There’s still a lot to sort out with these guys over the next couple of years. Here’s how I’d have three tiers of where these guys are as prospects right now with the caveat that I haven’t seen several play a whole lot and I’m probably missing someone. I think in a redraft Reed could go anywhere from 3 to 9. Tier 1 – Sarr and Castle Tier 2 – Reed, Clingan, Buzelis, Ware, Jaylon Tyson, Kyshawn George, Ajay Mitchell Tier 3 – Edey (easily jumps to 2 if he proves he can stay healthy), Holland, Risacher, McCain (could jump to tier 2 soon with consistency), Da Silva, Missi, Collier, Jaylen Wells, Pelle Larsson, Cam Spencer
I'd put it at Castle, Sarr, Reed. However... It's not truly apples to apples considering both Castle and Sarr as rookies had bigger roles and more opportunities than Reed does as a sophomore. If you compare Reed this season to Castle and Sarr last year, which still isn't fair but probably more accurate, then Reed at least moves up into the discussion for #1. For Sarr, you have to consider that he plays for a terrible team, so production will naturally be inflated vs what it would be on a good team. For Castle, you have to consider that he's playing next to the single most dominant two-way player alive, which makes his life considerably easier. Reed's situation and role are considerably more difficult than either of those two. Could be the best thing for him in the long run.
I agree with a decent bit of this though I think a maybe near consensus of front offices in the league would rate Castle higher than Reed right now, putting aside fit. I also agree they might not feel that way had Castle been drafted by the Rockets and Reed by the Spurs. Right now I'd bet on Castle ultimately being the better overall player but it wouldn't be a huge shock if Reed turns out better.
It's too early for this thread especially given how Reed's been handled. Let's check this out after year 4 and see where all these cats are. My prediction that when we revisit this question at that time we'll have the best player from that draft.
A 2024 redraft in about 3 years will have Reed overwhelmingly at #1. He would already be close if Ime had let him play through mistakes last season.
We will never know but I highly suspect that Reed would be scoring around 20 points a game and praised for his efficiency and even defense if he were a Spur. He would have lots of help defensively - more consistent minutes, a clearer lane to drive and better passers next to him. I think Castle would be an offensive disaster on the Rockets. Defensively he would be awesome - but the spacing is terrible.
Yea, I think you wait till year 4 to truly understand the answer to this question. That's when you start to see some consistency and have a good idea what type of player they will be. In 4 years the players that really want to be great will start to show it regardless of what situation they were drafted in. And, the players that were drafted to perfect situations start to flounder when teams figure their tendencies out. The majority of player development happens in a players own time so you'll start to see who is adding new moves and who is not. For Reed specifically, I think I'd like to see if he can be efficient inside the 3pt line and and be a penetration threat. He's fairly athletic so his handle is really the only thing holding him back from being able to consistently beat his man off the dribble. I saw someone quoting how many points he's scored without freethrows - that's not a positive. For him to be a primary scorer he needs to be a threat at the rim as well. On defense, I honestly think he needs to completely change his mindset to be his best. He plays defense like a Tari Eason. He often gets out of position hunting steals and takes himself out of the play. He needs to watch guys like Chris Paul who didn't always make the sexy steal but by staying in front his man longer he made it tougher for the opposing team to score.
And he’d have somewhat free reign to swipe and poke at the ball because he’d have a 7 footer in the paint to clean up his mistakes.
The idea / archetype of Sarr is different than the actual Sarr. The Wemby French bump to get him drafted so high, is not great for him.
He’s a guy that can create and do whatever because Wemby is there. I don’t think people understand how above average he would be on another team
Reed Mitchell Castle Sarr McCain Could be talked into Mitchell over Reed. Mitchell is taller, bigger, and possibly a better ball handler. I think Sarr is very talented but sadly he plays for a clown organization. Maybe rockets can grab him after the Wizards call him a bust and trade him like they did Deni Advija.
I had him at 1 back then and I'd still take him at 1 now. 11.4 BPM!!, 5.0 DBPM, 69.9% TS!!!, 4.6% steal rate, 2.5% block rate, 99th percentile in PnR scoring.. I could go on..his draft profile is full of so many absurd outlier stats.
Smart people know that his skillset is rare, and will only get better, he is a piece you build around, if he were in Golden State he would be an all star already. DD
I think Topic was in the same draft class with Ajay so there is that. After all the setbacks, I think he is more resolved than ever. He might be gone to the Expansion Draft.....
I like Reed’s potential, but some of these rankings don’t mesh with what we’ve seen so far in my opinion. A 6’2” guard without a strong handle isn’t ideal. And especially when u consider the need for significant improvement in his defense. Now, I certainly agree that we can’t rank this draft accurately in yr 2, but so far guys like Clingan and Castle have shown a higher floor. I certainly think Reed can improve his weaknesses, and I would even bet on it. I think he’s a top 5 prospect. But he’s got a steeper hill to climb than some of these other names. Wish he had gotten more consistent minutes throughout the entire season. I do see a big breakout coming in yr 3 given the way he has progressed in yr 2. Just hope Ime doesn’t undermine his development in favor of Fred.
Castle is a 6'3 Amen with a 6'9 wingspan. There's a lot of value in that, just not on this Rockets team. Amen for reference is 6'7 with a 7'0 wingspan. Fast forward 3-5yrs I don't see how Reed isn't the consensus #1 player from this draft. You have to factor into it the idea that the NBA is rigged and will be officiated towards maximizing customer revenues. Cocaine Curry is gonna cook.
