Five or six wins in a row would have me feeling more optimistic. I just don’t see it happening with the schedule coming up. I think we will be dead and buried by May 17th after the rangers series
Just thought of another small downside for the catcher: the batter would be totally within his rights to take a full swing and drill him and then get awarded 1B on catcher's interference while the catcher gets ejected (and then misses 3 months with broken ribs)
Every at bat, the hitter can stand in the back of the box, throw the bat back as part of their swing and nail the catcher (hopefully in the mitt for the catcher's sake).
Jim Crane has noticeably been very quiet. I asked around, and it isn't that he has been overly busy (he is always busy but not anymore than prior years), so the lack of any discussion is telling. He is either losing interest in the team (told that isn't the case) or he is going to let this play out and then speak when he has a definitive comment. Dana Brown recently said Espada is safe - but that means very little. Espada and Brown both are going to be free agents and negotiations have been shelved for the season. Right now - the Astros are very lucky that they are in the league and division they are in. They are 3.5 games behind Seattle and 3 behind Texas. The Mariners are starting to play better - they are 7-3 in their last 10. It isn't even May 1st yet, I think they get at least the month of May before we see any definite track. It will also tell us a lot about the Mariners and Rangers.... if one of them has a 20-5 or 18-7 type run in May, they will bury the Astros most likely. I can't see any scenario where the Astros are even .500% in May. Brown and Imai are huge parts of the puzzle. Brown is out for awhile and Imai is pitching in AA and getting lit up. The Astros need Brown and Imai to pitch well to win. Burrows could possibly get better as he adjusts -- and a foursome of Brown/Imai/Burrows/Arrighetti could win you games, but even getting all those guys in the rotation together has been too much to ask for. I could see Abreu turn it around..... and Nate Pearson is finally healthy, and at least he is an arm with the talent to be good. Pena should be back soon -- if the good Pena shows up, that really helps extend the line up..... Just too many "ifs" for me personally. I am not buying it. Hard for me to be overly critical of the manager or GM at this point, they have held the team together with one form or another of duct tape for a long time....... but the one change I personally would make is I would send down Diaz. He is a lost cause. Before everyone piles on Espada and Brown ......... consider that over the last 12 months they have lost and still don't currently have the following pitchers....... Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imae, Josh Hader, Nate Pearson, Christian Javier, Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter. Even if Imae was struggling........ adding a very solid group of Blanco, Wesneski and Walter to the pitching staff this year would add at least 3-4 wins to the total, and the Astros would be in 1st place. We did not get to see a lot of him, but Wesneski was poised to be a big addition to the Astros.... solid innings as a starter, and Blanco was very good as a mid rotation arm and Walter was a classic late blooming pitcher.
It is like having your side piece move into the spare room next to you and your wife's bedroom and then trying to date the girl that makes your wife's Starbucks every morning...... there are some real limits here.
Anyone counting on ANYTHING from Christian Javier in 2026 or ever is going to be upset. His arm is in bad shape. He had an injury that was not properly treated because he pitched through it - and it got worse, he treated it and it has now flared up several times, and even when he is effective for a short spell, it goes back to being a problem. This is a lot like Carlos Hernandez and Scott Elarton and Luis Garcia... and McCullers. This is just how it is likely going to be going forward. Some guys just don't recover.
I know it’s early but they just don’t have the pitching. the starters mostly suck and then the bullpen comes in and sucks too. Every game feels the same and it’s disgusting to watch.
I agree with most of this, I'm still not in favor of selling off, although I probably would try to move Pena at the deadline depending on where the Stros are in the standings. Get back pitching/pitching and more pitching if they decide to trade Pena. Disagree about Espada causing injuries, how he uses his pitching staff has lead to a lot of the injury issues IMHO. How long until they bring Pecko up? I kinda hope they dont because Espada will probably ruin his career too.
