up being a contender based on a core of players they received in return. But yes, Houston has the assets to easily build one of the 2-3 best (if not THE best) farm systems in the league. Even just trading Brown, Pena, and Paredes should leave them with an extremely good farm system. My current fantasy is trading their prime age players (Pena, Paredes, Meyers, Brown, Lambert, Abreu) and then building a lineup of old folks for 2027-2028 while they wait for the prospects to mature. Something like: 2B Altuve DH Alvarez SS Correa 1B Walker CF Smith LF Wade* 3B Suarez* RF Conforto* C Vazquez* Bench: Shewmake, Diaz, Matthews, Loperfido SP: Gausman*, Arrighetti, Teng, Imai, Burrows, Blanco, Javier RP: Hader, Kittredge*, King, Santa, Sousa, Blubaugh That’s a lineup of Alvarez, Smith, and 7 old guys. But it’s affordable and it has some upside if a few of them have a last gasp or a dead cat bounce. And it would all be against the backdrop of Houston having the best farm in the league with 8+ prospects in the Top 100. The bullpen would be fine and the rotation would be an unknown. But the team would probably be competitive and maybe even have a shot at playing their way into a wild card if they get some luck. Plus they’d be playing under a new manager.
I think if we are out of it , we have an incredible opportunity to set us up for 27+ . Will have some dough coming off the books. And javier will be in the last year I think . Kicks the can on a couple of pitchers who if we the flip the injury return coin enough might get lucky ... I'm speaking about blanco and walter who both have very good numbers in low doses. I'd trade anyone not named : Correa , altuve , yordan , smith . I noticed you kept Imai and I agree , he's actually a hell of a bargain if we could trade him (i don't want to) , but we've paid the posting fee. Teams will pay for a hot pitcher down the stretch. Hunter brown please come back and be top tier trade bait. I'd also trade pena , the only issue is I don't want to make Correa play SS . I feel like he really meant it when he said he wanted to play 3rd. Speaking of Correa , I think it gives credence to your *old guy have good season* possibility. He was arguably our most valuable player when he went down (and we have yordan)
This Angels' series was a wakeup call. As constructed, this team can't win. The pitching is fine. Dana gambled on 6 pitchers, hoping to fill out a rotation and that has worked. Those guys were never supposed to be an entire rotation and its unrealistic to expect every one of them to be good. Throw 6 names on a wall and hope 2 stick. Add them to some combination of 3-4 of Brown, Javier, McCullers, Arrighetti, Alexander, and Gordon until Blanco and/or Wesneski return. Obviously the first month was a disaster, but now I feel they have a legitimate chance of pitching 5+ and keeping the team in the game every turn. The Bullpen has similarly pulled itself together and now has 3 guys who I trust 100% and 4 who I trust 67-75%. Then there is Abreu. I don't trust Joe to make the right calls, especially if Abreu remains on this team but thats not on the pitchers. The issue is the lineup. Dana bet on health and at least 1-2 breakouts and it simply hasn't happened. Realistically a team can win with 2 weak bats. In fact, in certain situations a team can win more with a couple of superb defenders regardless of their bats, as long as the other 7 are good and dependable. If 3 or more of your 9 starters have weak bats, you can't consistently score enough to win. Baseball is a game where Hall of Famers fail 60% of the time. They don't come through enough to overcome weak production from 1/3 or more ofbtye lineup. Before the season even stsrted the only way this team was going to score enough to win was for at least 5 of Yordan, Altuve, Walker, Paredes, Correa, and Pena to stay healthy and perform up to expectations AND at least 2 other spots have a breakout. Yordan, Walker, Paredes, and Pena gave been fine. Some up and down but good enough that there is no thought or talk about upgrading them. Altuve has been both hurt and bad. That is an issue because he CAN'T be replaced so if he doesn't turn it around then he counts as 1 of the 2 weak bats you can survive. I had hope (but no confidence) that Diaz could at least be productive. He drives us crazy and swings at everything, but he is capable of having a 120 wRC+/OPS+ season. Vazquez is a great defender and backup but can't he counted on with the bat. Both Altuve and Diaz must turn it around. And I think they can (but have doubts that they will) Regardless of whether they do, at least 1 outfielder must be able to produce above average production. If not, all 3 must. Thats the "only 2 bad bats" concept. Cam Smith is the one we have the most hope for and hopefully he has turned the corner and produces for the rest of the season. Thats the bet Dana made before the season and its a tough one, but hasn't lost yet. If Altuve, Diaz, and Cam are all great the rest of the season then it doesn't matter who is in LF and CF. However there is no way that happens. The best you can reasonably count on is 2 of the 3 going good at any one time. So this team has a crazy small chance to win if they can get good production out of either LF or CF. The problem is both are black holes and that means all 7 other players must be going great without slumps. Dana knew this before the season even started. That is why he traded Sanchez. He wanted an upgrade and didn't want Jesus to be in the way. I bet if pushed right now he would not make that deal again. The problem is other teams knew the score so raised their prices and Dana balked. He needed to grin and bear it and pay the price. So because he didn't he has a very simple one now - pay for a big upgrade in LF or CF and hope some combination of Altuve, Diaz, and Cam are good so this team can win or Sell and reload for 2027. Doing neither is malpractice.
I don't see Crane eating money for a still good player when it creates a hole. I see it if the roster needs space (Pressly) I see it if he sucks ( Abreu, Monteto) I don't think anyone can talk Crane into eating money when it also makes the current team worse. Thats not how he's wired.
Brewers get: SS Jeremy Pena Astros get: CF Jett Williams C Jeferson Quero IF Andrew Fischer Brewers get a star SS to bridge to Made/Pena/Pratt. Astros get 3 of Milwaukee’s top 7 prospects. Williams and Quero could pair with Smith and Matthews to give Houston 4 good young cornerstones. 2027 lineup: 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 3B Paredes SS Correa 1B Walker RF Smith C Quero LF Matthews CF Williams
My only issue is I don't think Correa will play SS. I think his ankle injury this year sealed that. Astros will need to trade Paredes and should trade Pena before opening day in July.
