What Does It Take To Build A Dynasty?

Note: this will be broken up into 3 posts to accommodate word count restrictions.

With Houston's 11-18 start, I've decided to complete an analysis I started last season to do a retrospective on how Houstons 2015-2024 run was built and how it might be replicated in the short term.

In 2005, Houston reached the world series. From 2006-2010, they muddled between 86 and 76 wins, failing to make the playoffs in any of those seasons. Drayton McLane approved the start of a rebuild under then-GM Ed Wade in 2011, and when Jim Crane purchased the Astros in 2011, they were coming off of a 56-106 season; clearly, their major league roster was awful. But it wasn't totally barren. Carlos Lee was an overpaid but decent player. Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers were decent starting pitchers. Thru trades involving Roy Oswalt, Hunter Pence, Lance Berkman, and Michael Bourn, the Astros had some high ceiling young players who'd already reached the majors in 1B Brett Wallace and 3B Jimmy Paredes, and their farm system had added top prospects SS Jonathan Villar, 1B Jonathan Singleton, and P Jarred Cosart. Wade had drafted an exciting OF prospect in George Springer with the 11th overall pick in the 2011 draft. The farm system had recently produced some interesting young players in 2B Jose Altuve, OF JD Martinez, OF Brian Bogusevic, C JR Towles, P Jordan Lyles, and P Bud Norris. Regardless, entering the 2011-2012 offseason, the Astros didn't have a single player who projected to post 3+ fWAR for the 2012 season.

Looking ahead at that time, they held the #1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, with an extra 1st round pick received as compensation for losing IF Clint Barmes in free agency. In December, Crane hired Jeff Luhnow, an analytical, forward thinking former McKinsey consultant and St. Louis Cardinals' scouting director, to be his new GM. Luhnow brought in like-minded resources to fill out his front office staff. Luhnow had sold Crane on a complete rebuild, a plan to intentionally field terrible teams as a means to acquiring as many prospects as possible, to set a foundation of good, cheap, controllable players as the basis for a sustainable winning team.

In 2012, Houston went 55-107. Luhnow traded JA Happ, Wandy Rodriguez, Carlos Lee, and Brett Myers for prospects. Jose Altuve established himself as a viable major league player. Rule 5 pick SS Marwin Gonzalez stuck on the roster. The 2012 draft was highlighted by SS Carlos Correa and P Lance McCullers Jr. That offseason, Jed Lowrie was traded. Carlos Lee was traded at the deadline. The ascending farm system featured 5 Top 100 prospects in Singleton, Cosart, Springer, Villar, and P Mike Foltynewicz. Houston fired manager Brad Mills and replaced him with Bo Porter. In 2013, Houston went 51-111, their worst season in franchise history. C Jason Castro was an All-Star, while Jose Altuve took a step backward in his development. SP Dallas Keuchel emerged as a viable rotation option. Rookie SP Jarred Cosart provided glimpses of potential. Houston selected P Mark Appel #1 overall in the draft. The farm system, ranked among the best in the league, featured 7 Top 100 prospects in Singleton, Correa, Springer, Cosart, McCullers, 2B Delino DeShields Jr., and Foltynewicz. Norris, RP Jose Veras, and OF Justin Maxwell were traded for prospects. Somewhat surprisingly, in the middle of a down season, Houston signed Altuve to an extension that included $12M in guaranteed money thru 2017, with team options for 2018 and 2019; Altuve posted just 0.5 fwar in 2013. That offseason, Houston made their first significant free agent sigining in years, inking SP Scott Feldman for $30M/3yrs. In 2014, Houston went 70-92, a marked improvement over the previous 3 seasons, but still the 4th worst record in the league. The team saw a major breakout from Jose Altuve, who posted 5.2 fwar in the first year of the extension that he'd signed the previous season. Springer had reached the majors and looked like a budding star. Castro and OF Dexter Fowler (who Luhnow had acquired in a trade for P Jordan Lyles) played well. P Brett Oberholtzer threw well, posting 2.1 fwar. Dallas Keuchel and waiver claim P Collin McHugh broke out, combining for 6 fwar. Houston selected HS P Brady Aiken #1 overall in the draft, but his signing was derailed due to issues with his medical reports. In a lucky outcome for the Astros, MLB allowed them to void their agreement with 5th round pick P Jacob Nix which would have cost them a top pick in the following draft, as it would have sent them over their allotted draft signing pool due to Aiken not signing. In June, they signed 1B prospect Jon Singleton to a 5 year extension. In a surprise trade in July, Luhnow sent young P Jarred Cosart to Miami for OF Jake Marisnick, P Frances Martes, 3B Colin Moran, and a 1st round pick in the 2015 draft. The farm system, ranked as the best in baseball, featured up to 9 Top 100 prospects (Correa, Appel, Springer, Singleton, McCullers, Foltynewicz, DeShields, OF Domingo Santana, and P Vince Velasquez). In September, Houston fired manager Bo Porter and replaced him with AJ Hinch.