iirc Walter (surgery in September) is done for the year, there's a slight chance Blanco and Wesneski can be useful in September (surgeries in late May or early June)
I agree any turnaround is unlikely in the near term. But my question is what is the benefit to keeping Espada? If the Astros suck the next month (likely), regardless of the rest of the season, are they really going to re-sign him to a deal next year? It seems unlikely. So if that's the case, win or lose, what's the point of keeping him for another month or 3? Why not give some young hotshot in the organization a chance and see if you strike gold? You don't need to go out and pay an Alex Cora. The worst thing would be to do this a month from now and realize you had someone who could turn things around but now it's too late. If what you're doing isn't working and there's no harm to changing things up, why not do it? The only exception is if Espada is going to help them catch fire the next few weeks but there's nothing we've seen in 2.5 years that suggests that he's some kind of genius or will know how to push all the right buttons.
They will get some of the pitching back this year -- but I don't think they will get enough, and it is very possible that Hader isn't effective this year. I personally would have fired Espada just over how he handed Hader... but that is in the past.
The benefit in the short term (month or six weeks) is that it sends a message to the team that they are not panicking and still believe they will turn it around. The only way Espada is back next year is if the Astros suddenly play .700% ball the rest of the way and make the ALCS or WS. Neither is going to happen. However, I don't think that the Astros are ready to pull the plug yet, they don't want to panic yet. I personally would not have a problem if they let him go tomorrow --- but they aren't there yet. This is true - and no doubt some of it is that they aren't ready to really mix it up yet. There is a lot that needs to happen -- the owner needs to decide if he is willing to rebuild, will he bring Brown back? The coaching staff? Player development people? I still think that the first step is that Crane has to come to the conclusion that the chance of this working is small and the smarter play is moving players to clear salary and get assets.
Right - and out season will already be over by September...... really we are looking at 2027 if ever. Which is why I think we will ultimately see a form of rebuild. Hopefully it is a full rebuild where they maximize what they can get for the best players on the roster. The Astros could stock their farm system with what they can get in trade, it also opens them up for better draft picks the next couple of seasons.
Do you think Alvarez, Altuve, Correa, Walker, or Hader would want to be traded if Houston was looking at a rebuild? Their no-trade clauses loom large over any efforts to fully turn over the roster and farm system. Paredes, Pena, and Brown just by themselves could bring back a real haul of prospects if they are all healthy and effective in July. 4-6 Top 100 types from those 3 guys would be a huge infusion of talent and combined with the 2026 draft and players already in the system might be enough to start winning again. A farm with 7-9 Top 100 prospects (2-3 from Brown, 2 from Pena, 1 from Paredes, Alvarez, Neyens, and maybe their 206 1st round pick) plus a 2028 roster of: 3B Ha-Seong Kim DH Alvarez SS Correa LF Seiya Suzuki 2B Altuve 1B Walker RF Smith CF Loperfido C Jake Rogers Bench: Shewmake, Trammell, Matthews, Salazar SP: Michael King, Imai, Arrighetti, Lambert, Burrows, Blanco RP: Hader, King, Sousa, Teng, Blubaugh, Javier, Wesneski That's probably a winning team with a Top 3 farm.
I see no way they blow up/tear down this team until the offseason. I can see them making some veteran trades around the deadline if they continue to suck.
I think that a few of them would likely not want to be moved at the deadline --- but I believe that by the Winter, all of them outside of Altuve would either want to be traded or agree to be traded. Alvarez is in the prime of his career and has another big contract in him if he can stay healthy. He is going to want to secure the money, and he is going to want to increase his legacy. He also has a family, and would likely agree to a trade somewhere that will extend him. Alvarez and his wife are both very shrewd people. Correa probably wouldn't want to be traded at the deadline, but he still has years on his deal and will not want to lose for 2-3 years. Hader and Walker are mostly concerned about playing time and money -- I am sure they would agree to a deal to a better team. The Astros likely would be limited in whom they can trade these guys to, but in reality -- the Astros were never trading them to the Brewers or Reds. It was going to be to a group of 4-5 teams that these guys would agree to go to anyway. The potential return over a 15 month period of time for --- Pena, Brown, Alvarez would be very high .... the other ones would likely be lower ceiling prospects, or ideally guys in the lower levels.
