Good point. Comparing his numbers this year with his numbers from last year in AAA (when he was pretty good there) it seems like the contact quality is the main difference. He’s not really whiffing more or making worse swing decisions from what I can tell. He’s just making crummier contact which is driving down his BABIP. I’m not sure how often that is something that young players improve upon. Agree about the steals. Seems to apply to Cole and Smith as well.
After seeing what's currently in the minors and how Matthews/Cam are looking in MLB things dont look promising. Wasting another yr hoping guys like Janek work out is a waste of time IMHO.
Adding talent should be 1st and foremost regardless of position. Add the talent and if the MLB roster comes up short at say the catcher position in both MLB/minors then sign or trade for a vet like Danny Jansen or Reese McGuire. What they really need to do is find some young pitching in both the draft and international signings. I'm starting to doubt Dana's the right man for the job and I was fully on board with his hiring given his track record of finding high end talent.
There's a lot of truth in this post, but Luhnow left the team with prospects like Brown/Garcia/Javier/Abreu/Pena/Meyers/Whitley etc... so the farm wasn't as barren as you make it out to be and I say this to you very respectfully.
Totally agree with this post. Hopefully Crane finds another GM he trusts. If Stearns gets fired I hope Crane brings Stearns back to run the org because Crane trusts Stearns IMHO. Regardless if Dana stays on as GM/Farm Director.
All of the prospects you listed except Brown and Whitley had graduated before Dana Brown became GM, and Whitley was a complete bust. When Brown took over, the farm had Hunter Brown as an elite prospect (about to graduate), Yainer Diaz as a fringe Top 100 type, and really no other big time prospects. Gilbert was a recent 1st rd pick who didn’t pan out. Arrighetti was further down in the system. So yeah, Dana Brown inherited a barren system with just one really good prospect, and he’d already reached the majors.
Disagree with this being a great outcome. An acceptable outcome sure but great? I've got higher hopes than drafting a 7-9 hole hitter.
Go look at the guys who’ve been drafted #28 overall over the last 30 years. It’s not a reasonable expectation to draft a star player at that spot. In the entire history of the draft there have been a total of two guys drafted #28 overall who signed and went on to put up 10+ bwar: Colby Rasmus (2005) and Charles Johnson (1992). Of the 8 guys drafted at that spot from 2016-2022, 7 of them have negative career bwar.
Pena/Abreu already up before Luhnow left? Anyways there was a lot of young talent on the team and IIRC they had something like 5 top 10 ROY candidates in 10 yrs.
All of that was before Dana Brown got to Houston. It’s reasonable to argue Click inherited a good farm and some young talent but by 2023 that was over (with the notable exception of Hunter Brown). But both Click and Brown had far fewer draft resources than Luhnow, ironically partially because of the cheating scandal that occurred under Luhnow. Even in the later years where he wasn’t picking at the top of the rounds, Luhnow had multiple drafts where he had extra picks (including one with 3 2nd rounders due to the Cardinals hacking penalty). Dana Brown has had no 2nd rd pick the last 2 drafts.
I know you've got the stats, but I expect a few Pena/Brown/Arrighetti type picks even if they're not 1st rd picks. A couple of those type picks a yr are what I expect and maybe that's unrealistic in your eyes. But that's what this or has been missing. Can Dana be the guy to turn their fortunes around, sure he can, but I wouldn't bet on it after seeing what Dana has done in his 3 yrs as Stros GM. What really gets me is Cam really needs to be in the minors to figure stuff out and for some reason Dana refuses to send him down. Luhnow sent Tuck back down after he didn't perform well his 1st time up.
I am hoping that with Meyers on his way back that Cam will finally be sent down, but it will be Whitcomb. They will split LF/CF between Cole/Meyers/Dazenzo/Matthews and run Smith out there pretty much every day. I think it has gotten to the point where Smith could slap a kid at home plate and not be sent down.
From what I’ve read, this is a very rough guide for what should be reasonably expected based on draft spot: Top 5 overall pick: star or #3 SP/very good everyday player 6-10 overall: above average everyday player/#3-4SP or elite closer 11-20 overall: everyday player or #4 SP or leverage RP 21-30 overall: fringe everyday player, bench player, setup man, good MR 2nd rd: solid bench player, depth SP or solid MR 3rd-6th rd: AAAA cup of coffee player 7th-10th rd: top out at AA/AAA 11th-15th rd: top out at AA/High A 16th-20th rd: top out at High A/A ball
If Brown had 5 drafts where he picked at #28 overall and none of them panned out into an everyday player, I would understand the criticism. And if he has entire drafts where he doesn’t get any core pieces, that’s fair to criticize him even if he is drafting late. My main point is that it’s not reasonable to judge Dana Brown based on the fact that Brice Matthews looks like he will “just” be a fringey everyday player, because that sample size of 1 actually paints Dana Brown as above average at drafting.
Point is Luhnow left a fairly full cup board of good/great ascending young players and Click/Brown have done very little to restock it. Yeah I know about the loss of draft picks, but with the international signings in addition to the draft picks they signed, Click/Dana should've been able to find a couple of prospects each yr. But no, they spend internation money on Leon aand couldn't find a top tier player like Pena in the later rds. Maybe I expect too much out of the Stros GM's.
You forgot to add that awesome Janek pick. Forcuzzi etc... thing is the farm is in as bad of shape as it was when Dana got here. Except for Alvarez and hopefully Pecko.
Luhnow had 8 drafts. Outside of guys picked in the top 5 overall, he chose a total of 4 players who went on to accumulate 10+ bwar: Ramon Laureano, who he traded away for nothing Myles Straw, who has exactly 10 bwar (and who Click flipped for Yainer Diaz) Hunter Brown Jeremy Pena So really in 8 drafts, Luhnow picked 2 really good players who became good core pieces. One every 4 years.
Nothing?! Nothing?! How dare you besmirch the great name of Brandon Bailey! I'll have you know he finished his MLB career with a 2.45 ERA!
It's really easy to send a struggling Tucker down when the lineup resembles the 1927 Yankees. I want Cam sent down to mentally reset, too but its way more than just Luhnow being willing and Brown unwilling. I wonder what Luhnow would have done with Tucker if his other options to fill all 3 OF spots was Dezenzo and his 98 wRC+, Cole and his 92, Matthews and his 71, and Whitcomb and his 25 and he is a lame duck hoping to get his contract renewed. Maybe he puts Tucker in and hopes talent comes through.