 

The Dynasty

That brings us to 2015. Coming off of a 19 win improvement from 2013 to 2014, and having established a core of young, controllable, cheap star talent in Altuve, Springer, Keuchel, and McHugh, with the best farm system in the league, expectations were set that Houston would finally post a winning season. That proved true, as Houston won 86 games and lost to the eventual champion Royals in the ALDS. In 2016, they took a step back, going 84-78 and missing the playoffs. Then, in 2017, the real winning started; they went 101-61 and won the franchise's 1st world series. 2018 saw them go 103-59 and lose in the ALCS. 2019 featured perhaps their best roster ever, resulting in a 103-59 record and another world series appearance. The COVID disruption of 2020 made for an odd year, but Houston managed to reach the ALCS after posting a 29-31 record in the shortened season. 2021 Saw a return to dominance, going 95-67 and another World Series appearance. 2022 delivered their 2nd WS ring, after a tremendous franchise best 106-56 record. The Astros faltered from there but managed to make the playoffs in both 2023 and 2024, with 90 and 88 wins, respectively, before falling to 87 wins last season and missing the playoffs, finishing 3 games out of the AL West lead.

Here is a summary of the impactful organizational roster moves Houston made in that time:

2015:

Draft: SS Alex Bregman, OF Kyle Tucker, OF Daz Cameron, P Tom Eshelman, OF Myles Straw, P Patrick Sandoval

Free Agent signings: SS Jed Lowrie ($23M/3yrs), RP Luke Gregerson ($18.5M/3yrs), RP Pat Neshek ($12.5M/2yrs), OF Colby Rasmus ($8M/1yr)

Traded for: 3B Luis Valbuena, CF Carlos Gomez, P Mike Fiers, P Scott Kazmir

Graduated from farm: SS Carlos Correa, OF Domingo Santana, P Lance McCullers


2016:

Draft: P Forrest Whitley, OF Ronnie Dawson, C Jake Rogers

Traded for: C/OF/DH Evan Gattis, RP Ken Giles

Free agent signings: 1B/3B Yuli Gurriel ($47.5M/5yrs), RP Tony Sipp ($18M/3yrs), OF Colby Rasmus ($15.8M/1yr), SP Doug Fister ($7M/1yr)

Graduated from farm: 1B Tyler White, 1B AJ Reed, 3B Alex Bregman, 2B Tony Kemp, OF Teoscar Hernandez, 3B Colin Moran, P Chris Devenski, P Michael Feliz, P Jandel Gustave


2017:

Draft: P JB Bukauskas, P Corbin Martin, 3B Joe Perez, 1B JJ Matijevic, CF Jake Meyers, OF Chas McCormick, IF Josh Rojas

Traded for: C Brian McCann, RP Francisco Liriano, P Justin Verlander, OF Yordan Alvarez

Free agent signings: OF Josh Reddick ($52M/4yrs), DH Carlos Beltran ($16M/1yr), P Charlie Morton ($14M/2yrs)

Graduated from farm: OF Derek Fisher, 1B JD Davis, P Joe Musgrove, P Francis Martes, P James Hoyt, P David Paulino, P Reymin Guduan


2018:

Draft: 1B Seth Beer, P Jayson Schroeder, SS Jeremy Pena

Traded for: P Gerrit Cole, RP Ryan Pressly, RP Roberto Osuna

Free agent signings: 2B Jose Altuve ($163.5M/7yrs), RP Joe Smith ($15M/2yrs), RP Hector Rondon ($8.5M/2yrs)

Graduated from farm: OF Kyle Tucker, OF Myles Straw, P Framber Valdez, P Josh James, P Cionel Perez, P Dean Deetz


2019:

Draft: C Korey Lee, SS Grae Kessinger, P Hunter Brown

Traded for: UT Aledmys Diaz, C Martin Maldonado, P Zack Greinke, P Aaron Sanchez

Free agent signings: OF Michael Brantley ($16M/2yrs), C Robinson Chirinos ($5.8M/1yr), P Wade Miley ($4.5M/1yr)

Graduated from farm: OF Yordan Alvarez, IF Abraham Toro, IF Jack Mayfield, C Garrett Stubbs, P Cy Sneed, P Jose Urquidy, P Bryan Abreu


2020:

Draft: P Alex Santos

Traded for: P Joe Biagini, P Brooks Raley

Free agent signings: 3B Alex Bregman ($100M/5yrs), P Justin Verlander ($66M/2yrs), C Martin Maldonado ($7M/2yrs)

Graduated from farm: 1B Taylor Jones, P Brandon Bielak, P Enoli Paredes, P Cristian Javier, P Luis Garcia, P Humberto Castellanos, P Nivaldo Rodriguez, P Brandon Bailey


2021:

Draft: P Spencer Arrighetti, OF Tyler Whitaker, OF Joey Loperfido

Traded for: RP Rafael Montero, RP Kendall Graveman, C Yainer Diaz, RP Phil Maton

Free agent signings: OF Michael Brantley ($32M/2yrs), P Jake Odorizzi ($23.5M/3yrs), 1B Yuli Gurriel ($16.5M/2yrs), C Jason Castro ($7M/2yrs)

Graduated from farm: OF Chas McCormick, P Kent Emanuel, P Ralph Garza Jr., P Tyler Ivey


2022:

Draft: OF Drew Gilbert, OF Jacob Melton, P AJ Blubaugh, P Zach Cole, P Andrew Taylor, OF Ryan Clifford

Traded for: C Christian Vazquez, UT Mauricio Dubon, 1B Trey Mancini

Free agent signings: P Justin Verlander ($50M/2yrs), RP Hector Neris ($17M/2yrs), C Martin Maldonado ($9M/2yrs)

Graduated from farm: OF Jose Siri, 1B JJ Matijevic, IF David Hensley, C Korey Lee, IF Joe Perez



2023:

Draft: SS Brice Matthews, P Alonzo Tredwell

Traded for: RP Kendall Gravemen, P Justin Verlander

Free agent signings: DH Yordan Alvarez ($115M/6yrs), P Cristian Javier ($64M/5yrs), 1B Jose Abreu ($58.5M/3yrs), RP Rafael Montero ($34.5M/3yrs), OF Michael Brantley ($12M/1yr)

Graduated from farm: C Yainer Diaz, P JP France, P Ronel Blanco, P Seth Martinez, P Parker Mushinski, P Shawn Dubin, OF Corey Julks, IF Grae Kessinger, C Cesar Salazar



2024:

Draft: C Walker Janek, P Ryan Forcucci

Traded for: P Yusei Kikuchi, P Caleb Ferguson

Free agent signings: RP Josh Hader ($95M/5yrs), C Victor Caratini ($12M/2yrs)

Graduated from farm: OF Joey Loperfido, OF Zach Dezenzo, 3B/OF Shay Whitcomb, OF Pedro Leon

 

Comparing 2015 to a hypothetical 2027

Having established that the Astros’ run truly began with the 2015 season, and assuming that 2024 represents the end, how might Houston do it again? First, I think it’s worth noting that the 2015-2024 success was built not just on players; the team had an owner who was willing to sustain a high payroll and (at least from 2011-2019) had a forward-thinking GM. They also clearly had a coaching and development staff that allowed them to get maximum value out of certain types of pitchers. It’s hard to analyze those factors, but for the sake of this exercise, lets assume Houston continues to have those assets (or replaces them with some other equally valuable non-player asset).

As part of a Pareto analysis, I went through Houston’s opening day 2015 organizational roster and mapped them to what could reasonably project as their 2027 opening day roster.


2015 Opening Day MLB Roster with 2027 comp (ordered by estimated surplus value; guaranteed contracts are listed, otherwise remaining years of control are listed):

2B Jose Altuve ($23M/5yrs) : 2B Jose Altuve ($59M/3yrs); Altuve and Springer represent the bulk of the surplus value variance in the big league roster from 2015 vs expected 2027. Altuve is not the MVP level player he was in 2015, and he only projects to decline.

OF George Springer (6 yrs) : OF Jake Meyers (1 yr); this is a huge variance in favor of 2015 and really the single biggest shortfall when doing this analysis. Had Cam Smith (or Zach Cole or Brice Matthews) become an MVP level player this season, it would be easier to draw a straight line. This is where I will note that I did not map 2027 SS Jeremy Pena or 2027 SP Hunter Brown to any 2015 comparable; those are additional assets Houston could bring to bear to bridge this value gap, more on that below.

P Dallas Keuchel (4yrs) : P Spencer Arrighetti (5 yrs); Arrighetti might not be at Keuchel’s level, but he appears to be in the midst of a breakout, so this is an optimistic comp

C Jason Castro (2 yrs) : C Yainer Diaz (2 yrs); pretty reasonable comp as both guys are middling starting C with 2 years of arb control left

SS Jed Lowrie ($23M/3yrs) : SS/3B Carlos Correa ($112M/6yrs); this could end up heavily favoring 2027, as Correa currently projects to be a 4 win player.

