The division being so ass, and our recent history continues to distort peoples perception of how good this team actually is. This is not a good baseball team, and even with Brown and Hader added to the mix it's still only an average baseball team. This is a terrible offense that happens to feature Yordan Alvarez making it tolerable. The rotation looks like it may be decent once Brown returns, but far from dominant. Arrighetti has been the best pitcher in the AL, with no evidence to say it's remotely sustainable. We could have one of those teams like we did in 08 (don't trade Berkman and Oswalt, we can win now) that flukes its way to good season, but that's not something I like betting on. Particularly when you have a crap farm and stars aging/approaching free agency. We''ll find ourselves on that nightmare treadmill like we were on from 06-11.
I suspect that Spencer Arrighetti with his SP1-ish 1.34 ERA and 3.5 years of control should return a motherlode of prospects, at the 2026 trade deadline. Peter Lambert is looking like a solid SP3 on an expiring contract. The Astros should be able to get a top 5-10 prospect plus a lottery ticket prospect form the complex leagues. A trade of Kai-Wei Teng and his 5+ years of control should yield even more. This is kinda the point that I was making. The Astros could trade their SP1 (or any other of their best players), but that would leave a huge roster hole which the trade return has less than 50/50 chance of filling. (for those who may doubt this, look at the first set of Luhnow trades) Personally, I think that the Astros should not be aggressive at the trade deadline. If they are out of contention, they should look to trade all of the players on expiring contracts and all controllable-no-more FAs that they do not think that they can resign.
I pretty much saw that early on. Diaz seems to call pitches looking for strikeouts where Vasquez calls for pitches that are looking for easy outs or fouls to get them ahead in the count. What I don't get at all is with pitchcom, why are catchers calling pitches at all. Why not just have the coaches call all the pitches. Heck, have AI do it it.
This isn't 2003, GM's will look right past Arrighettis 1.34 ERA and see if there's any data supporting it, and right now there isn't. No prospect we land for him will be as good a prospect as Arrighetti is himself. If Teng is still good by the deadline don't trade him. Lambert might get you 1 or 2 fringy prospects. There are 5 rotation spots, SP1 has the same importance as SP2 and SP3, SP's 4, 5 and 6 will also start half of your regular season games. The greatest pitcher in history could be on a 100 loss team.
Maybe yes, maybe no. That same GM will look at his potential playoff roster and not see a SP with a 1.34 ERA. If more than one playoff GM start a bidding war, ... One can not assume that MLB GMs are rational actors BTW even if you rate Arrighetti as a SP3 he still has years of control left. For the trade to work salaries and WARs need to match (at least be in the same ballpark). The Astros will need to get Arrighetti's projected WAR until FA in return. That is 10-15 WAR, which a very solid prospect haul. BTW2 I would not trade Arrighetti ... unless he is in his last controllable year and the team is out of contention at the trade deadline.
Isn't Peter Lambert still arb eligible? I know that the Astros signed him to a one year contract, but I am pretty sure that gives them control of his final arb year in 2027.
Yes, let's start rebuilding for 2035. And then in 2030, we can trade all our rookies to start rebuilding for 2040. Neverending hope for the future!
Any decisions about buying/selling are still 5-6 weeks away. But here’s how my decision tree would be laid out: Leading the division: trade any prospect above High A or any non-core young player to add an elite setup man and a controllable LHH OF who can hit in the middle of the order. Best tradeable assets would be Mayer, Pecko, Cole, Matthews, Dezenzo, Blubaugh, Nezuh, Sullivan, Janek, and Spence. <3 games out of the division: trade fringey upper level prospects for a rental setup man or a 2nd tier rental LH OF bat. 3-6 games out of the division: stand pat. Maybe take on a salary dump rental reliever. 7 games out of the division: shop Pena and Paredes and trade whichever will bring back the best value. Trade all rentals who have any trade value (Okert, De Los Santos, Abreu, Vazquez). 8+ games out of the division: trade Brown, Pena, Paredes, Meyers, Lambert, and all the rentals. Shop Walker and trade him if he can bring back something meaningful.
Every year the Stros start out slow and some on here want to tear everything down every year. This team is aging? Who is old besides Altuve who isn't going anywhere and Walker?
Walker, Pena and Paredes have 1 season left, Brown and Yordan have 2 seasons left. Altuve is aging, Imai is gonna suck or leave. After those guys there is really not a lot of meat on the bone for this roster. If there was some impending talent infusion coming to supplement the roster I would be all for holding out a little longer but there doesn't seem to be one. I get that I'm in the minority, but I would rather have a transitional rebuild instead of having to be dog s**t for 3 or 4 seasons because we had to start from almost organizational scratch because we held on for dear life to a team that was clearly not good enough. And FWIW, I have not one single time in the last decade called for a rebuild. I always saw a window to possibly extend until this season. Be it trades, incompetence or whatever the organization has not replenished through the farm as needed over the last few seasons to extend a competitive window.
I've been saying it for a year and half, and am always met with the same incredulous responses. A few more are starting to see the light. Look, I get that we love our team, and it's tough to go through rebuilds. But, it's past time. The stress fractures have turned into more serious cracks, which have in turn turned into gaping holes where water is rushing out of the dam. It's coming down. While longer and more easily disguised in baseball, the cyclical nature of sports has played out. Jim has ridden this for all its worth without Luhnow. Now, it's time to pay the piper.
You speak as if a rebuild is never necessary. Whatever the Astros might have been, we can't continue to "reload", especially with the folks running the show.
Yep... if we trade Arrighetti, hopefully he can replicate the success Seth Beer, J.B. Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, and Josh Rojas experienced in helping Arizona rebuild.
I speak that trading a rookie that has 5 years of control left for future prospects is not an attempt to rebuild in the near future but for a decade down the line.
If re-signing Alvarez and Brown is an option, I see no reason to go scorched earth. If they have no intention of extending either one then you might as well trade them all and get the five year tank started. If you are keeping Alvarez and Brown, then you still have enough really good young players to build around. Paredes has been disappointing but he is still young and I’m sure he will rebound, I might even extend him while the price is low. Arrighetti and Teng look like the real deal to me and Cam is going to be a star. I would trade Pena because I don’t think it is in the realm of possibility that Crane would sign three giant extensions. Unless, Walker brings back a decent return, might as well let him play it out. If you can get something for Hader at the deadline, might as well, since we aren’t competing this year and probably a lockout next year. I doubt you can get anything for Myers, but if you can go ahead and trade him. So in summation, assuming you will extend Yordon and Brown, Trade Pena, Hader, Myers, Walker (if you can get anything). Go heavy on playing the youngsters the rest of the year. The resulting core is Altuve (no chance they are trading him), Cam, Correa, Paredes, Alvarez, Brown, Arrighetti, Teng. It’s a re-build, but not a full tank. Hope Diaz can make a rebound and then trade him.
Pena is the only guy you mentioned trading who might actually return anything of note. This team isn't good and your "resulting core" is just a treadmill team of the same group that isn't good enough as is. It's not a rebuild, it's one step above doing nothing. You don't need a "5 year tank" if you play your cards right, you can turn the franchise back around in 2 or 3 seasons. You only need the big tank if your farm is trash and you never cash in your MLB talent to help it along, which seems to be the path most people want. I swear this is a time warp to 2007. "Don't trade Berkman and Oswalt, we can win now. We're just a Miguel Tejada away" FWIW, I am OK with holding onto Yordan. Given his age, injury history and lack of versatility he should be an affordable extension and should still be raking when we hope to be good again.