DH Evan Gattis (4 yrs) : 3B Isaac Paredes (1 yr); Paredes has less control but is the more valuable player

P Collin McHugh (5 yrs) : P Kai-Wei Teng (5 yrs); this is an optimistic comp

OF Jake Marisnick (5 yrs) : OF Cam Smith (4 yrs); this could be a huge win for 2027 if Smith breaks out, but assuming he continues his inconsistency, he projects closer to Marisnick than Springer in terms of surplus value.

3B Luis Valbuena (2 yrs) : DH Yordan Alvarez ($54M/2yrs); this heavily favors 2027.

UT Marwin Gonzales (4 yrs) : UT Brice Matthews (5 yrs); wide variance comp

P Will Harris (5 yrs) : P AJ Blubaugh (5 yrs); wide variance comp

P Tony Sipp (4 yrs) : P Bennett Sousa (4 yrs)

OF Colby Rasmus ($8M/1yr) : 1B Christian Walker ($20M/1yr); pretty reasonable comp as both are 2nd or 3rd tier players on 1 year free agent deals.

P Luke Gregerson ($18M/3yrs) : P Josh Hader ($38M/2yrs)

P Scott Feldman ($30M/3yrs) : P Tatsuya Imai ($36M/2yrs); wide variance comp

P Pat Neshek ($12M/2yrs) : P Cristian Javier ($21M/1yr); comparable waste of money but some upside for Javier

P Chad Qualls ($6M/2yrs) : P Bryan King (4 yrs); advantage 2027

P Joe Thatcher ($4M/1yr) : P Peter Lambert (1 yr); advantage 2027

C Hank Conger (1 yr) : TBD Free Agent

OF Robbie Grossman (6 yrs) : OF Joey Loperfido (5 yrs); both are fringey LHH OF.

P Asher Wojciechowski (6 yrs) : P Mike Burrows (4 yrs); big upside for 2027 here.

P Samuel Deduno (6 yrs) : P Cody Bolton (5 yrs); again, upside for 2027

UT Jonathan Villar (5 yrs) : UT Braden Shewmake (5 yrs)

1B Chris Carter (3 yrs) : OF Zach Dezenzo (5 yrs)

P Roberto Hernandez (1 yr) : P Ronel Blanco (3 yrs); big upside for 2027 here


2015 Farm System (Top 20 prospects) vs Expected 2027:

1. SS Carlos Correa : Like Altuve and Springer from the big league roster, the bulk of the variance between the 2015 opening day farm system and the project 2027 opening day farm lies in Carlos Correa. Correa was in the mix for #1 overall prospect in the league at that time. The only way Houston can bridge this gap is with a home run trade of Hunter Brown, Jeremy Pena, and/or Yordan Alvarez. Here is where I will note that entering 2015, Houston had both the #2 and #5 overall pick; if Houston tanks 2026 they will likely have a top 10 pick, but are unlikely to be able to replicate the value they got out of 2015 when they added both Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman.

2. P Mark Appel : Houston doesn’t currently have a prospect that comps to 2015 Appel, but they could add one in the upcoming draft. That draft should provide 4-5 prospects who would slot in houston’s org top 10 and should provide at least 1 prospect who lands on offseason top 100 honorable mentions.

3. OF Domingo Santana : OF Kevin Alvarez

4. P Vince Velasquez : P Ethan Pecko

5. P Michael Feliz : P Miguel Ullola

6. 3B Colin Moran : SS Xavier Neyens

7. OF Brett Phillips : OF Ethan Frey

8. OF Teoscar Hernandez : OF Joseph Sullivan

9. P Josh Hader : P Bryce Mayer

10. P Lance McCullers Jr. : 2026 Draft

11. OF Derek Fisher : OF Zach Cole

12. 1B AJ Reed : OF Luis Baez

13. 3B JD Davis : C Jase Mitchell

14. 2B Tony Kemp : 2B Yamal Encarnacion

15. P Joe Musgrove : P Ryan Forcucci

16. IF Nolan Fontana : IF Pascanel Ferreras

17. C Max Stassi : C Walker Janek

18. P Kyle Smith : P James Hicks

19. OF Danry Vasquez : OF Anthony Huezo

20. P Frances Martes : P Javier Perez; Martes was a relative unknown just starting to break out at that time


There were other lesser rated prospects in the 2015 system who went on to reach the majors:

C: Jacob Nottingham
OF: Preston Tucker, Jason Martin, Ramon Laureano

P: Daniel Mengden, James Hoyt, Adrian Houser, Brady Rodgers, Bryan Abreu, Franklin Perez, Albert Abreu, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Elieser Hernandez, David Paulino, Josh James, Dean Deetz, Rogelio Armenteros, Chris Devenski, Kent Emanuel; many of those were in the DSL at the time and unknown to anyone. For the purpose of this exercise, it can be safely assumed that Houston has underrated pitching prospects in their current system who will go on to provide big league value.

There were also graduated young players worth mentioning in 1B Jon Singleton, 1B Tyler White, 3B Matt Dominguez, and OF LJ Hoes.

From this exercise, I’ve determined that the vast majority of the difference between the 2015 Astros organizational roster and the 2027 projected organizational roster boils down to 3 players: the value of 2015 George Springer, the value of 2015 Carlos Correa, and not having the #2 overall pick that became 2015 Alex Bregman. That could potentially be made up by trading Hunter Brown and Jeremy Pena sometime in the next 10 months, or could be made up with good fortune of some other kind.

 

No-trade clauses complicate the idea of a full tear down. Alvarez, Hader, Correa, and Altuve have full no-trade clauses. Walker has a partial. I don’t see Altuve getting traded. I think the odds are against Correa or Hader being traded. Alvarez is the big question mark.

The other thing that complicates the plan is the GM. If Crane has lost faith in Dana Brown, he probably doesn’t want him executing those major trades. If I’m Crane, I tell Brown to focus on the 2026 draft in a way that will reflect his prowess as a scout LONG TERM. I would tell Brown that there is nothing he can do with the 2026 draft that will impact his job status this year. I’d tell him that my decision about his future will be based on moves he has already made and how he manages the major league roster over the remainder of the season. Then if the club doesn’t perform a miracle to get back into the mix by mid July, I tell Brown to trade the rentals (Okert, Abreu, Vazquez, De Los Santos) for whatever he can get. Then I tell him he can make Brown, Pena, and Paredes available, but that any trade will require my approval. Walker, Alvarez, Altuve, and Correa would not be available unless they request a trade and waive their no trade clause for all teams; I’m not having a potential lame duck GM trade a valuable asset with one hand tied behind his back. My price for the 3 guys who would be shopped:

Brown: 1 MLB Top 25 + 2 MLB Top 75
Pena: 1 MLB Top 50 + 1 MLB Top 100 + 1 Org top 20
Paredes: 1 MLB Top 75 + 2 Org Top 10

Then you just see what happens. If you are able to get those returns for those 3 players, that along with the existing prospects and the 2026 draft result in one of the 2-3 highest rated farms in the league.

It’s a complicated situation because of Altuve, the GM, the Manager, the no-trade clauses, the owner, the injuries, the farm, and the finances. Too many unknowns. But the bottom line from where I sit is that if the run is over, making good trades for Pena and Brown is the one mandatory next step.

 

Where did you pull that 115 number? If that is accurate (I am skeptical), my guess is a significant % of that came from the arms that began 2015 in the DSL. I addressed that in my post. There is no way of knowing if Houston has that much future value in their complex (just as there wasn’t in 2015), but my take was that for the purposes of an exercise like this, it makes sense to assume that they do while making note of it.

 

Wait, now the number is 142? Where are you getting this number?

 

What is that rejection based on? Is it exceedingly rare for any farm to have 115 war across its entire system at any given moment? Do you have anything to back that up? My proposition is based on the value of those 2015 prospects at the time, compared to the value of Houston’s current prospects now. Read through that list of 2025 prospects. Aside from McCullers, none of those players was very highly thought of going into 2015. And none of them went on to be generational talents; it’s a bunch of guys who became middling contributors with a few guys sprinkled in who had a star level season. It’s more than reasonable to assume Houston’s current farm has that caliber of player spread up and down the system.

I’d also note that only 4 of those players went on to post double digit war. 3 of them posted that war FOR OTHER TEAMS.

 

Which site/page did you use to compile your data that gave you 115/142? Mainly just interested in if there is a site that has that historical info readily available; you replied pretty quickly so you either had that already put together or there’s somewhere it is already organized that way. If it is already out there it seems like it’d be easy to sanity check a few farms/orgs to see how much future war they had.

 

The article only analyzed prospects in top prospect lists. That would exclude a lot of the players you cited in your 115/142 number (all the DSL arms plus Laureano).

From your 115 list, Bryan Abreu (in DSL in 2015), Javier (in DSL), and McCullers are the only players who contributed >5 war to the actual Astros. All of the others accumulated their war with other teams, and most of them were traded for a fraction of that value.